"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 7 Nov 2002 03:48:45 -0600, "Gordon Couger"
wrote:

Torsten,

Has a trend devolved yet that would indicate that a peak is nearing ..

You are making reference to some thought imagine of a 'normal'
epidemic curve, I think, more or less bell-shaped with a tail. I don't
think our knowledge of the disease gives us basis for assuming such a
model.

Anyhow, if it is assumed, there is no clear indication in data where
we are in this assumed progressive development in relation to a peak.
Said otherwise, one can find support in data for us being as well
past, on, or nearing a peak. Past-peakers might note the decreasing
trend in vCJD deaths since about autumn 2000; on-peakers and
nearing-peakers, that the current incidence does not stand out
as particularly high or particularly low compared to the incidence
the previous 3-4 years.

It wouldn't be bell shaped. I am exactly sure what the curve of an emerging
diseases looks like it would be different for each one, but the fear was
that it would be like growth curve of bacteria with a slow early phase and
very rapid log phase. Other diseases have shown this kind of explosive out
break. So the early predictions have a very wide range of out comes and of
course the press picked up on the one that sold the most papers.

Fortunately humans appear to poor hosts for vCJD. It face cattle don't
appear to be very good hosts for it either.

Flat curves are good for vCJD declining would be better.
--
Gordon

Couger
Stillwater, OK
www.couger.com/gcouger