Hi guys-

I am very happily converting a large share of my orchid collection to
semi-hydroponics. The plants are happy. I am happy. So, as I lust for
the warmth of summer, I started worrying. I have one hell of a lot of
standing water in my pots now and started worrying about mosquitoes. The
concern is a bit more than worrying about a pest as the West Nile Virus is
increasingly prevalent here in Virginia. Will regular watering and flushing
being adequate to remove mosquito larva? Will a couple of drops of bleach
damage orchids? What thoughts do you growers have about controlling
mosquitoes in your greenhouse/collection?

Will summer come soon? I'm desparate!

Thanks all.

Frank

--

Frank,

I think you are overly concerned. Unsurprisingly, I have more S/H
experience than anyone, and have never seen a mosquito in the reservoir of a
semi-hydro pot, even on those occasions when everything was grown outdoors,
unprotected for a few months in the middle of summer, while replacing the GH
glazing or last summer, when doing a complete scouring and reorganization of
the GH.

I believe that the flushing is completely adequate, and I believe the bugs
would need to get to the reservoir from the top (unlikely), rather than
through the drainage holes.

If you do feel better about using a disinfectant (I good way to keep down
algae, too), one ounce of household bleach per gallon of water is OK, with
no detrimental effects on the plant. I tend to use commercial products in
the GH these days, but used bleach once a month-or-two for years.

--

Ray Barkalow - First Rays Orchids - www.firstrays.com
Plants, Supplies, Books, Artwork, and Lots of Free Info!

.. . . . . . . . . . .
"Frank H. Kirchner" wrote in message
news:wIZTb.2185$Yj.680@lakeread02...
Hi guys-

I am very happily converting a large share of my orchid collection to
semi-hydroponics. The plants are happy. I am happy. So, as I lust for
the warmth of summer, I started worrying. I have one hell of a lot of
standing water in my pots now and started worrying about mosquitoes. The
concern is a bit more than worrying about a pest as the West Nile Virus is
increasingly prevalent here in Virginia. Will regular watering and
flushing
being adequate to remove mosquito larva? Will a couple of drops of bleach
damage orchids? What thoughts do you growers have about controlling
mosquitoes in your greenhouse/collection?

Will summer come soon? I'm desparate!

Thanks all.

Frank

--

Frank,

You have to take what you hear in the media about West Nile Virus, SARS,
avian flu, &c. with more than a few grains of salt. In my view, the media
covering these, and other, diseases are guilty of creating substantial
terror by not putting the risks due to these diseases into context. And
they're worse than the terrorists from the muslim world because the fear the
media created of these diseases is wholly unwarranted.

In the case of West Nile virus, it does not move directly from human to
human, regardless of how close or intimate the contact. It only moves via
direct exchange of blood. Of all the mosquito species there are, and I
can't tell you off hand how many species there are, there are in fact only a
handful that bite people. The only species directly implicated in the
transmission of West Nile virus has very restricted habitat requirements.
It requires very small, sheltered bodies of water, such as would occur in
blocked eaves troughs, bird baths surrounded by a tall hedge, discarded
tires, &c. And Ray is right: they'd have to have direct access to the
surface of the water. Even a simple screen is enough to make, say, the
water in a rain barrel, inaccessable. One thing to bear in mind, generally,
about mosquitoes, is that they are very weak swimmers and fliers; the
slightest breeze or current is enough to make a given location unsuitable as
their habitat. While it can be found here in southern Ontario, it does not
occur in any of the many wetlands surrounding Orillia (where I live).
Furthermore, it generally travels no more than a few hundred metres from
where it emerged from the water as an adult. Therefore, if you and your
immediate neighbors are diligent in cleaning out your eaves, replacing bird
bath water every few days, etc., you will have collectively ensured that
there is no viable habitat for it.

But your risk is small, even if you do nothing. You have to have a
significant number of people (or birds) infected by the virus in order for
there to be an estimable risk of becoming infected, and even if you do get
infected, the probability is that you won't even show symptoms. The
probability of disease due to this virus is the lowest of any for which I
have seen data, and the vast majority of those infected who do display some
symptoms, suffer a disease much milder than the common cold. While there is
a measurable risk of serious disease (serious enough to produce long term
debilitating consequences), it is extremely low: too low, in my opinion, to
worry about. It is much more sensible to fear the common influenza virus
than it is to fear any of the diseases we have heard so much about in the
news recently; and no-one, apart from the elderly, extremely ill, and
parents of very small children (worried about their children rather than
themselves), has cause to fear the flu.

The best way to address your fears about West Nile virus, is, rather than
taking all kinds of precautions which will cost money, to obtain reliable
information. Do a search on the web to find out, first, which mosquito
species are vectors for it, second, the probability of displaying symptoms
once infected, and then the probability of requiring hospitalization once
symptoms are apparent. And to put the risks into perspective, do an
additional search to assess the risks associated with influenza, SARS,
ebola. Ebola is an especially interesting case because, while very deadly,
it is also so rare and difficult to transmit from one person to another,
there have been fewer cases of it over the past few decades than even SARS
in the last year alone.

Note, while I say there is no need to fear, I am not saying it is wise not
to consider normal prudence. The fact is that if there is sufficient data
for us to estimate the probability of a given event (e.g. that a person will
become sick due to West Nile virus), then that event is not only possible,
but certain. But the certainty that someone will get sick with West Nile,
or die from SARS, does not mean that it is likely that you will suffer
either fate. All it means is that one would be wise to cooperate with
initiatives from public health authorities in their efforts to prevent a
public health crisis. If the authorities learn of a new disease, it is
their responsibility to initiate prudent measures, assuming the worst case
scenario, until such a time as there is good evidence to allow a good
evaluation of the releant risks (and at the same time, they need to be
subject to public scrutiny to ensure they are effective in balancing the
relevant costs and risks). In my estimationg, both they and the nedia have
stumbled badly WRT all these diseases, as well as the recent cases of BSE.

Anyway, this isn't the forum for a detailed treatment of risk analysis and
public health. I just wrote what I did to enable you to effectively deal
with your fears as they impinge on how you deal with your orchids.

Cheers,

Ted


"Frank H. Kirchner" wrote in message
news:wIZTb.2185$Yj.680@lakeread02...
Hi guys-

I am very happily converting a large share of my orchid collection to
semi-hydroponics. The plants are happy. I am happy. So, as I lust for
the warmth of summer, I started worrying. I have one hell of a lot of
standing water in my pots now and started worrying about mosquitoes. The
concern is a bit more than worrying about a pest as the West Nile Virus is
increasingly prevalent here in Virginia. Will regular watering and
flushing
being adequate to remove mosquito larva? Will a couple of drops of bleach
damage orchids? What thoughts do you growers have about controlling
mosquitoes in your greenhouse/collection?

Will summer come soon? I'm desparate!

Thanks all.

Frank

--

Frank,

You have to take what you hear in the media about West Nile Virus, SARS,
avian flu, &c. with more than a few grains of salt. In my view, the media
covering these, and other, diseases are guilty of creating substantial
terror by not putting the risks due to these diseases into context. And
they're worse than the terrorists from the muslim world because the fear the
media created of these diseases is wholly unwarranted.

In the case of West Nile virus, it does not move directly from human to
human, regardless of how close or intimate the contact. It only moves via
direct exchange of blood. Of all the mosquito species there are, and I
can't tell you off hand how many species there are, there are in fact only a
handful that bite people. The only species directly implicated in the
transmission of West Nile virus has very restricted habitat requirements.
It requires very small, sheltered bodies of water, such as would occur in
blocked eaves troughs, bird baths surrounded by a tall hedge, discarded
tires, &c. And Ray is right: they'd have to have direct access to the
surface of the water. Even a simple screen is enough to make, say, the
water in a rain barrel, inaccessable. One thing to bear in mind, generally,
about mosquitoes, is that they are very weak swimmers and fliers; the
slightest breeze or current is enough to make a given location unsuitable as
their habitat. While it can be found here in southern Ontario, it does not
occur in any of the many wetlands surrounding Orillia (where I live).
Furthermore, it generally travels no more than a few hundred metres from
where it emerged from the water as an adult. Therefore, if you and your
immediate neighbors are diligent in cleaning out your eaves, replacing bird
bath water every few days, etc., you will have collectively ensured that
there is no viable habitat for it.

But your risk is small, even if you do nothing. You have to have a
significant number of people (or birds) infected by the virus in order for
there to be an estimable risk of becoming infected, and even if you do get
infected, the probability is that you won't even show symptoms. The
probability of disease due to this virus is the lowest of any for which I
have seen data, and the vast majority of those infected who do display some
symptoms, suffer a disease much milder than the common cold. While there is
a measurable risk of serious disease (serious enough to produce long term
debilitating consequences), it is extremely low: too low, in my opinion, to
worry about. It is much more sensible to fear the common influenza virus
than it is to fear any of the diseases we have heard so much about in the
news recently; and no-one, apart from the elderly, extremely ill, and
parents of very small children (worried about their children rather than
themselves), has cause to fear the flu.

The best way to address your fears about West Nile virus, is, rather than
taking all kinds of precautions which will cost money, to obtain reliable
information. Do a search on the web to find out, first, which mosquito
species are vectors for it, second, the probability of displaying symptoms
once infected, and then the probability of requiring hospitalization once
symptoms are apparent. And to put the risks into perspective, do an
additional search to assess the risks associated with influenza, SARS,
ebola. Ebola is an especially interesting case because, while very deadly,
it is also so rare and difficult to transmit from one person to another,
there have been fewer cases of it over the past few decades than even SARS
in the last year alone.

Note, while I say there is no need to fear, I am not saying it is wise not
to consider normal prudence. The fact is that if there is sufficient data
for us to estimate the probability of a given event (e.g. that a person will
become sick due to West Nile virus), then that event is not only possible,
but certain. But the certainty that someone will get sick with West Nile,
or die from SARS, does not mean that it is likely that you will suffer
either fate. All it means is that one would be wise to cooperate with
initiatives from public health authorities in their efforts to prevent a
public health crisis. If the authorities learn of a new disease, it is
their responsibility to initiate prudent measures, assuming the worst case
scenario, until such a time as there is good evidence to allow a good
evaluation of the releant risks (and at the same time, they need to be
subject to public scrutiny to ensure they are effective in balancing the
relevant costs and risks). In my estimationg, both they and the nedia have
stumbled badly WRT all these diseases, as well as the recent cases of BSE.

Anyway, this isn't the forum for a detailed treatment of risk analysis and
public health. I just wrote what I did to enable you to effectively deal
with your fears as they impinge on how you deal with your orchids.

Cheers,

Ted


"Frank H. Kirchner" wrote in message
news:wIZTb.2185$Yj.680@lakeread02...
Hi guys-

I am very happily converting a large share of my orchid collection to
semi-hydroponics. The plants are happy. I am happy. So, as I lust for
the warmth of summer, I started worrying. I have one hell of a lot of
standing water in my pots now and started worrying about mosquitoes. The
concern is a bit more than worrying about a pest as the West Nile Virus is
increasingly prevalent here in Virginia. Will regular watering and
flushing
being adequate to remove mosquito larva? Will a couple of drops of bleach
damage orchids? What thoughts do you growers have about controlling
mosquitoes in your greenhouse/collection?

Will summer come soon? I'm desparate!

Thanks all.

Frank

--

On Wed, 4 Feb 2004 11:13:45 -0500, "Ted Byers"
wrote:

Frank,
Anyway, this isn't the forum for a detailed treatment of risk analysis and
public health. I just wrote what I did to enable you to effectively deal
with your fears as they impinge on how you deal with your orchids.

Cheers,

Ted


I have to both agree and disagree with you Ted.
I am from Colorado. We were hit the HARDEST of any place with
the West Nile this last year. It kills birds, horses, and
humans. It mimics the flu but is not an easy recovery. It will
be 6-8 months for someone that had a serious case. The saving
grace is mosquitoes are easy to avoid.... stay inside, wear long
sleeves, wear deet, change bird bath water, make sure toys and
pots standing around are not collecting water. It takes 3 days
for the water cycle.

Yes, I know several people who had West Nile. A couple that came
close to dying. One of those was because she went to Washington
state to visit and the Dr. would not believe she had West Nile.

They say that either this year or next our birds will start
showing a natural immunity to it and they will survive to eat the
mosquitoes. So the question is do we have to get thru another
bad year? Some of the worst was along the river where there are
backwater ponds that fill during wet cycles, spring thaw or heavy
rain. Because these areas are mostly pasture, they were not
sprayed as early in the season as they should have been. All
standing water ponds need the floats for mosquito control.
SuE
http://orchids.legolas.org/gallery/albums.php

On Wed, 4 Feb 2004 11:13:45 -0500, "Ted Byers"
wrote:

Frank,
Anyway, this isn't the forum for a detailed treatment of risk analysis and
public health. I just wrote what I did to enable you to effectively deal
with your fears as they impinge on how you deal with your orchids.

Cheers,

Ted


I have to both agree and disagree with you Ted.
I am from Colorado. We were hit the HARDEST of any place with
the West Nile this last year. It kills birds, horses, and
humans. It mimics the flu but is not an easy recovery. It will
be 6-8 months for someone that had a serious case. The saving
grace is mosquitoes are easy to avoid.... stay inside, wear long
sleeves, wear deet, change bird bath water, make sure toys and
pots standing around are not collecting water. It takes 3 days
for the water cycle.

Yes, I know several people who had West Nile. A couple that came
close to dying. One of those was because she went to Washington
state to visit and the Dr. would not believe she had West Nile.

They say that either this year or next our birds will start
showing a natural immunity to it and they will survive to eat the
mosquitoes. So the question is do we have to get thru another
bad year? Some of the worst was along the river where there are
backwater ponds that fill during wet cycles, spring thaw or heavy
rain. Because these areas are mostly pasture, they were not
sprayed as early in the season as they should have been. All
standing water ponds need the floats for mosquito control.
SuE
http://orchids.legolas.org/gallery/albums.php

Sue,

I don't disagree with you that the West Nile virus CAN be deadly. That is
something I did not, and will not, deny. However, according to your CDC (an
American institution, not Canadian), in 2002, there were only a little over
4000 cases of it, and fewer than 300 deaths. And the CDC estimated that the
risk of dying from West Nile is slightly less than that for the flu (less
than 1 in a thousand). In contrast, 10% to 20% of any given population of
human beings will get the flu in any given flu season. In the US that is,
what, something of the order of 40,000,000 people? And of these, there
would likely be something a little over 100,000 deaths in a typical year.
Alas, I don't have the stats for 2003, but I wouldn't expect them to be too
different. With the case of ebola, there have been only about 1400 cases
since it was first reported, almost all of whom died. Given the stats,
unless you're one of the unlucky few who get a serious case of one of these
diseases, about the only time I'd start to worry is if a new virus appeared
that was as deadly as ebola and as contagious as the flu.

I am not surprised that the one person you write about came close to dying
because the doctor didn't believe she had it. It is to be expected that,
with so few cases nationally, that few doctors get first hand experience
with it and consequently misdiagnose it. And as alays, misdiagnosis can be
deadly.

As an ecologist, with some experience and expertise in risk assessment, I do
not believe wide spread spraying for mosquitos in rural areas is warranted,
although some farmers with significant amounts of livestock may well
disagree.

Cheers,

Ted


"Susan Erickson" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 4 Feb 2004 11:13:45 -0500, "Ted Byers"
wrote:

Frank,
Anyway, this isn't the forum for a detailed treatment of risk analysis
and
public health. I just wrote what I did to enable you to effectively deal
with your fears as they impinge on how you deal with your orchids.

Cheers,

Ted


I have to both agree and disagree with you Ted.
I am from Colorado. We were hit the HARDEST of any place with
the West Nile this last year. It kills birds, horses, and
humans. It mimics the flu but is not an easy recovery. It will
be 6-8 months for someone that had a serious case. The saving
grace is mosquitoes are easy to avoid.... stay inside, wear long
sleeves, wear deet, change bird bath water, make sure toys and
pots standing around are not collecting water. It takes 3 days
for the water cycle.

Yes, I know several people who had West Nile. A couple that came
close to dying. One of those was because she went to Washington
state to visit and the Dr. would not believe she had West Nile.

They say that either this year or next our birds will start
showing a natural immunity to it and they will survive to eat the
mosquitoes. So the question is do we have to get thru another
bad year? Some of the worst was along the river where there are
backwater ponds that fill during wet cycles, spring thaw or heavy
rain. Because these areas are mostly pasture, they were not
sprayed as early in the season as they should have been. All
standing water ponds need the floats for mosquito control.
SuE
http://orchids.legolas.org/gallery/albums.php

Sue,

I don't disagree with you that the West Nile virus CAN be deadly. That is
something I did not, and will not, deny. However, according to your CDC (an
American institution, not Canadian), in 2002, there were only a little over
4000 cases of it, and fewer than 300 deaths. And the CDC estimated that the
risk of dying from West Nile is slightly less than that for the flu (less
than 1 in a thousand). In contrast, 10% to 20% of any given population of
human beings will get the flu in any given flu season. In the US that is,
what, something of the order of 40,000,000 people? And of these, there
would likely be something a little over 100,000 deaths in a typical year.
Alas, I don't have the stats for 2003, but I wouldn't expect them to be too
different. With the case of ebola, there have been only about 1400 cases
since it was first reported, almost all of whom died. Given the stats,
unless you're one of the unlucky few who get a serious case of one of these
diseases, about the only time I'd start to worry is if a new virus appeared
that was as deadly as ebola and as contagious as the flu.

I am not surprised that the one person you write about came close to dying
because the doctor didn't believe she had it. It is to be expected that,
with so few cases nationally, that few doctors get first hand experience
with it and consequently misdiagnose it. And as alays, misdiagnosis can be
deadly.

As an ecologist, with some experience and expertise in risk assessment, I do
not believe wide spread spraying for mosquitos in rural areas is warranted,
although some farmers with significant amounts of livestock may well
disagree.

Cheers,

Ted


"Susan Erickson" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 4 Feb 2004 11:13:45 -0500, "Ted Byers"
wrote:

Frank,
Anyway, this isn't the forum for a detailed treatment of risk analysis
and
public health. I just wrote what I did to enable you to effectively deal
with your fears as they impinge on how you deal with your orchids.

Cheers,

Ted


I have to both agree and disagree with you Ted.
I am from Colorado. We were hit the HARDEST of any place with
the West Nile this last year. It kills birds, horses, and
humans. It mimics the flu but is not an easy recovery. It will
be 6-8 months for someone that had a serious case. The saving
grace is mosquitoes are easy to avoid.... stay inside, wear long
sleeves, wear deet, change bird bath water, make sure toys and
pots standing around are not collecting water. It takes 3 days
for the water cycle.

Yes, I know several people who had West Nile. A couple that came
close to dying. One of those was because she went to Washington
state to visit and the Dr. would not believe she had West Nile.

They say that either this year or next our birds will start
showing a natural immunity to it and they will survive to eat the
mosquitoes. So the question is do we have to get thru another
bad year? Some of the worst was along the river where there are
backwater ponds that fill during wet cycles, spring thaw or heavy
rain. Because these areas are mostly pasture, they were not
sprayed as early in the season as they should have been. All
standing water ponds need the floats for mosquito control.
SuE
http://orchids.legolas.org/gallery/albums.php

On Wed, 4 Feb 2004 11:13:45 -0500, "Ted Byers"
wrote:

Frank,
Anyway, this isn't the forum for a detailed treatment of risk analysis and
public health. I just wrote what I did to enable you to effectively deal
with your fears as they impinge on how you deal with your orchids.

Cheers,

Ted


I have to both agree and disagree with you Ted.
I am from Colorado. We were hit the HARDEST of any place with
the West Nile this last year. It kills birds, horses, and
humans. It mimics the flu but is not an easy recovery. It will
be 6-8 months for someone that had a serious case. The saving
grace is mosquitoes are easy to avoid.... stay inside, wear long
sleeves, wear deet, change bird bath water, make sure toys and
pots standing around are not collecting water. It takes 3 days
for the water cycle.

Yes, I know several people who had West Nile. A couple that came
close to dying. One of those was because she went to Washington
state to visit and the Dr. would not believe she had West Nile.

They say that either this year or next our birds will start
showing a natural immunity to it and they will survive to eat the
mosquitoes. So the question is do we have to get thru another
bad year? Some of the worst was along the river where there are
backwater ponds that fill during wet cycles, spring thaw or heavy
rain. Because these areas are mostly pasture, they were not
sprayed as early in the season as they should have been. All
standing water ponds need the floats for mosquito control.
SuE
http://orchids.legolas.org/gallery/albums.php

Sue,

I don't disagree with you that the West Nile virus CAN be deadly. That is
something I did not, and will not, deny. However, according to your CDC (an
American institution, not Canadian), in 2002, there were only a little over
4000 cases of it, and fewer than 300 deaths. And the CDC estimated that the
risk of dying from West Nile is slightly less than that for the flu (less
than 1 in a thousand). In contrast, 10% to 20% of any given population of
human beings will get the flu in any given flu season. In the US that is,
what, something of the order of 40,000,000 people? And of these, there
would likely be something a little over 100,000 deaths in a typical year.
Alas, I don't have the stats for 2003, but I wouldn't expect them to be too
different. With the case of ebola, there have been only about 1400 cases
since it was first reported, almost all of whom died. Given the stats,
unless you're one of the unlucky few who get a serious case of one of these
diseases, about the only time I'd start to worry is if a new virus appeared
that was as deadly as ebola and as contagious as the flu.

I am not surprised that the one person you write about came close to dying
because the doctor didn't believe she had it. It is to be expected that,
with so few cases nationally, that few doctors get first hand experience
with it and consequently misdiagnose it. And as alays, misdiagnosis can be
deadly.

As an ecologist, with some experience and expertise in risk assessment, I do
not believe wide spread spraying for mosquitos in rural areas is warranted,
although some farmers with significant amounts of livestock may well
disagree.

Cheers,

Ted


"Susan Erickson" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 4 Feb 2004 11:13:45 -0500, "Ted Byers"
wrote:

Frank,
Anyway, this isn't the forum for a detailed treatment of risk analysis
and
public health. I just wrote what I did to enable you to effectively deal
with your fears as they impinge on how you deal with your orchids.

Cheers,

Ted


I have to both agree and disagree with you Ted.
I am from Colorado. We were hit the HARDEST of any place with
the West Nile this last year. It kills birds, horses, and
humans. It mimics the flu but is not an easy recovery. It will
be 6-8 months for someone that had a serious case. The saving
grace is mosquitoes are easy to avoid.... stay inside, wear long
sleeves, wear deet, change bird bath water, make sure toys and
pots standing around are not collecting water. It takes 3 days
for the water cycle.

Yes, I know several people who had West Nile. A couple that came
close to dying. One of those was because she went to Washington
state to visit and the Dr. would not believe she had West Nile.

They say that either this year or next our birds will start
showing a natural immunity to it and they will survive to eat the
mosquitoes. So the question is do we have to get thru another
bad year? Some of the worst was along the river where there are
backwater ponds that fill during wet cycles, spring thaw or heavy
rain. Because these areas are mostly pasture, they were not
sprayed as early in the season as they should have been. All
standing water ponds need the floats for mosquito control.
SuE
http://orchids.legolas.org/gallery/albums.php

On Wed, 4 Feb 2004 11:13:45 -0500, "Ted Byers"
wrote:

Frank,
Anyway, this isn't the forum for a detailed treatment of risk analysis and
public health. I just wrote what I did to enable you to effectively deal
with your fears as they impinge on how you deal with your orchids.

Cheers,

Ted


I have to both agree and disagree with you Ted.
I am from Colorado. We were hit the HARDEST of any place with
the West Nile this last year. It kills birds, horses, and
humans. It mimics the flu but is not an easy recovery. It will
be 6-8 months for someone that had a serious case. The saving
grace is mosquitoes are easy to avoid.... stay inside, wear long
sleeves, wear deet, change bird bath water, make sure toys and
pots standing around are not collecting water. It takes 3 days
for the water cycle.

Yes, I know several people who had West Nile. A couple that came
close to dying. One of those was because she went to Washington
state to visit and the Dr. would not believe she had West Nile.

They say that either this year or next our birds will start
showing a natural immunity to it and they will survive to eat the
mosquitoes. So the question is do we have to get thru another
bad year? Some of the worst was along the river where there are
backwater ponds that fill during wet cycles, spring thaw or heavy
rain. Because these areas are mostly pasture, they were not
sprayed as early in the season as they should have been. All
standing water ponds need the floats for mosquito control.
SuE
http://orchids.legolas.org/gallery/albums.php

Sue,

I don't disagree with you that the West Nile virus CAN be deadly. That is
something I did not, and will not, deny. However, according to your CDC (an
American institution, not Canadian), in 2002, there were only a little over
4000 cases of it, and fewer than 300 deaths. And the CDC estimated that the
risk of dying from West Nile is slightly less than that for the flu (less
than 1 in a thousand). In contrast, 10% to 20% of any given population of
human beings will get the flu in any given flu season. In the US that is,
what, something of the order of 40,000,000 people? And of these, there
would likely be something a little over 100,000 deaths in a typical year.
Alas, I don't have the stats for 2003, but I wouldn't expect them to be too
different. With the case of ebola, there have been only about 1400 cases
since it was first reported, almost all of whom died. Given the stats,
unless you're one of the unlucky few who get a serious case of one of these
diseases, about the only time I'd start to worry is if a new virus appeared
that was as deadly as ebola and as contagious as the flu.

I am not surprised that the one person you write about came close to dying
because the doctor didn't believe she had it. It is to be expected that,
with so few cases nationally, that few doctors get first hand experience
with it and consequently misdiagnose it. And as alays, misdiagnosis can be
deadly.

As an ecologist, with some experience and expertise in risk assessment, I do
not believe wide spread spraying for mosquitos in rural areas is warranted,
although some farmers with significant amounts of livestock may well
disagree.

Cheers,

Ted


"Susan Erickson" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 4 Feb 2004 11:13:45 -0500, "Ted Byers"
wrote:

Frank,
Anyway, this isn't the forum for a detailed treatment of risk analysis
and
public health. I just wrote what I did to enable you to effectively deal
with your fears as they impinge on how you deal with your orchids.

Cheers,

Ted


I have to both agree and disagree with you Ted.
I am from Colorado. We were hit the HARDEST of any place with
the West Nile this last year. It kills birds, horses, and
humans. It mimics the flu but is not an easy recovery. It will
be 6-8 months for someone that had a serious case. The saving
grace is mosquitoes are easy to avoid.... stay inside, wear long
sleeves, wear deet, change bird bath water, make sure toys and
pots standing around are not collecting water. It takes 3 days
for the water cycle.

Yes, I know several people who had West Nile. A couple that came
close to dying. One of those was because she went to Washington
state to visit and the Dr. would not believe she had West Nile.

They say that either this year or next our birds will start
showing a natural immunity to it and they will survive to eat the
mosquitoes. So the question is do we have to get thru another
bad year? Some of the worst was along the river where there are
backwater ponds that fill during wet cycles, spring thaw or heavy
rain. Because these areas are mostly pasture, they were not
sprayed as early in the season as they should have been. All
standing water ponds need the floats for mosquito control.
SuE
http://orchids.legolas.org/gallery/albums.php

"Ted Byers" wrote in message ...
Sue,

I don't disagree with you that the West Nile virus CAN be deadly. That is
something I did not, and will not, deny. However, according to your CDC (an
American institution, not Canadian), in 2002, there were only a little over
4000 cases of it, and fewer than 300 deaths. And the CDC estimated that the
risk of dying from West Nile is slightly less than that for the flu (less
than 1 in a thousand)....

OTOH, if you get it, according to the numbers you cite, the chance of
dying is about 10%--not good odds. (are you sure about those numbers?)
It also can produce debilitating long term effects in people who
survive it.

OTOH, I think the chance of getting WN from a well maintained SH setup
is vanishingly small.


J. Del Col

"J. Del Col" wrote in message
m...
"Ted Byers" wrote in message
...
Sue,

I don't disagree with you that the West Nile virus CAN be deadly. That
is
something I did not, and will not, deny. However, according to your CDC
(an
American institution, not Canadian), in 2002, there were only a little
over
4000 cases of it, and fewer than 300 deaths. And the CDC estimated that
the
risk of dying from West Nile is slightly less than that for the flu
(less
than 1 in a thousand)....

OTOH, if you get it, according to the numbers you cite, the chance of
dying is about 10%--not good odds. (are you sure about those numbers?)
It also can produce debilitating long term effects in people who
survive it.


True enough, but identified cases represent only those who showed symptoms
after having been infected. The only way to know the total number who were
infected is to test for antibodies to the virus. That is another key
statistic: the probability of showing symptoms of disease once one has been
infected. Unfortunately, I don't have data for that statistic.

As for the quality of the data, it comes from the CDC, and so can be trusted
to the extent the CDC can be trusted to do the job right.

I am well aware of the debilitating effects of it on survivors, and I do not
take that lightly. But that does not make it rational to fear it because
infection is so rare. You are much more likely to die from a traffic
accident on the roads, or from heart disease or cancer, or one of any numbr
of others causes. There are a great many other risks that are much more
significant, and we all have only limited resources, WRT both time and
money, and so have to evaluate all of the possible risks that we face in
order to rationally set priorities.

Yes, it does look like the probability of dying is quite high if you have
shown symptoms of disease, but that is why I raised the example of ebola.
For those outbreaks for which there were enough cases to produce an estimate
of mortality rate, the probability of dying from ebola one you get it is
somewhere between 50% and 80%. And yet no one fears ebola. Indeed, it is
not rational to fear it since there have been only 1500 cases or so world
wide since the first reported outbreak decades ago.


OTOH, I think the chance of getting WN from a well maintained SH setup
is vanishingly small.

Given what I know of the natural history of mosquitoes (or those with which
I have some familiarity), I would gues that it is not possible unless the
surface of the water is exposed to the air and stagnant. Is there such a
thing as a semi-hydro setup where these conditions prevail?

Cheers,

Ted

Ted wrote:

"Given what I know of the natural history of mosquitoes (or those with which
I have some familiarity), I would gues that it is not possible unless the
surface of the water is exposed to the air and stagnant. Is there such a
thing as a semi-hydro setup where these conditions prevail?"

Sure there is - one that is not done properly!



--

Ray Barkalow - First Rays Orchids - www.firstrays.com
Plants, Supplies, Books, Artwork, and Lots of Free Info!

.. . . . . . . . . . .
"Ted Byers" wrote in message
.. .

"J. Del Col" wrote in message
m...
"Ted Byers" wrote in message
...
Sue,

I don't disagree with you that the West Nile virus CAN be deadly.
That
is
something I did not, and will not, deny. However, according to your
CDC
(an
American institution, not Canadian), in 2002, there were only a little
over
4000 cases of it, and fewer than 300 deaths. And the CDC estimated
that
the
risk of dying from West Nile is slightly less than that for the flu
(less
than 1 in a thousand)....

OTOH, if you get it, according to the numbers you cite, the chance of
dying is about 10%--not good odds. (are you sure about those numbers?)
It also can produce debilitating long term effects in people who
survive it.


True enough, but identified cases represent only those who showed symptoms
after having been infected. The only way to know the total number who
were
infected is to test for antibodies to the virus. That is another key
statistic: the probability of showing symptoms of disease once one has
been
infected. Unfortunately, I don't have data for that statistic.

As for the quality of the data, it comes from the CDC, and so can be
trusted
to the extent the CDC can be trusted to do the job right.

I am well aware of the debilitating effects of it on survivors, and I do
not
take that lightly. But that does not make it rational to fear it because
infection is so rare. You are much more likely to die from a traffic
accident on the roads, or from heart disease or cancer, or one of any
numbr
of others causes. There are a great many other risks that are much more
significant, and we all have only limited resources, WRT both time and
money, and so have to evaluate all of the possible risks that we face in
order to rationally set priorities.

Yes, it does look like the probability of dying is quite high if you have
shown symptoms of disease, but that is why I raised the example of ebola.
For those outbreaks for which there were enough cases to produce an
estimate
of mortality rate, the probability of dying from ebola one you get it is
somewhere between 50% and 80%. And yet no one fears ebola. Indeed, it is
not rational to fear it since there have been only 1500 cases or so world
wide since the first reported outbreak decades ago.


OTOH, I think the chance of getting WN from a well maintained SH setup
is vanishingly small.

Given what I know of the natural history of mosquitoes (or those with
which
I have some familiarity), I would gues that it is not possible unless the
surface of the water is exposed to the air and stagnant. Is there such a
thing as a semi-hydro setup where these conditions prevail?

Cheers,

Ted