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#1
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weather and bee behavior
an extract from the ABC Website regarding
www.abc.net.au From this page http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/stories/s739932.htm In the beginning of 1998 Katherine had the biggest flood in a century. Six months later, half of NSW also saw massive floods. Peter Norville says the wet season is definitely linked to rainfall down south. BRIGID GLANVILLE: In Alice Springs an apiarist is well known for his predictions of rainfall by watching the behaviour of his bees. On a number of occasions when the bees start closing off the entrances to the hives it's meant big rainfall is on the way. His following is also legendary. PETER NORVILLE: There's no question about it. When you've got a decent wet season happening across the top of Australia, some of the cloud that builds with that can't help but flow down through central Australia and into NSW. It's got to give you a slightly better chance at the very least of getting something happening in our own backyard. BRIGID GLANVILLE: So what are we seeing at the moment in the Territory and what's likely to come down south? PETER NORVILLE: It tried to get underway with the wet season there a few weeks back and then sort of fizzled out. And just in the last five or six days it's happening again now. There's been some really good cloud up there around about last weekend, and certainly some cloud drifting down through our state at the moment. And all we need is a decent pressure system to actually help to activate that. Hopefully that wet season type cloud up there already has moisture with it. BRIGID GLANVILLE: While Peter Norville admits the Bureau of Meteorology is accurate for predicting temperatures, he says they don't have the technology to predict rainfall, so he looks to south Asia for movement. PETER NORVILLE: Well, the most important thing to me is what call "the window". And with the technology that's available today on the Internet with weather information satellites looking down on earth and satellite photos, it's wonderful. It opened a window to us. It's a bit like the person who lives and works in the city, in an office, can't see outside. We have this massive window to the globe. We can see what's going on. And when I suddenly started to see this some years back, I said, look, the Bay of Bengal. Look at those cloud bands that are forming around there. And over a few days you would watch them drift down towards Western Australia. And then I'd notice that pattern would stop. It happens at different times. At the moment the Bay of Bengal is hardly doing a thing, I would suggest for us. The Bureau admits there may be a coincidence with a good wet season and above average rainfall down south. But they don't rely on it for forecasts. BLAIR TREWIN: It happens sometimes and there've certainly been quite a few instances in the past when very good wet seasons in the north have been followed by wet years in the south. 1974 was a very good example of that, also 2000 in a lot of places. |
#2
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weather and bee behavior
"Jonno" wrote in message
u... an extract from the ABC Website regarding www.abc.net.au From this page http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/stories/s739932.htm ????? How is this relevant? The article is from 2002!!!!!!! and the so called "prediction" for a decent rainfall in southern Australia the following year was way off the mark! We're into our SIXTH year of drought now with rainfalls consistently at least a third lower than they should be. In the beginning of 1998 Katherine had the biggest flood in a century. Six months later, half of NSW also saw massive floods. Peter Norville says the wet season is definitely linked to rainfall down south. BRIGID GLANVILLE: In Alice Springs an apiarist is well known for his predictions of rainfall by watching the behaviour of his bees. On a number of occasions when the bees start closing off the entrances to the hives it's meant big rainfall is on the way. His following is also legendary. PETER NORVILLE: There's no question about it. When you've got a decent wet season happening across the top of Australia, some of the cloud that builds with that can't help but flow down through central Australia and into NSW. It's got to give you a slightly better chance at the very least of getting something happening in our own backyard. BRIGID GLANVILLE: So what are we seeing at the moment in the Territory and what's likely to come down south? PETER NORVILLE: It tried to get underway with the wet season there a few weeks back and then sort of fizzled out. And just in the last five or six days it's happening again now. There's been some really good cloud up there around about last weekend, and certainly some cloud drifting down through our state at the moment. And all we need is a decent pressure system to actually help to activate that. Hopefully that wet season type cloud up there already has moisture with it. BRIGID GLANVILLE: While Peter Norville admits the Bureau of Meteorology is accurate for predicting temperatures, he says they don't have the technology to predict rainfall, so he looks to south Asia for movement. PETER NORVILLE: Well, the most important thing to me is what call "the window". And with the technology that's available today on the Internet with weather information satellites looking down on earth and satellite photos, it's wonderful. It opened a window to us. It's a bit like the person who lives and works in the city, in an office, can't see outside. We have this massive window to the globe. We can see what's going on. And when I suddenly started to see this some years back, I said, look, the Bay of Bengal. Look at those cloud bands that are forming around there. And over a few days you would watch them drift down towards Western Australia. And then I'd notice that pattern would stop. It happens at different times. At the moment the Bay of Bengal is hardly doing a thing, I would suggest for us. The Bureau admits there may be a coincidence with a good wet season and above average rainfall down south. But they don't rely on it for forecasts. BLAIR TREWIN: It happens sometimes and there've certainly been quite a few instances in the past when very good wet seasons in the north have been followed by wet years in the south. 1974 was a very good example of that, also 2000 in a lot of places. |
#3
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weather and bee behavior
In article ,
"Farm1" please@askifyouwannaknow wrote: ????? How is this relevant? The article is from 2002!!!!!!! and the so called "prediction" for a decent rainfall in southern Australia the following year was way off the mark! We're into our SIXTH year of drought now with rainfalls consistently at least a third lower than they should be. I have a question. What *is* the rainfall that you should have? At what point do we call it drought? Isn't drought just the rough end of the pineapple of variance, and something we should expect and allow for? I am just wondering about our averages, and whether in fact there are many years where rainfall is near-average (either in your area or mine). Could it be that in some places we get either wet or drought years, without too many in the middle? Sydney is having another dry summer but it is not as dry as last year IMO. The BOM don't have the Dec rainfall figures out yet, but I am guessing they are only a bit below average. Temps seem lower too, and it is more humid (though not actually *high* humidity; it's been about 50% this week). Wonder how many scorchers we'll get this February? -- Chookie -- Sydney, Australia (Replace "foulspambegone" with "optushome" to reply) "Parenthood is like the modern stone washing process for denim jeans. You may start out crisp, neat and tough, but you end up pale, limp and wrinkled." Kerry Cue |
#4
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weather and bee behavior
"Chookie" wrote in message
"Farm1" please@askifyouwannaknow wrote: ????? How is this relevant? The article is from 2002!!!!!!! and the so called "prediction" for a decent rainfall in southern Australia the following year was way off the mark! We're into our SIXTH year of drought now with rainfalls consistently at least a third lower than they should be. I have a question. What *is* the rainfall that you should have? At what point do we call it drought? Isn't drought just the rough end of the pineapple of variance, and something we should expect and allow for? I am just wondering about our averages, and whether in fact there are many years where rainfall is near-average (either in your area or mine). Could it be that in some places we get either wet or drought years, without too many in the middle? Just very qucikly as I have to go and do somethign about dinner. I think you need to consider trends and variations from the averages. For example the trend has been for lower rainfall in many parts in Aus for at least a 30 year period - SW WA is one area where the trend has been downward in that time. Averages are just that over the lifetime of rainfall records and we cna be up or down from that in any one year. What seems to be happening here is that the rainfall is falling in a different way - eg big drops alla t one rather than over a longer term. sorry this is garbled I know and I'll have to think about it and correct later on. Sydney is having another dry summer but it is not as dry as last year IMO. The BOM don't have the Dec rainfall figures out yet, but I am guessing they are only a bit below average. Temps seem lower too, and it is more humid (though not actually *high* humidity; it's been about 50% this week). Wonder how many scorchers we'll get this February? -- Chookie -- Sydney, Australia (Replace "foulspambegone" with "optushome" to reply) "Parenthood is like the modern stone washing process for denim jeans. You may start out crisp, neat and tough, but you end up pale, limp and wrinkled." Kerry Cue |
#5
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weather and bee behavior
Well actually there was a prediction some 5 to 6 weeks ago, on the ABC,
which predicted heavy falls. I couldnt find that article, but substituted this one. So nature does make some mistakes, or we dont interpret it well enough. I wondered if anyone noticed the ants running 4 lane highways through their place? Mine certainly were presistant. Gee I hate argentinian ants. I would really suggest the weather buerau keep some bees etc...and study them regarding weather predictions. The solar flares also seem to have something to do with it. Any one know about Inego Jones? Farm1 wrote: "Jonno" wrote in message u... an extract from the ABC Website regarding www.abc.net.au From this page http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/stories/s739932.htm ????? How is this relevant? The article is from 2002!!!!!!! and the so called "prediction" for a decent rainfall in southern Australia the following year was way off the mark! We're into our SIXTH year of drought now with rainfalls consistently at least a third lower than they should be. In the beginning of 1998 Katherine had the biggest flood in a century. Six months later, half of NSW also saw massive floods. Peter Norville says the wet season is definitely linked to rainfall down south. BRIGID GLANVILLE: In Alice Springs an apiarist is well known for his predictions of rainfall by watching the behaviour of his bees. On a number of occasions when the bees start closing off the entrances to the hives it's meant big rainfall is on the way. His following is also legendary. PETER NORVILLE: There's no question about it. When you've got a decent wet season happening across the top of Australia, some of the cloud that builds with that can't help but flow down through central Australia and into NSW. It's got to give you a slightly better chance at the very least of getting something happening in our own backyard. BRIGID GLANVILLE: So what are we seeing at the moment in the Territory and what's likely to come down south? PETER NORVILLE: It tried to get underway with the wet season there a few weeks back and then sort of fizzled out. And just in the last five or six days it's happening again now. There's been some really good cloud up there around about last weekend, and certainly some cloud drifting down through our state at the moment. And all we need is a decent pressure system to actually help to activate that. Hopefully that wet season type cloud up there already has moisture with it. BRIGID GLANVILLE: While Peter Norville admits the Bureau of Meteorology is accurate for predicting temperatures, he says they don't have the technology to predict rainfall, so he looks to south Asia for movement. PETER NORVILLE: Well, the most important thing to me is what call "the window". And with the technology that's available today on the Internet with weather information satellites looking down on earth and satellite photos, it's wonderful. It opened a window to us. It's a bit like the person who lives and works in the city, in an office, can't see outside. We have this massive window to the globe. We can see what's going on. And when I suddenly started to see this some years back, I said, look, the Bay of Bengal. Look at those cloud bands that are forming around there. And over a few days you would watch them drift down towards Western Australia. And then I'd notice that pattern would stop. It happens at different times. At the moment the Bay of Bengal is hardly doing a thing, I would suggest for us. The Bureau admits there may be a coincidence with a good wet season and above average rainfall down south. But they don't rely on it for forecasts. BLAIR TREWIN: It happens sometimes and there've certainly been quite a few instances in the past when very good wet seasons in the north have been followed by wet years in the south. 1974 was a very good example of that, also 2000 in a lot of places. |
#6
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weather and bee behavior
Jonno wrote:
So nature does make some mistakes, Nope,nature never makes a mistake. Only humans. or we dont interpret it well enough. Which makes your second option the correct one. |
#7
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weather and bee behavior
In article ,
"Farm1" please@askifyouwannaknow wrote: Just very qucikly as I have to go and do somethign about dinner. I think you need to consider trends and variations from the averages. For example the trend has been for lower rainfall in many parts in Aus for at least a 30 year period - SW WA is one area where the trend has been downward in that time. Averages are just that over the lifetime of rainfall records and we cna be up or down from that in any one year. The BOM uses a 30-year average, I think. Yes, it was the variance I was interested in, not the mean. What seems to be happening here is that the rainfall is falling in a different way - eg big drops alla t one rather than over a longer term. sorry this is garbled I know and I'll have to think about it and correct later on. One change I've noticed is that back in the Old Days, highs and lows would head up out of the Bight and drift in an arc across NSW. Now, they aren't centred on the Bight and the arc takes them up into southern Qld. That pulls more monsoon rain into Central Australia, but leaves the south-east of the continent drier. Not sure if this is part of El Nino or separate. -- Chookie -- Sydney, Australia (Replace "foulspambegone" with "optushome" to reply) "Parenthood is like the modern stone washing process for denim jeans. You may start out crisp, neat and tough, but you end up pale, limp and wrinkled." Kerry Cue |
#8
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weather and bee behavior
"Chookie" wrote in message
... In article , "Farm1" please@askifyouwannaknow wrote: Just very qucikly as I have to go and do somethign about dinner. I think you need to consider trends and variations from the averages. For example the trend has been for lower rainfall in many parts in Aus for at least a 30 year period - SW WA is one area where the trend has been downward in that time. Averages are just that over the lifetime of rainfall records and we cna be up or down from that in any one year. The BOM uses a 30-year average, I think. Yes, it was the variance I was interested in, not the mean. afair, the 40s & 50s were "unusually" wet in aust (compared to prior to that) but in some people's minds that would have become what is an "average", or what you could "expect". but it's been drier since then - that was "unusual". the famous "federation drought" & such, well - i don't know. at that point people hadn't been keeping records for all that long, so frankly it makes me wonder if our rainfall has not _always_ been compared to england or ireland, and to do so would clearly make almost any year a "drought" :-) i think it's only recently there have been records kept for consistently long periods that you can get a real overview, but that's jmo. i just think that in term's of the earth's life & overall patterns, 100 years is nothing, really. One change I've noticed is that back in the Old Days, highs and lows would head up out of the Bight and drift in an arc across NSW. Now, they aren't centred on the Bight and the arc takes them up into southern Qld. That pulls more monsoon rain into Central Australia, but leaves the south-east of the continent drier. Not sure if this is part of El Nino or separate. el nino is still operating. the Powers That Be (weather nerds) expect the effect to have passed by april or so, & for rain to return to "normal". i am however not really sure there's ever been any agreement about what is "normal"!! :-) what is "normal"? the other day we were in town & a storm passed through - it rained 35mm in about 1/2 hour. at our place, we got less than 2mm. the difference is only about 12km as the crow flies. it regularly rains at our place but not at the end of our road (or vice versa). kylie |
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