On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:27:17 +0100, Jethro_uk wrote:

On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:13:43 +0100, James Wilkinson Sword wrote:

What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance
of rain"?

1) It will rain for 40% of the day.
2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point.

I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are
completely different meanings.

I've taken it to mean that the chance of rain within the forecast area is
40%, which is subtly different.

In the last month, the Met Office has issued 3 48 hours weather warnings
for rain for my area. However, the chance of rain each time never
exceeded 5%.

I cynically suspect that whatever methodology is being used, it allows a
retrospective "we got it right" approach.

I suspect that also.

--
Change is inevitable, except from a vending machine.