Do any of you happen to know what the rest of the
winter is supposed to be like? Any ametuer weather
men or women on the list? We've had a few days of
thawing out here in the north east which has been very
nice. But it looks like we are headed back down into
the teens and 20's for a week or more. I was just
wondering what the long term forecast looks like right
now. So far we have been averaging anywhere from 10
-20 degrees below average this year here in NY. Is
this trend supposed to continue on into spring.
Finally does anyone know of a site that gives
forecasts 2 weeks ahead of time?

Ben

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Do any of you happen to know what the rest of the
winter is supposed to be like? Any ametuer weather
men or women on the list? We've had a few days of
thawing out here in the north east which has been very
nice. But it looks like we are headed back down into
the teens and 20's for a week or more. I was just
wondering what the long term forecast looks like right
now. So far we have been averaging anywhere from 10
-20 degrees below average this year here in NY. Is
this trend supposed to continue on into spring.
Finally does anyone know of a site that gives
forecasts 2 weeks ahead of time?


Weatherpersons -- amateur or pro -- haven't the "foggiest" notion
what the weather is going to be like beyond the day after
tomorrow.

FWIW, the groundhog said 6 more weeks of winter.

The weather channel -- www.weather.com, I think -- purports to
give 10-day forecasts. Frankly, I'd have more luck with a
lottery ticket.

Jim Lewis - - Tallahassee, FL - Our life is
frittered away by detail . . . . Simplify! Simplify. -- Henry
David Thoreau - Walden

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The Farmers' Almanac and similar publications will give long range
forecasts. They are, as Jim notes, essentially useless except as conversational
fodder. Your best weather forecast comes from stepping outside yourself and
checking for precipitation, cloud cover and temperature. (You ever notice that the
weather forecasters never comment about how close or far they came from yesterday's
forecast? They don't want to be judged by their results/accuracy.)
Weather forecasts are about as scientific as economic forecasts. Until we
understand the plethora of variables involved much better than now and until some
future John Nash comes up with a suitably complex mathematical model to calculate
these variables, the old fashioned stick your head out the door will do best! ;-)
Alan Walker, Lake Charles, LA, USA
http://LCBSBonsai.org http://bonsai-bci.com
================================
Jim Lewis wrote:
Do any of you happen to know what the rest of the
winter is supposed to be like? Any amateur weather
men or women on the list? We've had a few days of
thawing out here in the north east which has been very
nice. But it looks like we are headed back down into
the teens and 20's for a week or more. I was just
wondering what the long term forecast looks like right
now. So far we have been averaging anywhere from 10
-20 degrees below average this year here in NY. Is
this trend supposed to continue on into spring.
Finally does anyone know of a site that gives
forecasts 2 weeks ahead of time?
====
Weather persons -- amateur or pro -- haven't the "foggiest" notion
what the weather is going to be like beyond the day after
tomorrow.

FWIW, the groundhog said 6 more weeks of winter.

The weather channel -- www.weather.com, I think -- purports to
give 10-day forecasts. Frankly, I'd have more luck with a
lottery ticket.
Jim Lewis - - Tallahassee, FL

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+++++ Questions? Help? e-mail +++++

G'day all...

Can't help with forcasting, but, here in the Arizona High Dezert, we had been
merrily enjoying 10F or so above normal, when suddenly...yesterdays over night
low was more that 20F lower than the previous day.

The low went down only to 33F...but it was sudden, and unexpected.

Getting good forcasts beyond tomorrow, and sometimes even for tomorrow, is like
finding the goose that lays the golden eggs!!!

Good luck!

Have a good day.

Pat
Dez of the Arizona High Dezert, at 4550', Oracle, AZ,
2000' above Tucson Sunset Zone 10 USDA Zone 8
aka: Pat Patterson 'riding off in all directions'

Alan wrote: . (You ever notice that the weather forecasters never
comment about how close or far they came from yesterday's forecast? They
don't want to be judged by their results/accuracy.)


Hey Alan one of our local tv stations has started their 5 degree accuracy
guarantee. Of course it's 5 degrees above & below what they forecast and
they don't say what they guarantee if they miss. Heck I think I could come
within 10 degrees as often as they do (right now they have about an 87%
accuracy after 3-4 months).

Bill Neff
Topeka, KS




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Looks like another cold night -22C or -25C here. Not nice out there.
Just checked the bonsai garage it's about 28F but I turned on _all_ the
lights.
No freeze and thaw this winter!

Alan
.................................................. ......................

He's the one who must deside,
Who's to live and who's to die,
And he never sees the writing on the walls.

B. Sainte-Marie