On Thu, 7 Nov 2002 03:48:45 -0600, "Gordon Couger"
wrote:

Torsten,

Has a trend devolved yet that would indicate that a peak is nearing ..

You are making reference to some thought imagine of a 'normal'
epidemic curve, I think, more or less bell-shaped with a tail. I don't
think our knowledge of the disease gives us basis for assuming such a
model.

Anyhow, if it is assumed, there is no clear indication in data where
we are in this assumed progressive development in relation to a peak.
Said otherwise, one can find support in data for us being as well
past, on, or nearing a peak. Past-peakers might note the decreasing
trend in vCJD deaths since about autumn 2000; on-peakers and
nearing-peakers, that the current incidence does not stand out
as particularly high or particularly low compared to the incidence
the previous 3-4 years.