1. A have a lungwort that normally flowers in spring. It's just sent up
a couple of stalks with buds on them
2. I have a Cyclamen Coum in flower (no leaves)

Steve Harris - Cheltenham - Real address steve AT netservs DOT com
A useful bit of gardening software at http://www.netservs.com/garden/

Is that really enough evidence for an indictment?


"Steve Harris" wrote in message
...
1. A have a lungwort that normally flowers in spring. It's just sent up
a couple of stalks with buds on them
2. I have a Cyclamen Coum in flower (no leaves)

Steve Harris - Cheltenham - Real address steve AT netservs DOT com
A useful bit of gardening software at http://www.netservs.com/garden/

"Cereus-validus......." wrote in message
m...
Is that really enough evidence for an indictment?


"Steve Harris" wrote in message
...
1. A have a lungwort that normally flowers in spring. It's just sent up
a couple of stalks with buds on them
2. I have a Cyclamen Coum in flower (no leaves)

Steve Harris - Cheltenham - Real address steve AT netservs DOT com
A useful bit of gardening software at http://www.netservs.com/garden/



it is in Europe now..............

In article ,
michael adams wrote:


There are claims even among Global Warming supporting
meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves
are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically
global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream
and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from
the Central Asian landmass to the East.

Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where
people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not
obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time
the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of
that as a correlated random walk).


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

Nick Maclaren wrote:
In article ,
michael adams wrote:


There are claims even among Global Warming supporting
meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves
are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because
ironically
global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream
and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from
the Central Asian landmass to the East.

Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where
people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not
obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time
the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of
that as a correlated random walk).

I'll say this for it, though: pdq does mean "pretty damn quick".

--
Mike.

In article ,
michael adams wrote:

Any extrapolation of climate change based only on around 100 years
worth of hard data of varying quality and reliabilty will
of necessity require a fair amount of conjecture.

That is true, but is seriously misleading, because there is a LOT
more data of adequate quality - if you are up to handling it.

If you're of the opinion that your conjecture is superior to that
of the meteorologists whose opinion I quoted then good for you.

No, my statement is not conjecture. I am a statistician,
incidentally.

To repeat what I said, there is damn-all evidence for a cyclic
phenomenon in this case and, in situations like this one, almost all
cases of apparent cycles are created by something like an ARIMA
process. I could also add that the observations from previous
centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory
that there is a single predominant cycle.

While I am pretty rusty in this aspect of statistics, I could still
explain in more detail than I expect you want to know about this
issue.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

The message
from "michael adams" contains these words:

There are claims even among Global Warming supporting
meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves
are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically
global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream
and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from
the Central Asian landmass to the East.

Flippin cold war all over again...

--
Rusty
Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk
http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/

The message
from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words:

I could also add that the observations from previous
centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory
that there is a single predominant cycle.

Quite. I favour Velocette, but others like Triumph...

--
Rusty
Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk
http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/

"Jaques d'Alltrades" wrote in message
k...
The message
from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words:

I could also add that the observations from previous
centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory
that there is a single predominant cycle.

Quite. I favour Velocette, but others like Triumph...


Matchless G9

"michael adams" wrote in message
...

"Nick Maclaren" wrote in message
...
In article ,
michael adams wrote:


There are claims even among Global Warming supporting
meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves
are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically
global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream
and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from
the Central Asian landmass to the East.

Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where
people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not
obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time
the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of
that as a correlated random walk).

...

Any extrapolation of climate change based only on around 100 years
worth of hard data of varying quality and reliabilty will
of necessity require a fair amount of conjecture.

If you're of the opinion that your conjecture is superior to that
of the meteorologists whose opinion I quoted then good for you.

All else is hand waving IMHO.

There is one thing for sure - it's going to get a whole lot hotter around
here in 6 billion years or so.

"Jaques d'Alltrades" wrote in message
k...
The message
from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words:

I could also add that the observations from previous
centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory
that there is a single predominant cycle.

Quite. I favour Velocette, but others like Triumph...

I read on teletext today that some ladies are cycling around england on
Harley-Davidson bikes.

I wasn't aware that they made bicycles!

--
Alan

Reply to alan (dot) holmes27 (at) virgin (dot) net


--
Rusty
Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk
http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/

The message
from "michael adams" contains these words:

I can't say fairer than that, now can I?

You didn't ask Dubya, didya?

--
Rusty
Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk
http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/

In article ,
michael adams wrote:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,1533737,00.html

And you are regarded THAT as being an ACCURATE representation of
what he said? Have you NO experience of how scientific statements
get mangled in the press?

Professor Saunders says that the current situation is a result of
natural climate variability. Drought trends going back more than
100 years show this sort of natural cycle repeating itself time
and again. He also rules out global warming as a contributing
factor since it is expected to cause wetter winters.

And there you can see it. Assuming that he knows his statistics,
the first sentence is likely to be an accurate representation of
what he said, but the term 'natural cycle' was almost certainly
introduced as a loose description by the reporter.

I'm not in the habit of posting unsupported rubbish on NewsGroups

Then please don't do so again.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

The message
from "Mike" contains these words:
"Jaques d'Alltrades" wrote in message
k...
The message
from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words:

I could also add that the observations from previous
centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory
that there is a single predominant cycle.

Quite. I favour Velocette, but others like Triumph...


Matchless G9

Now if you'd said 'Silver Hawk'...

--
Rusty
Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk
http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/

Variously it was written:
I could also add that the observations from previous
centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory
that there is a single predominant cycle.

Quite. I favour Velocette, but others like Triumph...

I read on teletext today that some ladies are cycling around england on
Harley-Davidson bikes.

I wasn't aware that they made bicycles!
Alan

I wasn't aware that they made bikes !
( motorised armchairs, more like)
mallards

Bring back my trusty Comet and Rapide ,, I wish,,,,sigh,,,

PS Those ladies must have strong legs then, not to mention the thighs
and,,,