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Old 21-08-2008, 04:15 PM posted to rec.gardens.orchids
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Default Fay

Latest on FAY from the NHC at 11 EST:

THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT. FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING
FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. LATEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 994 MB AND
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS AND DEEP CONVECTION
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CLEARLY SHOWS A SPINNING
RING OF CONVECTION WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF UP TO 67 KNOTS AT
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET. HOWEVER…FAY DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER
CORE. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING…THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD IMPEDE IT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER…FAY SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT A TRACK FATHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED COULD BRING
THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THIS CASE…FAY
SHOULD NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST…AND DO NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS
OVER WATER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

STEERING CURRENTS HAVE REMAINED VERY LIGHT…CONSEQUENTLY FAY HAS
BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF FAY. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR WEST…A MOTION WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING BUT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
YET. NEVERTHELESS…THE DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN GIVES ME NO
OPTION BUT TO FORECAST A TURN TO THE LEFT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN SOON.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:05 am



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Old 21-08-2008, 08:13 PM posted to rec.gardens.orchids
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What you said. Exactly. It's a big, lumbering storm. The wind has not been
an issue, but the extensive rain over a long period of time has caused many
problems in low lying areas. Fortunately, we are not in one of those areas.

Diana

"Robert Lorenzini" wrote in message
...
Latest on FAY from the NHC at 11 EST:

THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT. FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING
FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. LATEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 994 MB AND
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS AND DEEP CONVECTION
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CLEARLY SHOWS A SPINNING
RING OF CONVECTION WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF UP TO 67 KNOTS AT
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET. HOWEVER.FAY DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER
CORE. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING.THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD IMPEDE IT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER.FAY SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT A TRACK FATHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED COULD BRING
THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THIS CASE.FAY
SHOULD NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST.AND DO NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS
OVER WATER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

STEERING CURRENTS HAVE REMAINED VERY LIGHT.CONSEQUENTLY FAY HAS
BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF FAY. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR WEST.A MOTION WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING BUT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
YET. NEVERTHELESS.THE DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN GIVES ME NO
OPTION BUT TO FORECAST A TURN TO THE LEFT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN SOON.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK.FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:05 am




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Old 22-08-2008, 03:18 PM posted to rec.gardens.orchids
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On Thu, 21 Aug 2008 15:13:29 -0400, Diana Kulaga wrote:
What you said. Exactly. It's a big, lumbering storm. The wind has not been
an issue, but the extensive rain over a long period of time has caused many
problems in low lying areas. Fortunately, we are not in one of those areas.

Diana


From my group today:

Fay - Will linger over Florida for a bit more, then move west, and then north. I don’t see it going into the GOM.

The one I’m watching is 94L. Not much shear, warm water, heading into moisture.
New 95L right behind it, but don’t see it doing much.

Check out this model. 94L could be a monster.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc...hour=Animation

click “FWD” on right to get the loop.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:08 am
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Old 22-08-2008, 03:46 PM posted to rec.gardens.orchids
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On Thu, 21 Aug 2008 15:13:29 -0400 in Diana Kulaga wrote:
What you said. Exactly. It's a big, lumbering storm. The wind has not been
an issue, but the extensive rain over a long period of time has caused many
problems in low lying areas. Fortunately, we are not in one of those areas.


There are parts of Florida that aren't low lying areas?
(Aside from overpasses and those bits of Orlando that a certain nut
job trucked a 10' layer of fill on top of...)
--
Chris Dukes
"Let all the babies be born. Then let us drown those we do not like."
-- G. K. Chesterton.
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Old 22-08-2008, 05:33 PM posted to rec.gardens.orchids
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On Aug 22, 10:18*am, Robert Lorenzini

Check out this model. 94L could be a monster.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc...00&field=Sea+L....

click FWD on right to get the loop.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:08 am


is that the one that ends up being dark blue and right off the coast
of FL?

-wide eyed-

--j_a


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Old 22-08-2008, 08:45 PM posted to rec.gardens.orchids
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It's all relative, Chris. Of course we're all in *low lying areas*. But
construction, good or poor drainage, and places for the water to go (or lack
thereof) all play into the equation.

Our house backs up to a 100' wide canal. The water level in the canal is
usually VERY low. It is part of a system of drainage canals and culverts
that culminate in a retention pond of about four acres (guestimating here).
The houses on this side of the street are built up faily high.

Believe me, I'm not trying to sound cocky. It's FL, and anything could
happen. We're finding out more about localized flooding in places where we
wouldn't have expected it. But by and large we feel very safe here.

Knock on glass, since we don't have a scrap of wood.

Diana

wrote in message
...
On Thu, 21 Aug 2008 15:13:29 -0400 in
Diana Kulaga
wrote:
What you said. Exactly. It's a big, lumbering storm. The wind has not
been
an issue, but the extensive rain over a long period of time has caused
many
problems in low lying areas. Fortunately, we are not in one of those
areas.


There are parts of Florida that aren't low lying areas?
(Aside from overpasses and those bits of Orlando that a certain nut
job trucked a 10' layer of fill on top of...)
--
Chris Dukes
"Let all the babies be born. Then let us drown those we do not like."
-- G. K. Chesterton.



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Old 26-08-2008, 03:08 PM posted to rec.gardens.orchids
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On Aug 22, 10:46*am, wrote:
On Thu, 21 Aug 2008 15:13:29 -0400 in Diana Kulaga *wrote:

What you said. Exactly. It's a big, lumbering storm. The wind has not been
an issue, but the extensive rain over a long period of time has caused many
problems in low lying areas. Fortunately, we are not in one of those areas.


There are parts of Florida that aren't low lying areas?



Yes. The highest point FL is about 300 ft. above sea level, a
veritable mountain. (annoying emoticon here)


J. Del Col
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Old 26-08-2008, 08:30 PM posted to rec.gardens.orchids
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"jadel" wrote in message
...
On Aug 22, 10:46 am, wrote:
On Thu, 21 Aug 2008 15:13:29 -0400 in
Diana Kulaga
wrote:

What you said. Exactly. It's a big, lumbering storm. The wind has not
been
an issue, but the extensive rain over a long period of time has caused
many
problems in low lying areas. Fortunately, we are not in one of those
areas.


There are parts of Florida that aren't low lying areas?



Yes. The highest point FL is about 300 ft. above sea level, a
veritable mountain. (annoying emoticon here)


J. Del Col

And that's a land fill!!

Diana


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Old 26-08-2008, 08:42 PM posted to rec.gardens.orchids
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On Tue, 26 Aug 2008 15:30:36 -0400 in Diana Kulaga wrote:

"jadel" wrote in message
...


Yes. The highest point FL is about 300 ft. above sea level, a
veritable mountain. (annoying emoticon here)


J. Del Col

And that's a land fill!!


I guess I shouldn't kvetch too much... I'm only about 250' above
sea level, I even get the joy being within walking distance of
a river that's downstream of a dam for a rather large resevoir
lake and downstream of a damn for flood control.
However, I don't worry too much. The wife's ex-husband's house will have
40' of water above its roof before water starts coming into our basement.


--
Chris Dukes
"Let all the babies be born. Then let us drown those we do not like."
-- G. K. Chesterton.
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Old 26-08-2008, 08:51 PM posted to rec.gardens.orchids
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Wow, you have a basement? Didn't think we had those down here at all, LOL!

Diana

wrote in message
...
On Tue, 26 Aug 2008 15:30:36 -0400 in
Diana Kulaga
wrote:

"jadel" wrote in message
...


Yes. The highest point FL is about 300 ft. above sea level, a
veritable mountain. (annoying emoticon here)


J. Del Col

And that's a land fill!!


I guess I shouldn't kvetch too much... I'm only about 250' above
sea level, I even get the joy being within walking distance of
a river that's downstream of a dam for a rather large resevoir
lake and downstream of a damn for flood control.
However, I don't worry too much. The wife's ex-husband's house will have
40' of water above its roof before water starts coming into our basement.


--
Chris Dukes
"Let all the babies be born. Then let us drown those we do not like."
-- G. K. Chesterton.





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Old 26-08-2008, 11:10 PM posted to rec.gardens.orchids
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Default Fay

Isn't that Bok Gardens (or whatever the Bok Tower is in)?

FWIW, the house I owned in SC was a whopping 8 feet above sea level, but
fortunately was elevated another 4 feet, so when Hugo went through, the
water only reached halfway up the first floor.

Even more fortunately )for me) was the fact that I sold it and moved away a
few years prior!

--

Ray Barkalow - First Rays Orchids - www.firstrays.com
Plants, Supplies. Books, Artwork, and lots of Free Info!


"Diana Kulaga" wrote in message
. ..

"jadel" wrote in message
...
On Aug 22, 10:46 am, wrote:
On Thu, 21 Aug 2008 15:13:29 -0400 in
Diana Kulaga
wrote:

What you said. Exactly. It's a big, lumbering storm. The wind has not
been
an issue, but the extensive rain over a long period of time has caused
many
problems in low lying areas. Fortunately, we are not in one of those
areas.


There are parts of Florida that aren't low lying areas?



Yes. The highest point FL is about 300 ft. above sea level, a
veritable mountain. (annoying emoticon here)


J. Del Col

And that's a land fill!!

Diana





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