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Old 20-07-2017, 01:13 PM posted to uk.d-i-y,uk.rec.gardening
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What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance of rain"?

1) It will rain for 40% of the day.
2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point.

I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are completely different meanings.
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Old 20-07-2017, 01:22 PM posted to uk.d-i-y,uk.rec.gardening
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On 20/07/2017 12:13, James Wilkinson Sword wrote:
What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance
of rain"?

1) It will rain for 40% of the day.
2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point.

I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are
completely different meanings.


I think it means 2
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Old 20-07-2017, 01:25 PM posted to uk.d-i-y,uk.rec.gardening
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On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:22:20 +0100, Ash Burton wrote:

On 20/07/2017 12:13, James Wilkinson Sword wrote:
What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance
of rain"?

1) It will rain for 40% of the day.
2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point.

I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are
completely different meanings.


I think it means 2


So pretty useless then. I have no idea if it will be for 20 minutes or the entire day.

--
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Old 20-07-2017, 01:39 PM posted to uk.d-i-y,uk.rec.gardening
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On 20/07/17 12:27, Jethro_uk wrote:
I cynically suspect that whatever methodology is being used, it allows a
retrospective "we got it right" approach.


The politically correct uncertainty principle.

The more technically correct a statment is, the less use it is.


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Old 20-07-2017, 01:44 PM posted to uk.rec.gardening
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On 2017-07-20 11:13:43 +0000, James Wilkinson Sword said:

What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance
of rain"?

1) It will rain for 40% of the day.
2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point.

I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2)
are completely different meanings.


It means there is a 40% chance that it will rain in the area to which
the forecast applies and during the period (often a day) specified.

It never means (1) and does not depend on the forecaster and is not a
matter of belief. Nor, happily, does it depend on google.

--
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nature.opcop.org.uk
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Old 20-07-2017, 01:46 PM posted to uk.d-i-y,uk.rec.gardening
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On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:22:20 +0100, Ash Burton
wrote:

On 20/07/2017 12:13, James Wilkinson Sword wrote:
What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance
of rain"?

1) It will rain for 40% of the day.
2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point.

I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are
completely different meanings.


I think it means 2


Yesterday Accuweather MinuteCast was showing no rain for at least
120mins - I only looked at the site because it was raining and I
hadn't noticed a forecast for it.

--
AnthonyL
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Old 20-07-2017, 01:56 PM posted to uk.d-i-y,uk.rec.gardening
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On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:46:10 +0100, AnthonyL wrote:

On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:22:20 +0100, Ash Burton
wrote:

On 20/07/2017 12:13, James Wilkinson Sword wrote:
What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance
of rain"?

1) It will rain for 40% of the day.
2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point.

I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are
completely different meanings.


I think it means 2


Yesterday Accuweather MinuteCast was showing no rain for at least
120mins - I only looked at the site because it was raining and I
hadn't noticed a forecast for it.


The best forecast I've found (if I'm already where I'm going to be and haven't moved in the last day) is my watch. It takes a pressure reading every minute and draws a graph of the next 12 hours of weather. Basically I look out the window and look at the graph, if it's going down then I know the weather will end up worse than it already is.

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German, the lovers French and it is all organized by the Swiss.

Hell is where the police are German, the chefs British, the mechanics
French, the lovers Swiss and it is all organized by Italians.
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Old 20-07-2017, 01:58 PM posted to uk.rec.gardening
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On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:44:54 +0100, Asha Santon wrote:

On 2017-07-20 11:13:43 +0000, James Wilkinson Sword said:

What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance
of rain"?

1) It will rain for 40% of the day.
2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point.

I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2)
are completely different meanings.


It means there is a 40% chance that it will rain in the area to which
the forecast applies and during the period (often a day) specified.

It never means (1) and does not depend on the forecaster and is not a
matter of belief. Nor, happily, does it depend on google.


So it's utterly useless then? 40% chance of rain could mean there's a 40% chance I'll get a light shower for half an hour at some point, or it could mean there's a 40% chance it will bucket down all day. They should estimate the AMOUNT of rain that is going to fall, eg so many mm.

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Old 20-07-2017, 01:58 PM posted to uk.d-i-y,uk.rec.gardening
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On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:27:17 +0100, Jethro_uk wrote:

On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:13:43 +0100, James Wilkinson Sword wrote:

What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance
of rain"?

1) It will rain for 40% of the day.
2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point.

I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are
completely different meanings.


I've taken it to mean that the chance of rain within the forecast area is
40%, which is subtly different.

In the last month, the Met Office has issued 3 48 hours weather warnings
for rain for my area. However, the chance of rain each time never
exceeded 5%.

I cynically suspect that whatever methodology is being used, it allows a
retrospective "we got it right" approach.


I suspect that also.

--
Change is inevitable, except from a vending machine.
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Old 20-07-2017, 02:20 PM posted to uk.rec.gardening
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On 2017-07-20 11:58:05 +0000, James Wilkinson Sword said:

On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:44:54 +0100, Asha Santon wrote:

On 2017-07-20 11:13:43 +0000, James Wilkinson Sword said:

What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance
of rain"?

1) It will rain for 40% of the day.
2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point.

I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2)
are completely different meanings.


It means there is a 40% chance that it will rain in the area to which
the forecast applies and during the period (often a day) specified.

It never means (1) and does not depend on the forecaster and is not a
matter of belief. Nor, happily, does it depend on google.


So it's utterly useless then? 40% chance of rain could mean there's a
40% chance I'll get a light shower for half an hour at some point, or
it could mean there's a 40% chance it will bucket down all day. They
should estimate the AMOUNT of rain that is going to fall, eg so many mm.


No, not useless. Some forecast services offer the probability for each
hour of the day which is more than sufficient.
It has happened on occasion that I have looked out of my front window
and it has been raining while out of the rear window it has been sunny
and dry. There is no way for a forecast to be that precise and 50%
chance of rain would be a perfect forecast for that.
Unless it is an unusual event, there is no way to predict the amount of
rain which will fall on any given occasion. That is why they don't do
it.

If the risk of rain is say 90% then a forecaster may well say it 'will'
rain but with a island weather, it is seldom so easy.

All forecasts are verbalised accounts of probabilities (or risks) of
events happening and that is all there is. The science does not exist,
and probably never will, to accurately predict wat are virtually random
events.


--
Asha
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Old 20-07-2017, 05:08 PM posted to uk.d-i-y,uk.rec.gardening
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"James Wilkinson Sword" wrote in message
news
What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance of
rain"?

1) It will rain for 40% of the day.
2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point.

I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are
completely different meanings.


Given that it includes the word "chance" (ie probability) I'd interpret it
as the second meaning: if (hypothetically) you replayed the day many times
(Groundhog Day!) then approx 40% of the occurrences of the day would have
some rain.

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Old 20-07-2017, 06:32 PM posted to uk.rec.gardening
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Default CAUTION! The Pathological Attention Whore Strikes, AGAIN! BG

On 2017-07-20 13:48:07 +0000, The Peeler said:

nothing of note

Indeed you have struck again. welcome to my killfile.

plonk er

--
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Old 20-07-2017, 09:29 PM posted to uk.d-i-y,uk.rec.gardening
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On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:13:43 +0100, James Wilkinson Sword wrote:

What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance of rain"?

1) It will rain for 40% of the day.
2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point.

I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are completely different meanings.


Unless there is high pressure stuck over us you can go to 7 UK forecast
sites and get seven different percentages or timings. They all claim to get
their information from the Met Office. I don't believe that all seven have
in-house meteorologists so who makes it up?
--
Jim S
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