In article ,
Ermalina wrote:
Bill Oliver wrote:



Possible transmission of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease by blood
transfusion.


Note the *possible.*

of vCJD. INTERPRETATION: Our findings raise the possibility that this
infection was transfusion transmitted.

Or not.

Infection in the recipient could
have been due to past dietary exposure to the BSE agent.

Oh.

However, the
age of the patient was well beyond that of most vCJD cases, and the
chance of observing a case of vCJD in a recipient in the absence of
transfusion transmitted infection is about 1 in 15000 to 1 in 30000.

And what was the chance of observing a case of vCJD in a random
transfusion?

That was the question I asked.

I didn't claim that it was impossible. Once again, I am noting that
small risks should be identified as small. As noted in the article you quote,
this is not, in fact, a proven case. But even if it is, the existence
of *one* case after all these years indicates the miniscule risk.

Once again, what *is* the calculated risk? With the presence of
one *possible* case, the hysteria that abounds is hardly appropriate.


billo