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Old 20-09-2003, 11:03 PM
Fred Elbel
 
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Default World food supply

On 19 Sep 2003 20:17:46 -0700, wrote:

Unfortunately, you took my misstatement and followed it with several
non-sequiturs clouding the issue even further.


The information I posted is accurated and substantiated.



I intended to
reference the birth rate in the US, not population growth including
immigration which is largely irrelevant to the discussion at hand.


Well, perhaps I didn't understand the discussion at hand accurately
enough, so I apologize for that.

But the fact is that U.S. population is projected to double this
century. That will mean twice the demand for food, water, housing
cars, prisons, hospitals, etc.


World food stores are not going to be depleted because people move
from relatively impoverished to relatively wealthy nations.


"World" food stores? Yes, surplus grain currently is shipped between
countries. But with U.S. population doubling, the U.S. will cease to
become a net food exporter.


One would
also expect that as immigrants integrate into the US their birth rates
will drop as well,


That is true, but fertility of immigrants remains above replacement
level. According to a National Center for Health Statistics 2000
report, the total fertility rate of Hispanic women at 3.1 was higher
than the national fertility rate, with the highest rates for Mexican
women (3.3) and Puerto Rican women (2.6) and the lowest rate for Cuban
women (1.9). It should be noted that fertility of Hispanic women in
California has decreased from approximately 4.5 in 1991 but is still
higher than the fertility of native Mexican women.

This means that as the proportion of higher-fertility groups
increases, total U.S. fertility will be driven upwards and population
growth will increase commensurately.

Interestingly, in 2000, more than one-third of all births were to
unmarried women, up from 33% in 1999. Birth rates increased for
unmarried women in all age groups except teenagers, whose rates
continued to decline.


and whatever you claim about immigration, the US
birth rate is still at a 12 year low.


It is unfortunately increasing.



Many more problems would be reduced by opening US borders to any any
healthy, non-criminal immigrant than trying to enforce some draconian
immigration laws.


I am surprised at your zealous advocacy of open borders. There are
about 4 billion people in other countries who live at less than
Mexico's average standard of living. (Incidentally, Mexico is a rich
country, but does not share its wealth outside of its elite).

Most of these 4 billion would likely want to move to the U.S. if given
a chance. The U.S. can not absorb even a small fraction of them. The
only viable solution is to help people where they live, not play a
shell game of moving people from country to country in hopes of
solving overpopulation and economic problems.


Bye, bye huddled masses. Hello, eco-police state.


Huddled masses? Bring 4 billion people into the U.S. and that's what
you'll have - even after mass starvation.

Eco-police state? It's called a nation. In fact, our laws are quite
clear: we permit only a million legal aliens to enter our country
every year and indeed that level of migration is causing our
population to double.

Fred Elbel
 
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