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Old 20-08-2005, 07:46 AM
Cereus-validus.......
 
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Default Global warming? "Evidence" from my garden?

Is that really enough evidence for an indictment?


"Steve Harris" wrote in message
...
1. A have a lungwort that normally flowers in spring. It's just sent up
a couple of stalks with buds on them
2. I have a Cyclamen Coum in flower (no leaves)

Steve Harris - Cheltenham - Real address steve AT netservs DOT com
A useful bit of gardening software at http://www.netservs.com/garden/



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Old 20-08-2005, 09:12 AM
Glittery Gary
 
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"Cereus-validus......." wrote in message
m...
Is that really enough evidence for an indictment?


"Steve Harris" wrote in message
...
1. A have a lungwort that normally flowers in spring. It's just sent up
a couple of stalks with buds on them
2. I have a Cyclamen Coum in flower (no leaves)

Steve Harris - Cheltenham - Real address steve AT netservs DOT com
A useful bit of gardening software at http://www.netservs.com/garden/




it is in Europe now..............


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Old 20-08-2005, 06:15 PM
Ann
 
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"michael adams" expounded:


There are claims even among Global Warming supporting
meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves
are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically
global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream
and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from
the Central Asian landmass to the East.


Actually it's part of a 10-12,000 year cycle, but no one alive was
around for the last one, so they can't imagine time on that scale.
--
Ann, gardening in Zone 6a
South of Boston, Massachusetts
e-mail address is not checked
******************************
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Old 20-08-2005, 07:11 PM
Nick Maclaren
 
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In article ,
michael adams wrote:


There are claims even among Global Warming supporting
meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves
are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically
global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream
and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from
the Central Asian landmass to the East.


Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where
people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not
obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time
the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of
that as a correlated random walk).


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.
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Old 20-08-2005, 07:47 PM
Mike Lyle
 
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Nick Maclaren wrote:
In article ,
michael adams wrote:


There are claims even among Global Warming supporting
meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves
are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because

ironically
global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream
and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from
the Central Asian landmass to the East.


Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where
people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not
obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time
the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of
that as a correlated random walk).


I'll say this for it, though: pdq does mean "pretty damn quick".

--
Mike.




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Old 20-08-2005, 08:49 PM
Nick Maclaren
 
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Default

In article ,
michael adams wrote:

Any extrapolation of climate change based only on around 100 years
worth of hard data of varying quality and reliabilty will
of necessity require a fair amount of conjecture.


That is true, but is seriously misleading, because there is a LOT
more data of adequate quality - if you are up to handling it.

If you're of the opinion that your conjecture is superior to that
of the meteorologists whose opinion I quoted then good for you.


No, my statement is not conjecture. I am a statistician,
incidentally.

To repeat what I said, there is damn-all evidence for a cyclic
phenomenon in this case and, in situations like this one, almost all
cases of apparent cycles are created by something like an ARIMA
process. I could also add that the observations from previous
centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory
that there is a single predominant cycle.

While I am pretty rusty in this aspect of statistics, I could still
explain in more detail than I expect you want to know about this
issue.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.
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Old 20-08-2005, 11:45 PM
adm
 
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Default


"michael adams" wrote in message
...

"Nick Maclaren" wrote in message
...
In article ,
michael adams wrote:


There are claims even among Global Warming supporting
meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves
are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically
global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream
and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from
the Central Asian landmass to the East.


Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where
people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not
obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time
the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of
that as a correlated random walk).


...

Any extrapolation of climate change based only on around 100 years
worth of hard data of varying quality and reliabilty will
of necessity require a fair amount of conjecture.

If you're of the opinion that your conjecture is superior to that
of the meteorologists whose opinion I quoted then good for you.

All else is hand waving IMHO.


There is one thing for sure - it's going to get a whole lot hotter around
here in 6 billion years or so.



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Old 21-08-2005, 12:15 AM
Jaques d'Alltrades
 
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The message
from "michael adams" contains these words:

I can't say fairer than that, now can I?


You didn't ask Dubya, didya?

--
Rusty
Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk
http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/
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Old 21-08-2005, 12:19 AM
Nick Maclaren
 
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Default

In article ,
michael adams wrote:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,1533737,00.html


And you are regarded THAT as being an ACCURATE representation of
what he said? Have you NO experience of how scientific statements
get mangled in the press?

Professor Saunders says that the current situation is a result of
natural climate variability. Drought trends going back more than
100 years show this sort of natural cycle repeating itself time
and again. He also rules out global warming as a contributing
factor since it is expected to cause wetter winters.


And there you can see it. Assuming that he knows his statistics,
the first sentence is likely to be an accurate representation of
what he said, but the term 'natural cycle' was almost certainly
introduced as a loose description by the reporter.

I'm not in the habit of posting unsupported rubbish on NewsGroups


Then please don't do so again.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.
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Old 21-08-2005, 11:30 AM
Jan Flora
 
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Default

In article ,
Ann wrote:

"michael adams" expounded:


There are claims even among Global Warming supporting
meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves
are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically
global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream
and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from
the Central Asian landmass to the East.


Actually it's part of a 10-12,000 year cycle, but no one alive was
around for the last one, so they can't imagine time on that scale.


Ice cores from Greenland indicate that the last "little" ice age
came on in 7 years. That was the one that killed people in N. Europe,
a couple of hundred years ago.

The University of Alaska Fairbanks sends a team over to Greenland
every year to drill the ice. If anyone wants to look this stuff
up, hit the UAF website. (Probably the geophysical dept.)

People moved over here to Alaska during the last "big" ice age.
They've found tools and stuff that date to 10K YBP up near Old Crow
in the Yukon Territory, right across the present Alaska/Canada border,
up above the Yukon River. (Up the Porcupine River.)

This little blue planet will revoke our permission to live on it
any damned time it feels like it, with no advance notice. So in
the mean time, grow a nice garden and try to be kind to people.
(Unless they're idiots, twits or trolls.)

Jan

--
The way to a man's heart is between the fourth and the fifth rib.


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Old 21-08-2005, 12:02 PM
Nick Maclaren
 
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Default

In article ,
Jaques d'Alltrades wrote:
The message
from "michael adams" contains these words:

I can't say fairer than that, now can I?


You didn't ask Dubya, didya?


No, but he clearly learnt his science from the same source.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.
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Old 21-08-2005, 12:58 PM
Mike Lyle
 
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Default

michael adams wrote:
[...]
Although lying about people seems a particular speciality of
yours.

As it is with most Crackpots of course.

More especially once they start to feel the heat.

[...]

Michael, I can't help wondering why you use such an aggressive style
in discussion. It's awfully off-putting. I seem to remember having
been on the wrong end of it myself on one occasion (perhaps I started
it: I really can't remember). Surely if you have the evidence and
present it clearly, it will speak for itself: the issue is far too
interesting to get emotional about. Nick gets distinctly blunt at
times, but ratcheting up isn't the way to deal with it.

--
Mike.


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Old 21-08-2005, 02:48 PM
Cereus-validus.......
 
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Default

It seems clear that the reason for this year's heat wave is the lack of
particulate matter in the atmosphere blocking out the solar radiation.

What needs to be done is to encourage pollution worldwide to block out the
bad radiation so we can cool down the planet just a little!!!!

Duby's hare-brained solution to the problem almost seems to make sense. We
need to burn a lot more coal!!!


"Nick Maclaren" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Jaques d'Alltrades wrote:
The message
from "michael adams" contains these words:

I can't say fairer than that, now can I?


You didn't ask Dubya, didya?


No, but he clearly learnt his science from the same source.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.



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Old 21-08-2005, 07:20 PM
Jaques d'Alltrades
 
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The message
from "michael adams" contains these words:

So if the drought trends aren't decribing 'cycles' precisely what are
they describing ?


Trends, perhaps?

--
Rusty
Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk
http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/
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