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Sacha[_11_] 27-08-2013 06:03 PM

Thunder on the right!
 
Thunder and now rain - no lightning yet. Stair rods of water bouncing
off the greenhouse roofs, so I hope everything in the garden soaks it
all up and has a lovely, refreshing drink.
--

Sacha
www.hillhousenursery.com
South Devon
www.helpforheroes.org.uk


'Mike'[_4_] 27-08-2013 06:39 PM

Thunder on the right!
 
Oh dear. Beautiful sunshine here.

Just been out shredding for the compost, no sign of rain on the radar either
:-)

Enjoy your rain

Mike
South East Coast of the Isle of Wight.






"Sacha" wrote in message ...

Thunder and now rain - no lightning yet. Stair rods of water bouncing
off the greenhouse roofs, so I hope everything in the garden soaks it
all up and has a lovely, refreshing drink.
--

Sacha
www.hillhousenursery.com
South Devon
www.helpforheroes.org.uk


David Hill 27-08-2013 08:29 PM

Thunder on the right!
 
On 27/08/2013 18:03, Sacha wrote:
Thunder and now rain - no lightning yet. Stair rods of water bouncing
off the greenhouse roofs, so I hope everything in the garden soaks it
all up and has a lovely, refreshing drink.


No thanks Sacha, please keep it down there,
I've spent almost 5 hours yesterday and a further 2 hours this afternoon
watering and feeding the dahlias out the field, that seems to be a
problem with pots and coir,.
David from a pleasant, dry side of Swansea Bay.

Sacha[_11_] 27-08-2013 10:12 PM

Thunder on the right!
 
On 2013-08-27 20:29:11 +0100, David Hill said:

On 27/08/2013 18:03, Sacha wrote:
Thunder and now rain - no lightning yet. Stair rods of water bouncing
off the greenhouse roofs, so I hope everything in the garden soaks it
all up and has a lovely, refreshing drink.


No thanks Sacha, please keep it down there,
I've spent almost 5 hours yesterday and a further 2 hours this
afternoon watering and feeding the dahlias out the field, that seems to
be a problem with pots and coir,.
David from a pleasant, dry side of Swansea Bay.


Hope you get your wish, David. The very heavy rain stopped after about
10 minutes. Ray came in soaked just getting from house to car to house!
Then we had a steady but fine rain for about an hour. Both were
welcome in terms of freshening up the gardening and meaning there's
less watering outside tomorrow on the Nursery. Matthew drove back from
Plymouth this afternoon, before the storm reached us and said that, at
one point, the windscreen wipers couldn't cope and it was almost as
black as night.
--

Sacha
www.hillhousenursery.com
South Devon
www.helpforheroes.org.uk


Dave Liquorice[_2_] 27-08-2013 11:42 PM

Thunder on the right!
 
On Tue, 27 Aug 2013 22:12:03 +0100, Sacha wrote:

The very heavy rain stopped after about 10 minutes. Ray came in soaked
just getting from house to car to house!


Daft bugger, really heavy ran hardly ever lasts that long in this
country, 10 or 15 mins at the most. I just sit in the car and wait,
enjoying being dry whilst watching it belt down.

--
Cheers
Dave.




Sacha[_11_] 28-08-2013 07:00 AM

Thunder on the right!
 
On 2013-08-27 23:42:41 +0100, Dave Liquorice said:

On Tue, 27 Aug 2013 22:12:03 +0100, Sacha wrote:

The very heavy rain stopped after about 10 minutes. Ray came in soaked
just getting from house to car to house!


Daft bugger, really heavy ran hardly ever lasts that long in this
country, 10 or 15 mins at the most. I just sit in the car and wait,
enjoying being dry whilst watching it belt down.


What can I say? His ickle wifey was waiting for him. ;-)
--

Sacha
www.hillhousenursery.com
South Devon
www.helpforheroes.org.uk


[email protected] 28-08-2013 09:58 AM

Thunder on the right!
 
In article ,
Jake wrote:
On Tue, 27 Aug 2013 20:29:11 +0100, David Hill
wrote:
On 27/08/2013 18:03, Sacha wrote:

Thunder and now rain - no lightning yet. Stair rods of water bouncing
off the greenhouse roofs, so I hope everything in the garden soaks it
all up and has a lovely, refreshing drink.


No thanks Sacha, please keep it down there,
I've spent almost 5 hours yesterday and a further 2 hours this afternoon
watering and feeding the dahlias out the field, that seems to be a
problem with pots and coir,.
David from a pleasant, dry side of Swansea Bay.


I'd just like the Met Office to make up its mind. I know we can check
forecasts by different "providers" and there are some which are more
reliable but yesterday I saw "Dippy Derek" on BBC Wales saying you and
I will be dry till at least the weekend, then a national BBC presenter
saying you and I will get soaked tomorrow, the BBC weather site saying
only you will be getting wet and the Met Office web site warning of
rain for us both. That's four different forecasts from the same b*****
place within 5 minutes!


And attempting to match your desire is PRECISELY the reason that
the reports keep changing!

What most people will not admit (though most realise it) is that
predicting the weather is intrinsically a statistical matter, and
there is absolutely no possibility of giving definite, reliable
forecasts. What is more, the unreliability is not purely in
matters of degree, but in kind.

Back in the days when they concentrated on describing the likely
movements and properties of air masses, the presentation was
better (though the data available were MUCH worse). At least
the Met. Office's web page has improved by being less definite
in giving the probability of precipitation, but a reliable
forecast would need to be highly probabilistic and conditional.
I would dearly love to see them provide such a page for the
general public.

Note that this isn't something that can be improved by better
science, data, supercomputers or anything else - it's a basic
property of the problem and is insoluble in an absolute sense.
Pure mathematicians will know what I mean by that.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

David Hill 28-08-2013 11:13 AM

Thunder on the right!
 
On 28/08/2013 11:01, Martin wrote:
On Tue, 27 Aug 2013 18:03:10 +0100, Sacha
wrote:

Thunder and now rain - no lightning yet. Stair rods of water bouncing
off the greenhouse roofs, so I hope everything in the garden soaks it
all up and has a lovely, refreshing drink.


No thunder, no rain, just fair weather cumulous and lost of sunshine.

We have the same lost sunshine.

[email protected] 28-08-2013 11:54 AM

Thunder on the right!
 
In article ,
Martin wrote:

Back in the days when they concentrated on describing the likely
movements and properties of air masses, the presentation was
better (though the data available were MUCH worse). At least
the Met. Office's web page has improved by being less definite
in giving the probability of precipitation, but a reliable
forecast would need to be highly probabilistic and conditional.
I would dearly love to see them provide such a page for the
general public.


The Dutch Met Office does but they try to cover the whole country with
just one forecast.


That's reasonable, given its size and lack of terrain, but they
really should have some adjustments for the times and probabilities
that a front is passing through or hovering there.

From long ago, in the time before their one computer, a Ferranti
Mercury, or any other computers were used by the Met Office for short
term forecast, I remember that short term forecasts for specific
locations like airfields were very accurate compared to general
forecast for the area in which the airfield was located. Perhaps
partly because forecasts were funded by the Air Ministry in those days
and the forecasters had vast experience of forecasting for airfields.


Sort of. It was because Old Fred had many decades of experience for
that particular location, and used his subconscious. The general
forecasts were based on the science, which was basic, and the data,
which was almost non-existent. They were little better than crude
guesswork.

My first job, in 1966, was physically within the Met. Office, and I
was programming a Mercury. It was completely inadequate for anything
as tricky as a forecast, though that was the sort of programming I
was trying to do.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

Sacha[_11_] 28-08-2013 01:37 PM

Thunder on the right!
 
On 2013-08-28 09:37:54 +0100, Jake said:

On Tue, 27 Aug 2013 20:29:11 +0100, David Hill
wrote:

On 27/08/2013 18:03, Sacha wrote:
Thunder and now rain - no lightning yet. Stair rods of water bouncing
off the greenhouse roofs, so I hope everything in the garden soaks it
all up and has a lovely, refreshing drink.


No thanks Sacha, please keep it down there,
I've spent almost 5 hours yesterday and a further 2 hours this afternoon
watering and feeding the dahlias out the field, that seems to be a
problem with pots and coir,.
David from a pleasant, dry side of Swansea Bay.


I'd just like the Met Office to make up its mind. I know we can check
forecasts by different "providers" and there are some which are more
reliable but yesterday I saw "Dippy Derek" on BBC Wales saying you and
I will be dry till at least the weekend, then a national BBC presenter
saying you and I will get soaked tomorrow, the BBC weather site saying
only you will be getting wet and the Met Office web site warning of
rain for us both. That's four different forecasts from the same b*****
place within 5 minutes!


Shall I 'have a word' next time I go to Exeter? ;-) I agree it's
infuriating and the same applies to us and proably everywhere else!
--

Sacha
www.hillhousenursery.com
South Devon
www.helpforheroes.org.uk


Dave Liquorice[_2_] 28-08-2013 02:47 PM

Thunder on the right!
 
On Wed, 28 Aug 2013 07:00:47 +0100, Sacha wrote:

The very heavy rain stopped after about 10 minutes. Ray came in

soaked
just getting from house to car to house!


Daft bugger, really heavy ran hardly ever lasts that long in this
country, 10 or 15 mins at the most. I just sit in the car and

wait,
enjoying being dry whilst watching it belt down.


What can I say? His ickle wifey was waiting for him. ;-)


I see, say no more. Nudge nudge, wink wink, say no more.

--
Cheers
Dave.




David Hill 28-08-2013 05:26 PM

Thunder on the right!
 
On 28/08/2013 14:47, Dave Liquorice wrote:
On Wed, 28 Aug 2013 07:00:47 +0100, Sacha wrote:

The very heavy rain stopped after about 10 minutes. Ray came in

soaked
just getting from house to car to house!

Daft bugger, really heavy ran hardly ever lasts that long in this
country, 10 or 15 mins at the most. I just sit in the car and

wait,
enjoying being dry whilst watching it belt down.


What can I say? His ickle wifey was waiting for him. ;-)


I see, say no more. Nudge nudge, wink wink, say no more.

But why did you send Ray out to the car in the first place?

Sacha[_11_] 28-08-2013 06:48 PM

Thunder on the right!
 
On 2013-08-28 17:26:07 +0100, David Hill said:

On 28/08/2013 14:47, Dave Liquorice wrote:
On Wed, 28 Aug 2013 07:00:47 +0100, Sacha wrote:

The very heavy rain stopped after about 10 minutes. Ray came in

soaked
just getting from house to car to house!

Daft bugger, really heavy ran hardly ever lasts that long in this
country, 10 or 15 mins at the most. I just sit in the car and

wait,
enjoying being dry whilst watching it belt down.

What can I say? His ickle wifey was waiting for him. ;-)


I see, say no more. Nudge nudge, wink wink, say no more.

But why did you send Ray out to the car in the first place?


Ye gods - it's the Grand Inqusitor Show here! ;-) He'd gone to see a
member of the family so when it was time to come home he made a dash
for the car and got soaked there at *that* house and this was added to
by the few paces from his car to our front door here at *this* house.
Whew! I hope I've now established I don't make him go outside and stand
in the rain just because it's fun!
--

Sacha
www.hillhousenursery.com
South Devon
www.helpforheroes.org.uk


'Mike'[_4_] 28-08-2013 06:53 PM

Thunder on the right!
 


"Sacha" wrote in message ...

On 2013-08-28 17:26:07 +0100, David Hill said:

On 28/08/2013 14:47, Dave Liquorice wrote:
On Wed, 28 Aug 2013 07:00:47 +0100, Sacha wrote:

The very heavy rain stopped after about 10 minutes. Ray came in

soaked
just getting from house to car to house!

Daft bugger, really heavy ran hardly ever lasts that long in this
country, 10 or 15 mins at the most. I just sit in the car and

wait,
enjoying being dry whilst watching it belt down.

What can I say? His ickle wifey was waiting for him. ;-)


I see, say no more. Nudge nudge, wink wink, say no more.

But why did you send Ray out to the car in the first place?


Ye gods - it's the Grand Inqusitor Show here! ;-) He'd gone to see a
member of the family so when it was time to come home he made a dash
for the car and got soaked there at *that* house and this was added to
by the few paces from his car to our front door here at *this* house.
Whew! I hope I've now established I don't make him go outside and stand
in the rain just because it's fun!
--

Sacha
www.hillhousenursery.com
South Devon
www.helpforheroes.org.uk

David Hill 28-08-2013 07:44 PM

Thunder on the right!
 
On 28/08/2013 18:48, Sacha wrote:
On 2013-08-28 17:26:07 +0100, David Hill said:

On 28/08/2013 14:47, Dave Liquorice wrote:
On Wed, 28 Aug 2013 07:00:47 +0100, Sacha wrote:

The very heavy rain stopped after about 10 minutes. Ray came in
soaked
just getting from house to car to house!

Daft bugger, really heavy ran hardly ever lasts that long in this
country, 10 or 15 mins at the most. I just sit in the car and
wait,
enjoying being dry whilst watching it belt down.

What can I say? His ickle wifey was waiting for him. ;-)

I see, say no more. Nudge nudge, wink wink, say no more.

But why did you send Ray out to the car in the first place?


Ye gods - it's the Grand Inqusitor Show here! ;-) He'd gone to see a
member of the family so when it was time to come home he made a dash for
the car and got soaked there at *that* house and this was added to by
the few paces from his car to our front door here at *this* house. Whew!
I hope I've now established I don't make him go outside and stand in the
rain just because it's fun!

Well we know what some wifes are like, "Oh could you just pop out and
get so and so from the car I forgot it", and we do wory about Ray,



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