According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where

"zaax" wrote in message
...
According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just
ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where

We get this nonsense every year. Weather forecasters are notoriously bad at
forecasting more than five days ahead but they will keep doing it. When
they accidentally hit on a 'correct' forecast we all remember it, but when
they get it wrong we conveniently forget.
R.

On 2013-03-13 12:01:24 +0000, zaax said:

According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one
just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where

Given that any reputable met source will tell you that a 5 day forecast
is stretching it, that's not worth a passing thought.
--

Sacha
www.hillhousenursery.com
South Devon
www.helpforheroes.org.uk

On 13/03/2013 17:48, Sacha wrote:
On 2013-03-13 12:01:24 +0000, zaax said:

According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one
just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where

Given that any reputable met source will tell you that a 5 day forecast
is stretching it, that's not worth a passing thought.

And yet the Met Office make a pile of money selling long range forecasts
to farmers etc. I suppose these must be computer predictions based on
past weather patterns?

"zaax" wrote in message
...
According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just
ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where

Since this time last year they confidently predicted drought I would wait
before investing in an ark!


--
Charlie, Gardening in Cornwall
Holders of National Collections of Clematis viticella
and Lapageria rosea cvs
http://www.roselandhouse.co.uk

On 2013-03-13 19:38:33 +0000, stuart noble said:

On 13/03/2013 17:48, Sacha wrote:
On 2013-03-13 12:01:24 +0000, zaax said:

According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one
just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where

Given that any reputable met source will tell you that a 5 day forecast
is stretching it, that's not worth a passing thought.

And yet the Met Office make a pile of money selling long range
forecasts to farmers etc. I suppose these must be computer predictions
based on past weather patterns?

No idea, to be frank. I would suggest that all you can predict re
British weather is that it may be a bit warmer in spring and summer
than it is in autumn and winter. I am married to a nurseryman who
watches the weather forecast twice a day and is never surprised at the
actual weather varying from the forecast or doing precisely what it
says. Within one day we can experience rain, sun, gale, no wind, cloud
and at night, frost. The only thing that makes him really cross - from
a business pov - is hearing that it's piddling with rain in Devon (BIG
county)when we're looking out at brilliant sunshine. So - forecasters
do their best and why wouldn't they? But this country is an island
subjected to ever-changing conditions from several directions.
Certainty is not an option.
--

Sacha
www.hillhousenursery.com
South Devon
www.helpforheroes.org.uk

On Wed, 13 Mar 2013 19:38:33 +0000, stuart noble wrote:

On 13/03/2013 17:48, Sacha wrote:
On 2013-03-13 12:01:24 +0000, zaax said:

According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one
just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where

Given that any reputable met source will tell you that a 5 day forecast
is stretching it, that's not worth a passing thought.

And yet the Met Office make a pile of money selling long range forecasts
to farmers etc. I suppose these must be computer predictions based on
past weather patterns?

Look at http://www.ecmwf.int/.

They do medium range weather forecasts.

There are a lot of huge computers out there trying to predict what the
weather will do but if you are asking if a band of rain will pass over
Kent or Norfolk in six months time then there is no chance.

Short range forecasts are pretty good but then a lot of that is based on
using radar and satellites to watch weather systems heading towards us
across the Atlantic.

I think most of the longer term weather forecasting is probably based on
guessing where the jet stream is going to be in six months time.

Cheers

Dave R

In article , David.WE.Roberts
writes
There are a lot of huge computers out there trying to predict what the
weather will do but if you are asking if a band of rain will pass over
Kent or Norfolk in six months time then there is no chance.

So it will be safe to go out in Kent and Norfolk without a brolly in 6
months time

--
regards andyw

In article ,
David.WE.Roberts wrote:
On Wed, 13 Mar 2013 19:38:33 +0000, stuart noble wrote:
On 13/03/2013 17:48, Sacha wrote:
On 2013-03-13 12:01:24 +0000, zaax said:

According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one
just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where

Given that any reputable met source will tell you that a 5 day forecast
is stretching it, that's not worth a passing thought.

Actually, if it is described competently and not dumbed down,
they are pretty reliable up to 5 days and can be pushed to 10.

And yet the Met Office make a pile of money selling long range forecasts
to farmers etc. I suppose these must be computer predictions based on
past weather patterns?

Essentially, yes. Plus a lot of modelling of how things might
develop, using a mixture of fluid dynamics and past history to
guide the modelling.

Look at http://www.ecmwf.int/.

They do medium range weather forecasts.

There are a lot of huge computers out there trying to predict what the
weather will do but if you are asking if a band of rain will pass over
Kent or Norfolk in six months time then there is no chance.

Precisely. And it is only recently that the medium range ones have
become even slightly more reliable than just using the past decade's
average. And they are only slightly better, even now! Note that
this is in terms of probabilities and not details.

It was only when the satellites went up that the short term ones
became any better than "The same as the day before".


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

On 14/03/2013 09:28, David.WE.Roberts wrote:
On Wed, 13 Mar 2013 19:38:33 +0000, stuart noble wrote:

On 13/03/2013 17:48, Sacha wrote:
On 2013-03-13 12:01:24 +0000, zaax said:

According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one
just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where

Given that any reputable met source will tell you that a 5 day forecast
is stretching it, that's not worth a passing thought.

And yet the Met Office make a pile of money selling long range forecasts
to farmers etc. I suppose these must be computer predictions based on
past weather patterns?

Look at http://www.ecmwf.int/.

They do medium range weather forecasts.

Thanks. Looks like only the first 6 days is free!

There are a lot of huge computers out there trying to predict what the
weather will do but if you are asking if a band of rain will pass over
Kent or Norfolk in six months time then there is no chance.

Short range forecasts are pretty good but then a lot of that is based on
using radar and satellites to watch weather systems heading towards us
across the Atlantic.

I think most of the longer term weather forecasting is probably based on
guessing where the jet stream is going to be in six months time.

Cheers

Dave R

On Wed, 13 Mar 2013 12:08:59 -0000, "Ragnar"
wrote:


"zaax" wrote in message
...
According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just
ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where

We get this nonsense every year. Weather forecasters are notoriously bad at
forecasting more than five days ahead but they will keep doing it. When
they accidentally hit on a 'correct' forecast we all remember it, but when
they get it wrong we conveniently forget.
R.


Stats show that for a specific area (postcode) the forecast is usually
correct for 24 hours ahead. It gets less reliable as more days ahead
are considered. Mistakes are usually due to weather forecasters trying
generalising for large areas. These days anyone with a web connection
can get their area forecast directly from the computer model making
forecasters redundant

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/ or http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Steve

--
EasyNN-plus. Neural Networks plus. http://www.easynn.com
SwingNN. Forecast with Neural Networks. http://www.swingnn.com
JustNN. Just Neural Networks. http://www.justnn.com

On Wed, 13 Mar 2013 05:01:24 -0700 (PDT), zaax
wrote:

According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where

You said 'forecasters'. How many have you consulted?
I'll bet you can find one who forecasts a drought.

In article ,
Fuschia wrote:
On Wed, 13 Mar 2013 05:01:24 -0700 (PDT), zaax
wrote:

According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where

You said 'forecasters'. How many have you consulted?
I'll bet you can find one who forecasts a drought.

I consulted my four castors and they were silent on the subject.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

On 2013-03-14 17:56:51 +0000, said:

In article ,
Fuschia wrote:
On Wed, 13 Mar 2013 05:01:24 -0700 (PDT), zaax
wrote:

According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one
just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where

You said 'forecasters'. How many have you consulted?
I'll bet you can find one who forecasts a drought.

I consulted my four castors and they were silent on the subject.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

Not a squeak out of them, eh?
--

Sacha
www.hillhousenursery.com
South Devon
www.helpforheroes.org.uk

On 14/03/2013 18:06, Sacha wrote:
On 2013-03-14 17:56:51 +0000, said:

In article ,
Fuschia wrote:
On Wed, 13 Mar 2013 05:01:24 -0700 (PDT), zaax
wrote:

According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet
one just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every
where

You said 'forecasters'. How many have you consulted?
I'll bet you can find one who forecasts a drought.

I consulted my four castors and they were silent on the subject.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

Not a squeak out of them, eh?

Pollux!