http://www.users.globalnet.co.uk/~sykesm
"J C-W" wrote in message
news
big snip
this thread tells us is that for all the technology and super computer
models being used, the predictions are fundamentally flawed because they
rely on basic physical principles and ignore chaos theory, quantum
mechanics

As I understand modern weather prediction, they acknowledge the existence of
chaos. Chaos does not violate the laws of physics but simply acknowledges
that even simple laws can give rise to complex behaviour which can be
massively influenced by minute variations in the initial state.

To get over this they run millions of simulations with small variations in
the input state. For some states, all simulations run very closely but for
others they diverge quickly. They then use all the simulations to give
statistics like '70% probability of rain' which really means that in 70% of
the simulations it rained and in the other 30% the simulation took a
different course and it remained dry.
--
Martin & Anna Sykes