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Global warming? "Evidence" from my garden?
Is that really enough evidence for an indictment?
"Steve Harris" wrote in message ... 1. A have a lungwort that normally flowers in spring. It's just sent up a couple of stalks with buds on them 2. I have a Cyclamen Coum in flower (no leaves) Steve Harris - Cheltenham - Real address steve AT netservs DOT com A useful bit of gardening software at http://www.netservs.com/garden/ |
"Cereus-validus......." wrote in message m... Is that really enough evidence for an indictment? "Steve Harris" wrote in message ... 1. A have a lungwort that normally flowers in spring. It's just sent up a couple of stalks with buds on them 2. I have a Cyclamen Coum in flower (no leaves) Steve Harris - Cheltenham - Real address steve AT netservs DOT com A useful bit of gardening software at http://www.netservs.com/garden/ it is in Europe now.............. |
"michael adams" expounded:
There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Actually it's part of a 10-12,000 year cycle, but no one alive was around for the last one, so they can't imagine time on that scale. -- Ann, gardening in Zone 6a South of Boston, Massachusetts e-mail address is not checked ****************************** |
In article ,
michael adams wrote: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of that as a correlated random walk). Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
Nick Maclaren wrote:
In article , michael adams wrote: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of that as a correlated random walk). I'll say this for it, though: pdq does mean "pretty damn quick". -- Mike. |
In article ,
michael adams wrote: Any extrapolation of climate change based only on around 100 years worth of hard data of varying quality and reliabilty will of necessity require a fair amount of conjecture. That is true, but is seriously misleading, because there is a LOT more data of adequate quality - if you are up to handling it. If you're of the opinion that your conjecture is superior to that of the meteorologists whose opinion I quoted then good for you. No, my statement is not conjecture. I am a statistician, incidentally. To repeat what I said, there is damn-all evidence for a cyclic phenomenon in this case and, in situations like this one, almost all cases of apparent cycles are created by something like an ARIMA process. I could also add that the observations from previous centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory that there is a single predominant cycle. While I am pretty rusty in this aspect of statistics, I could still explain in more detail than I expect you want to know about this issue. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
"michael adams" wrote in message ... "Nick Maclaren" wrote in message ... In article , michael adams wrote: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of that as a correlated random walk). ... Any extrapolation of climate change based only on around 100 years worth of hard data of varying quality and reliabilty will of necessity require a fair amount of conjecture. If you're of the opinion that your conjecture is superior to that of the meteorologists whose opinion I quoted then good for you. All else is hand waving IMHO. There is one thing for sure - it's going to get a whole lot hotter around here in 6 billion years or so. |
The message
from "michael adams" contains these words: I can't say fairer than that, now can I? You didn't ask Dubya, didya? -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
In article ,
michael adams wrote: http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,1533737,00.html And you are regarded THAT as being an ACCURATE representation of what he said? Have you NO experience of how scientific statements get mangled in the press? Professor Saunders says that the current situation is a result of natural climate variability. Drought trends going back more than 100 years show this sort of natural cycle repeating itself time and again. He also rules out global warming as a contributing factor since it is expected to cause wetter winters. And there you can see it. Assuming that he knows his statistics, the first sentence is likely to be an accurate representation of what he said, but the term 'natural cycle' was almost certainly introduced as a loose description by the reporter. I'm not in the habit of posting unsupported rubbish on NewsGroups Then please don't do so again. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
In article ,
Ann wrote: "michael adams" expounded: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Actually it's part of a 10-12,000 year cycle, but no one alive was around for the last one, so they can't imagine time on that scale. Ice cores from Greenland indicate that the last "little" ice age came on in 7 years. That was the one that killed people in N. Europe, a couple of hundred years ago. The University of Alaska Fairbanks sends a team over to Greenland every year to drill the ice. If anyone wants to look this stuff up, hit the UAF website. (Probably the geophysical dept.) People moved over here to Alaska during the last "big" ice age. They've found tools and stuff that date to 10K YBP up near Old Crow in the Yukon Territory, right across the present Alaska/Canada border, up above the Yukon River. (Up the Porcupine River.) This little blue planet will revoke our permission to live on it any damned time it feels like it, with no advance notice. So in the mean time, grow a nice garden and try to be kind to people. (Unless they're idiots, twits or trolls.) Jan -- The way to a man's heart is between the fourth and the fifth rib. |
In article ,
Jaques d'Alltrades wrote: The message from "michael adams" contains these words: I can't say fairer than that, now can I? You didn't ask Dubya, didya? No, but he clearly learnt his science from the same source. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
michael adams wrote:
[...] Although lying about people seems a particular speciality of yours. As it is with most Crackpots of course. More especially once they start to feel the heat. [...] Michael, I can't help wondering why you use such an aggressive style in discussion. It's awfully off-putting. I seem to remember having been on the wrong end of it myself on one occasion (perhaps I started it: I really can't remember). Surely if you have the evidence and present it clearly, it will speak for itself: the issue is far too interesting to get emotional about. Nick gets distinctly blunt at times, but ratcheting up isn't the way to deal with it. -- Mike. |
It seems clear that the reason for this year's heat wave is the lack of
particulate matter in the atmosphere blocking out the solar radiation. What needs to be done is to encourage pollution worldwide to block out the bad radiation so we can cool down the planet just a little!!!! Duby's hare-brained solution to the problem almost seems to make sense. We need to burn a lot more coal!!! "Nick Maclaren" wrote in message ... In article , Jaques d'Alltrades wrote: The message from "michael adams" contains these words: I can't say fairer than that, now can I? You didn't ask Dubya, didya? No, but he clearly learnt his science from the same source. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
The message
from "michael adams" contains these words: So if the drought trends aren't decribing 'cycles' precisely what are they describing ? Trends, perhaps? -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
The message
from "michael adams" contains these words: "Nick Maclaren" wrote in message ... In article , Jaques d'Alltrades wrote: The message from "michael adams" contains these words: I can't say fairer than that, now can I? You didn't ask Dubya, didya? No, but he clearly learnt his science from the same source. Attempting to discredit scientists is more your own, and Bush's (advisors) speciality than mine, I'd have thought. Although lying about people seems a particular speciality of yours. As it is with most Crackpots of course. More especially once they start to feel the heat. The only evidence in support of your increasingly hysterical replies rests in your own posts - nowhere else. -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
The message
from "michael adams" contains these words: "Mike Lyle" wrote in message ... Michael, I can't help wondering why you use such an aggressive style in discussion. It's awfully off-putting. .... Then don't read my posts. It really is as simple as that, isn't it? If you want a forum which is run solely to suit your own personal tastes Mr Lyle, then I can only suggest you start up your own moderated chat board. It isn't my function in life to provide you personally with either entertainment or information. You seem to be succeeding admirably in the former, though failing rather dismally regarding the latter. Perhaps it's a good thing that it isn't your function in life. More especially when you're not paying me anything to do so. And I find it rather presumptuous on your part to assume otherwise. I don't remember anyone assuming that you were being paid for your outpourings. .... I seem to remember having been on the wrong end of it myself on one occasion (perhaps I started it: I really can't remember). Surely if you have the evidence and present it clearly, it will speak for itself: the issue is far too interesting to get emotional about. Nick gets distinctly blunt at times, but ratcheting up isn't the way to deal with it. -- Mike. .... If I ever require advice on how to conduct myself on NewsGroups Mr Lyle, or in life generaly for that matter, you can rest assured that the first person who I'll turn to for advice, will be somebody who clearly believes themselves especially qualified to offer advice on such subjects, such as yourself. Ah, good. I must say that I approve of your rating Mike as knowing how to conduct himself in newsgroups, for I totally agree there. Book of Common Prayer Hear them, read, mark, learn, and inwardly digest them. /Prayer -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
On Sun, 21 Aug 2005 12:48:59 GMT, "Cereus-validus......."
wrote: It seems clear that the reason for this year's heat wave is the lack of particulate matter in the atmosphere blocking out the solar radiation. What needs to be done is to encourage pollution worldwide to block out the bad radiation so we can cool down the planet just a little!!!! Duby's hare-brained solution to the problem almost seems to make sense. We need to burn a lot more coal!!! snip: Or how about another volcano eruption? Thunder |
How about burning towns & villages in the name of democracy?
How about more forest fires to open up land to raise more cattle? Lowering air pollution standards would definitely do the job!!! "Rolling Thunder" wrote in message ... On Sun, 21 Aug 2005 12:48:59 GMT, "Cereus-validus......." wrote: It seems clear that the reason for this year's heat wave is the lack of particulate matter in the atmosphere blocking out the solar radiation. What needs to be done is to encourage pollution worldwide to block out the bad radiation so we can cool down the planet just a little!!!! Duby's hare-brained solution to the problem almost seems to make sense. We need to burn a lot more coal!!! snip: Or how about another volcano eruption? Thunder |
"Nick Maclaren" wrote in message ... In article , michael adams wrote: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of that as a correlated random walk). Regards, Nick Maclaren. Global warming is caused by the dwindling number of pirates. See http://www.venganza.org/ Bob |
Bob Smith wrote:
[...] Global warming is caused by the dwindling number of pirates. See http://www.venganza.org/ The calm Voice of Sanity at last! It should be noted, however, that a recent spike in pirate numbers local to Indonesian waters has often been adduced in an attempt to refute the theory. It's very important to get across to the lay public, which might easily be confused by such an apparent counter-example, that in fact these data merely _confirm_ the theory. Nick can explain the stats better than I, and I wish dear old Franz were still with us to describe the physics, but I think it's essentially correct to say it's a matter of what the layman would call "averaging". A localised concentration does nothing to detract from the principle applied globally; and, very interestingly, according to catastrophe theory, may even appear to produce a transitory effect _contrary_ to what a global calculation would predict. -- Mike. |
In article , "Mike Lyle" writes: | | Nick can explain the stats better than I, and I wish dear old Franz | were still with us to describe the physics, but I think it's | essentially correct to say it's a matter of what the layman would | call "averaging". A localised concentration does nothing to detract | from the principle applied globally; and, very interestingly, | according to catastrophe theory, may even appear to produce a | transitory effect _contrary_ to what a global calculation would | predict. As demonstrated by the technology of paraffin refrigerators. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
Nick Maclaren wrote:
In article , "Mike Lyle" writes: Nick can explain the stats better than I, and I wish dear old Franz were still with us to describe the physics, but I think it's essentially correct to say it's a matter of what the layman would call "averaging". A localised concentration does nothing to detract from the principle applied globally; and, very interestingly, according to catastrophe theory, may even appear to produce a transitory effect _contrary_ to what a global calculation would predict. As demonstrated by the technology of paraffin refrigerators. A perfect example in more than one sense: I remember some people back in Sa'udi had one which had to be turned upside-down every day to make it work. -- Mike. |
Nick Maclaren wrote:
In article , "Mike Lyle" writes: Nick can explain the stats better than I, and I wish dear old Franz were still with us to describe the physics, but I think it's essentially correct to say it's a matter of what the layman would call "averaging". A localised concentration does nothing to detract from the principle applied globally; and, very interestingly, according to catastrophe theory, may even appear to produce a transitory effect _contrary_ to what a global calculation would predict. As demonstrated by the technology of paraffin refrigerators. Even though I Googled for it I can't find how a paraffin refrigerator works. Anyone? -- Travis in Shoreline Washington |
Travis wrote:
Nick Maclaren wrote: In article , "Mike Lyle" writes: Nick can explain the stats better than I, and I wish dear old Franz were still with us to describe the physics, but I think it's essentially correct to say it's a matter of what the layman would call "averaging". A localised concentration does nothing to detract from the principle applied globally; and, very interestingly, according to catastrophe theory, may even appear to produce a transitory effect _contrary_ to what a global calculation would predict. As demonstrated by the technology of paraffin refrigerators. Even though I Googled for it I can't find how a paraffin refrigerator works. Anyone? Same as a gas one. -- Mike. |
In article ,
martin wrote: On Mon, 22 Aug 2005 21:57:32 +0100, "Mike Lyle" wrote: Travis wrote: Even though I Googled for it I can't find how a paraffin refrigerator works. Anyone? Same as a gas one. and for those who don't know ... http://www.nh3tech.org/absorption.html Ye gods! That explains why I was about to give the answer to how one works: rather badly. I had never looked up the physics before, but that isn't the sort of technology that is ideal for the conditions we used them in. Not field repairable? When transport from the nearest factory takes several weeks? Not good news. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
Mike Lyle wrote:
Travis wrote: Nick Maclaren wrote: In article , "Mike Lyle" writes: Nick can explain the stats better than I, and I wish dear old Franz were still with us to describe the physics, but I think it's essentially correct to say it's a matter of what the layman would call "averaging". A localised concentration does nothing to detract from the principle applied globally; and, very interestingly, according to catastrophe theory, may even appear to produce a transitory effect _contrary_ to what a global calculation would predict. As demonstrated by the technology of paraffin refrigerators. Even though I Googled for it I can't find how a paraffin refrigerator works. Anyone? Same as a gas one. Since paraffin is a soild (isn't it) and gas is a gas I don't get it. -- Travis in Shoreline Washington |
In article DGxOe.10628$g47.7290@trnddc07,
Travis wrote: Since paraffin is a soild (isn't it) and gas is a gas I don't get it. Not at any civilised temperature, it isn't. It is a liquid. You are thinking of paraffin wax. Also don't confuse (liquid) paraffin with liquid paraffin :-) Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
The message c_qOe.9353$g47.2489@trnddc07
from "Travis" contains these words: Even though I Googled for it I can't find how a paraffin refrigerator works. Anyone? Thermosyphon, like an Electrolux. They do gas ones, electric ones and someone makes a paraffin one, probably Electrolux. There are also gas/electric ones on the market, mainly for caravanners. -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
The message DGxOe.10628$g47.7290@trnddc07
from "Travis" contains these words: Even though I Googled for it I can't find how a paraffin refrigerator works. Anyone? Same as a gas one. Since paraffin is a soild (isn't it) and gas is a gas I don't get it. 'Paraffin' is a group of hydrocabons which includes solids through to gases. The paraffin referred to is somewhere in the middle of the group and is called kerosene in Transpondia. -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
Nick Maclaren wrote:
In article DGxOe.10628$g47.7290@trnddc07, Travis wrote: Since paraffin is a soild (isn't it) and gas is a gas I don't get it. Not at any civilised temperature, it isn't. It is a liquid. You are thinking of paraffin wax. Also don't confuse (liquid) paraffin with liquid paraffin :-) So you mean what we call kerosene? -- Travis in Shoreline (just North of Seattle) Washington USDA Zone 8 Sunset Zone 5 |
Jaques d'Alltrades wrote:
The message DGxOe.10628$g47.7290@trnddc07 from "Travis" contains these words: Even though I Googled for it I can't find how a paraffin refrigerator works. Anyone? Same as a gas one. Since paraffin is a soild (isn't it) and gas is a gas I don't get it. 'Paraffin' is a group of hydrocabons which includes solids through to gases. The paraffin referred to is somewhere in the middle of the group and is called kerosene in Transpondia. Transpondia? When I Google that word I find something about bringing a visitor or fiance to the UK. This is getting really weird. -- Travis in Shoreline (just North of Seattle) Washington USDA Zone 8 Sunset Zone 5 |
In article %VAOe.12345$g47.9087@trnddc07, "Travis" writes: | Jaques d'Alltrades wrote: | | 'Paraffin' is a group of hydrocabons which includes solids through | to gases. The paraffin referred to is somewhere in the middle of | the group and is called kerosene in Transpondia. Yup. | Transpondia? When I Google that word I find something about bringing a | visitor or fiance to the UK. It has been used to refer to our ex-colonies (especially the rebellious ones) in north America for some time - on UK newsgroups. | This is getting really weird. Nah. Try uk.rec.sheds. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
Nick Maclaren wrote:
In article DGxOe.10628$g47.7290@trnddc07, Travis wrote: Since paraffin is a soild (isn't it) and gas is a gas I don't get it. Not at any civilised temperature, it isn't. It is a liquid. You are thinking of paraffin wax. Also don't confuse (liquid) paraffin with liquid paraffin :-) No, it's a divided-by-a-common-language thing. Brit laymen use the word "paraffin" for _kerosene_. Not as bad (from our pov) as the French, who call it "pétrole"! -- Mike. |
In article , "Mike Lyle" writes: | | Since paraffin is a soild (isn't it) and gas is a gas I don't get | it. | | Not at any civilised temperature, it isn't. It is a liquid. You | are thinking of paraffin wax. Also don't confuse (liquid) paraffin | with liquid paraffin :-) | | No, it's a divided-by-a-common-language thing. Brit laymen use the | word "paraffin" for _kerosene_. Not as bad (from our pov) as the | French, who call it "pétrole"! Actually, I use the terms 'paraffin' and 'kerosene' as synonyms. Both are abbreviations (for p. oil and k. oil) and the use of paraffin in that sense predates the use of kerosene (by only a few years, true). Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
Nick Maclaren wrote:
In article %VAOe.12345$g47.9087@trnddc07, "Travis" writes: [...] Transpondia? When I Google that word I find something about bringing a visitor or fiance to the UK. It has been used to refer to our ex-colonies (especially the rebellious ones) in north America for some time - on UK newsgroups. Over on alt.usage.english, it's spawned a whole range of derivatives, including (hyphens are included or not according to house style): Right-pond Left-pond Else-pond Other-pond Trans-pond all of which lead to the expected forms with -ial, -ian, and -iality. There are also _pondial_ and _pondiality_. I believe I was myself responsible for the divergent adjectival form referring to Oceania, _Antipondean_. Since we often refer to South Africa, I am about to introduce _up-_ and _down-pond_ -- also, perhaps, confections of my own. -- Mike. |
In message %VAOe.12345$g47.9087@trnddc07, Travis
writes Jaques d'Alltrades wrote: The message DGxOe.10628$g47.7290@trnddc07 from "Travis" contains these words: Even though I Googled for it I can't find how a paraffin refrigerator works. Anyone? Same as a gas one. Since paraffin is a soild (isn't it) and gas is a gas I don't get it. 'Paraffin' is a group of hydrocabons which includes solids through to gases. The paraffin referred to is somewhere in the middle of the group and is called kerosene in Transpondia. Transpondia? When I Google that word I find something about bringing a visitor or fiance to the UK. This is getting really weird. British understatement refers to the Atlantic Ocean (occasionally) as The Pond, and hence to North America (more often) as Transpondia or Leftpondia. -- Stewart Robert Hinsley |
The message
from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words: In article %VAOe.12345$g47.9087@trnddc07, "Travis" writes: | Transpondia? When I Google that word I find something about bringing a | visitor or fiance to the UK. It has been used to refer to our ex-colonies (especially the rebellious ones) in north America for some time - on UK newsgroups. | This is getting really weird. Nah. Try uk.rec.sheds. You can be a cruel abstrad when you want, 'Mr. Maclaren'... -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
The message
from "Mike Lyle" contains these words: No, it's a divided-by-a-common-language thing. Brit laymen use the word "paraffin" for _kerosene_. Not as bad (from our pov) as the French, who call it "pétrole"! Ah, but they call petrol 'essence', which might be disastrous in a big cake in a hot oven innit. -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
The message
from "Mike Lyle" contains these words: Over on alt.usage.english, it's spawned a whole range of derivatives, including (hyphens are included or not according to house style): Right-pond Left-pond Else-pond Other-pond Trans-pond all of which lead to the expected forms with -ial, -ian, and -iality. There are also _pondial_ and _pondiality_. I believe I was myself responsible for the divergent adjectival form referring to Oceania, _Antipondean_. Since we often refer to South Africa, I am about to introduce _up-_ and _down-pond_ -- also, perhaps, confections of my own. Something to ponder upon, I suppose, and for you to respond?. -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
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