In article ,
David Hill wrote:

This is getting ridiculous, so I shall stop here.

How the hell anyone can forecast our weather is beyond me.
Here this morning we had a drizzle with a few heavy showers, but about
half a mile away as the crow flies on the M4 below us it was bone dry,
but within 2 miles I was back on wet roads.
So who's forecast would have been right?
On the way back from the hospital just 4 miles away I drove through
heavy rain shower, but back here the ground was bone dry.

That is precisely why better predictions would be more probabilistic,
such as:

Swansea Bay. Patchy light rain and occasional heavy showers,
with a 60% chance of any precipitation and a 5% chance of 4-6 mm
of precipitation. More than 10 mm anywhere is unlikely.

With that, you know what to expect. You may not know what any
one location will get, but that is not predictable (even in theory).

I have observed the effect you describe cycling back from work,
which is a mere 3.5 miles away.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.