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Old 20-01-2007, 02:32 AM posted to aus.gardens
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Default weather and bee behavior

an extract from the ABC Website regarding
www.abc.net.au From this page
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/stories/s739932.htm


In the beginning of 1998 Katherine had the biggest flood in a century.
Six months later, half of NSW also saw massive floods. Peter Norville
says the wet season is definitely linked to rainfall down south.

BRIGID GLANVILLE: In Alice Springs an apiarist is well known for his
predictions of rainfall by watching the behaviour of his bees. On a
number of occasions when the bees start closing off the entrances to the
hives it's meant big rainfall is on the way. His following is also
legendary.

PETER NORVILLE: There's no question about it. When you've got a decent
wet season happening across the top of Australia, some of the cloud that
builds with that can't help but flow down through central Australia and
into NSW. It's got to give you a slightly better chance at the very
least of getting something happening in our own backyard.

BRIGID GLANVILLE: So what are we seeing at the moment in the Territory
and what's likely to come down south?

PETER NORVILLE: It tried to get underway with the wet season there a few
weeks back and then sort of fizzled out. And just in the last five or
six days it's happening again now. There's been some really good cloud
up there around about last weekend, and certainly some cloud drifting
down through our state at the moment. And all we need is a decent
pressure system to actually help to activate that. Hopefully that wet
season type cloud up there already has moisture with it.

BRIGID GLANVILLE: While Peter Norville admits the Bureau of Meteorology
is accurate for predicting temperatures, he says they don't have the
technology to predict rainfall, so he looks to south Asia for movement.

PETER NORVILLE: Well, the most important thing to me is what call "the
window". And with the technology that's available today on the Internet
with weather information satellites looking down on earth and satellite
photos, it's wonderful. It opened a window to us. It's a bit like the
person who lives and works in the city, in an office, can't see outside.
We have this massive window to the globe. We can see what's going on.

And when I suddenly started to see this some years back, I said, look,
the Bay of Bengal. Look at those cloud bands that are forming around
there. And over a few days you would watch them drift down towards
Western Australia. And then I'd notice that pattern would stop. It
happens at different times. At the moment the Bay of Bengal is hardly
doing a thing, I would suggest for us.



The Bureau admits there may be a coincidence with a good wet season and
above average rainfall down south. But they don't rely on it for forecasts.

BLAIR TREWIN: It happens sometimes and there've certainly been quite a
few instances in the past when very good wet seasons in the north have
been followed by wet years in the south. 1974 was a very good example of
that, also 2000 in a lot of places.
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Old 20-01-2007, 06:36 AM posted to aus.gardens
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Posts: 735
Default weather and bee behavior

"Jonno" wrote in message
u...
an extract from the ABC Website regarding
www.abc.net.au From this page
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/stories/s739932.htm


????? How is this relevant? The article is from 2002!!!!!!! and the
so called "prediction" for a decent rainfall in southern Australia the
following year was way off the mark! We're into our SIXTH year of
drought now with rainfalls consistently at least a third lower than
they should be.


In the beginning of 1998 Katherine had the biggest flood in a

century.
Six months later, half of NSW also saw massive floods. Peter

Norville
says the wet season is definitely linked to rainfall down south.

BRIGID GLANVILLE: In Alice Springs an apiarist is well known for his
predictions of rainfall by watching the behaviour of his bees. On a
number of occasions when the bees start closing off the entrances to

the
hives it's meant big rainfall is on the way. His following is also
legendary.

PETER NORVILLE: There's no question about it. When you've got a

decent
wet season happening across the top of Australia, some of the cloud

that
builds with that can't help but flow down through central Australia

and
into NSW. It's got to give you a slightly better chance at the very
least of getting something happening in our own backyard.

BRIGID GLANVILLE: So what are we seeing at the moment in the

Territory
and what's likely to come down south?

PETER NORVILLE: It tried to get underway with the wet season there a

few
weeks back and then sort of fizzled out. And just in the last five

or
six days it's happening again now. There's been some really good

cloud
up there around about last weekend, and certainly some cloud

drifting
down through our state at the moment. And all we need is a decent
pressure system to actually help to activate that. Hopefully that

wet
season type cloud up there already has moisture with it.

BRIGID GLANVILLE: While Peter Norville admits the Bureau of

Meteorology
is accurate for predicting temperatures, he says they don't have the
technology to predict rainfall, so he looks to south Asia for

movement.

PETER NORVILLE: Well, the most important thing to me is what call

"the
window". And with the technology that's available today on the

Internet
with weather information satellites looking down on earth and

satellite
photos, it's wonderful. It opened a window to us. It's a bit like

the
person who lives and works in the city, in an office, can't see

outside.
We have this massive window to the globe. We can see what's going

on.

And when I suddenly started to see this some years back, I said,

look,
the Bay of Bengal. Look at those cloud bands that are forming around
there. And over a few days you would watch them drift down towards
Western Australia. And then I'd notice that pattern would stop. It
happens at different times. At the moment the Bay of Bengal is

hardly
doing a thing, I would suggest for us.



The Bureau admits there may be a coincidence with a good wet season

and
above average rainfall down south. But they don't rely on it for

forecasts.

BLAIR TREWIN: It happens sometimes and there've certainly been quite

a
few instances in the past when very good wet seasons in the north

have
been followed by wet years in the south. 1974 was a very good

example of
that, also 2000 in a lot of places.



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Old 20-01-2007, 08:16 AM posted to aus.gardens
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Posts: 301
Default weather and bee behavior

In article ,
"Farm1" please@askifyouwannaknow wrote:

????? How is this relevant? The article is from 2002!!!!!!! and the
so called "prediction" for a decent rainfall in southern Australia the
following year was way off the mark! We're into our SIXTH year of
drought now with rainfalls consistently at least a third lower than
they should be.


I have a question. What *is* the rainfall that you should have? At what
point do we call it drought? Isn't drought just the rough end of the
pineapple of variance, and something we should expect and allow for? I am
just wondering about our averages, and whether in fact there are many years
where rainfall is near-average (either in your area or mine). Could it be
that in some places we get either wet or drought years, without too many in
the middle?

Sydney is having another dry summer but it is not as dry as last year IMO.
The BOM don't have the Dec rainfall figures out yet, but I am guessing they
are only a bit below average. Temps seem lower too, and it is more humid
(though not actually *high* humidity; it's been about 50% this week). Wonder
how many scorchers we'll get this February?

--
Chookie -- Sydney, Australia
(Replace "foulspambegone" with "optushome" to reply)

"Parenthood is like the modern stone washing process for denim jeans. You may
start out crisp, neat and tough, but you end up pale, limp and wrinkled."
Kerry Cue
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Old 20-01-2007, 09:49 AM posted to aus.gardens
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First recorded activity by GardenBanter: Jul 2006
Posts: 735
Default weather and bee behavior

"Chookie" wrote in message
"Farm1" please@askifyouwannaknow wrote:

????? How is this relevant? The article is from 2002!!!!!!! and

the
so called "prediction" for a decent rainfall in southern Australia

the
following year was way off the mark! We're into our SIXTH year of
drought now with rainfalls consistently at least a third lower

than
they should be.


I have a question. What *is* the rainfall that you should have? At

what
point do we call it drought? Isn't drought just the rough end of

the
pineapple of variance, and something we should expect and allow for?

I am
just wondering about our averages, and whether in fact there are

many years
where rainfall is near-average (either in your area or mine). Could

it be
that in some places we get either wet or drought years, without too

many in
the middle?


Just very qucikly as I have to go and do somethign about dinner. I
think you need to consider trends and variations from the averages.
For example the trend has been for lower rainfall in many parts in Aus
for at least a 30 year period - SW WA is one area where the trend has
been downward in that time. Averages are just that over the lifetime
of rainfall records and we cna be up or down from that in any one
year.

What seems to be happening here is that the rainfall is falling in a
different way - eg big drops alla t one rather than over a longer
term.

sorry this is garbled I know and I'll have to think about it and
correct later on.

Sydney is having another dry summer but it is not as dry as last

year IMO.
The BOM don't have the Dec rainfall figures out yet, but I am

guessing they
are only a bit below average. Temps seem lower too, and it is more

humid
(though not actually *high* humidity; it's been about 50% this

week). Wonder
how many scorchers we'll get this February?

--
Chookie -- Sydney, Australia
(Replace "foulspambegone" with "optushome" to reply)

"Parenthood is like the modern stone washing process for denim

jeans. You may
start out crisp, neat and tough, but you end up pale, limp and

wrinkled."
Kerry Cue



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Old 20-01-2007, 10:32 AM posted to aus.gardens
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First recorded activity by GardenBanter: Jan 2007
Posts: 183
Default weather and bee behavior

Well actually there was a prediction some 5 to 6 weeks ago, on the ABC,
which predicted heavy falls. I couldnt find that article, but
substituted this one. So nature does make some mistakes, or we dont
interpret it well enough.
I wondered if anyone noticed the ants running 4 lane highways through
their place? Mine certainly were presistant. Gee I hate argentinian ants.
I would really suggest the weather buerau keep some bees etc...and study
them regarding weather predictions.
The solar flares also seem to have something to do with it.
Any one know about Inego Jones?



Farm1 wrote:
"Jonno" wrote in message
u...

an extract from the ABC Website regarding
www.abc.net.au From this page
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/stories/s739932.htm



????? How is this relevant? The article is from 2002!!!!!!! and the
so called "prediction" for a decent rainfall in southern Australia the
following year was way off the mark! We're into our SIXTH year of
drought now with rainfalls consistently at least a third lower than
they should be.



In the beginning of 1998 Katherine had the biggest flood in a


century.

Six months later, half of NSW also saw massive floods. Peter


Norville

says the wet season is definitely linked to rainfall down south.

BRIGID GLANVILLE: In Alice Springs an apiarist is well known for his
predictions of rainfall by watching the behaviour of his bees. On a
number of occasions when the bees start closing off the entrances to


the

hives it's meant big rainfall is on the way. His following is also
legendary.

PETER NORVILLE: There's no question about it. When you've got a


decent

wet season happening across the top of Australia, some of the cloud


that

builds with that can't help but flow down through central Australia


and

into NSW. It's got to give you a slightly better chance at the very
least of getting something happening in our own backyard.

BRIGID GLANVILLE: So what are we seeing at the moment in the


Territory

and what's likely to come down south?

PETER NORVILLE: It tried to get underway with the wet season there a


few

weeks back and then sort of fizzled out. And just in the last five


or

six days it's happening again now. There's been some really good


cloud

up there around about last weekend, and certainly some cloud


drifting

down through our state at the moment. And all we need is a decent
pressure system to actually help to activate that. Hopefully that


wet

season type cloud up there already has moisture with it.

BRIGID GLANVILLE: While Peter Norville admits the Bureau of


Meteorology

is accurate for predicting temperatures, he says they don't have the
technology to predict rainfall, so he looks to south Asia for


movement.

PETER NORVILLE: Well, the most important thing to me is what call


"the

window". And with the technology that's available today on the


Internet

with weather information satellites looking down on earth and


satellite

photos, it's wonderful. It opened a window to us. It's a bit like


the

person who lives and works in the city, in an office, can't see


outside.

We have this massive window to the globe. We can see what's going


on.

And when I suddenly started to see this some years back, I said,


look,

the Bay of Bengal. Look at those cloud bands that are forming around
there. And over a few days you would watch them drift down towards
Western Australia. And then I'd notice that pattern would stop. It
happens at different times. At the moment the Bay of Bengal is


hardly

doing a thing, I would suggest for us.



The Bureau admits there may be a coincidence with a good wet season


and

above average rainfall down south. But they don't rely on it for


forecasts.

BLAIR TREWIN: It happens sometimes and there've certainly been quite


a

few instances in the past when very good wet seasons in the north


have

been followed by wet years in the south. 1974 was a very good


example of

that, also 2000 in a lot of places.






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Old 20-01-2007, 03:31 PM posted to aus.gardens
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Posts: 149
Default weather and bee behavior

Jonno wrote:
So nature does make some mistakes,


Nope,nature never makes a mistake. Only humans.

or we dont interpret it well enough.


Which makes your second option the correct one.
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Old 21-01-2007, 12:38 PM posted to aus.gardens
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Posts: 301
Default weather and bee behavior

In article ,
"Farm1" please@askifyouwannaknow wrote:

Just very qucikly as I have to go and do somethign about dinner. I
think you need to consider trends and variations from the averages.
For example the trend has been for lower rainfall in many parts in Aus
for at least a 30 year period - SW WA is one area where the trend has
been downward in that time. Averages are just that over the lifetime
of rainfall records and we cna be up or down from that in any one
year.


The BOM uses a 30-year average, I think. Yes, it was the variance I was
interested in, not the mean.

What seems to be happening here is that the rainfall is falling in a
different way - eg big drops alla t one rather than over a longer
term.

sorry this is garbled I know and I'll have to think about it and
correct later on.


One change I've noticed is that back in the Old Days, highs and lows would
head up out of the Bight and drift in an arc across NSW. Now, they aren't
centred on the Bight and the arc takes them up into southern Qld. That pulls
more monsoon rain into Central Australia, but leaves the south-east of the
continent drier. Not sure if this is part of El Nino or separate.

--
Chookie -- Sydney, Australia
(Replace "foulspambegone" with "optushome" to reply)

"Parenthood is like the modern stone washing process for denim jeans. You may
start out crisp, neat and tough, but you end up pale, limp and wrinkled."
Kerry Cue
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Old 23-01-2007, 12:38 AM posted to aus.gardens
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First recorded activity by GardenBanter: Jul 2006
Posts: 713
Default weather and bee behavior

"Chookie" wrote in message
...
In article ,
"Farm1" please@askifyouwannaknow wrote:

Just very qucikly as I have to go and do somethign about dinner. I
think you need to consider trends and variations from the averages.
For example the trend has been for lower rainfall in many parts in Aus
for at least a 30 year period - SW WA is one area where the trend has
been downward in that time. Averages are just that over the lifetime
of rainfall records and we cna be up or down from that in any one
year.


The BOM uses a 30-year average, I think. Yes, it was the variance I was
interested in, not the mean.


afair, the 40s & 50s were "unusually" wet in aust (compared to prior to
that) but in some people's minds that would have become what is an
"average", or what you could "expect". but it's been drier since then - that
was "unusual".

the famous "federation drought" & such, well - i don't know. at that point
people hadn't been keeping records for all that long, so frankly it makes me
wonder if our rainfall has not _always_ been compared to england or ireland,
and to do so would clearly make almost any year a "drought" :-) i think it's
only recently there have been records kept for consistently long periods
that you can get a real overview, but that's jmo. i just think that in
term's of the earth's life & overall patterns, 100 years is nothing, really.

One change I've noticed is that back in the Old Days, highs and lows would
head up out of the Bight and drift in an arc across NSW. Now, they aren't
centred on the Bight and the arc takes them up into southern Qld. That
pulls
more monsoon rain into Central Australia, but leaves the south-east of the
continent drier. Not sure if this is part of El Nino or separate.


el nino is still operating. the Powers That Be (weather nerds) expect the
effect to have passed by april or so, & for rain to return to "normal". i am
however not really sure there's ever been any agreement about what is
"normal"!! :-)

what is "normal"? the other day we were in town & a storm passed through -
it rained 35mm in about 1/2 hour. at our place, we got less than 2mm. the
difference is only about 12km as the crow flies. it regularly rains at our
place but not at the end of our road (or vice versa).
kylie


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