Sue,
I don't disagree with you that the West Nile virus CAN be deadly. That is
something I did not, and will not, deny. However, according to your CDC (an
American institution, not Canadian), in 2002, there were only a little over
4000 cases of it, and fewer than 300 deaths. And the CDC estimated that the
risk of dying from West Nile is slightly less than that for the flu (less
than 1 in a thousand). In contrast, 10% to 20% of any given population of
human beings will get the flu in any given flu season. In the US that is,
what, something of the order of 40,000,000 people? And of these, there
would likely be something a little over 100,000 deaths in a typical year.
Alas, I don't have the stats for 2003, but I wouldn't expect them to be too
different. With the case of ebola, there have been only about 1400 cases
since it was first reported, almost all of whom died. Given the stats,
unless you're one of the unlucky few who get a serious case of one of these
diseases, about the only time I'd start to worry is if a new virus appeared
that was as deadly as ebola and as contagious as the flu.
I am not surprised that the one person you write about came close to dying
because the doctor didn't believe she had it. It is to be expected that,
with so few cases nationally, that few doctors get first hand experience
with it and consequently misdiagnose it. And as alays, misdiagnosis can be
deadly.
As an ecologist, with some experience and expertise in risk assessment, I do
not believe wide spread spraying for mosquitos in rural areas is warranted,
although some farmers with significant amounts of livestock may well
disagree.
Cheers,
Ted
"Susan Erickson" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 4 Feb 2004 11:13:45 -0500, "Ted Byers"
wrote:
Frank,
Anyway, this isn't the forum for a detailed treatment of risk analysis
and
public health. I just wrote what I did to enable you to effectively deal
with your fears as they impinge on how you deal with your orchids.
Cheers,
Ted
I have to both agree and disagree with you Ted.
I am from Colorado. We were hit the HARDEST of any place with
the West Nile this last year. It kills birds, horses, and
humans. It mimics the flu but is not an easy recovery. It will
be 6-8 months for someone that had a serious case. The saving
grace is mosquitoes are easy to avoid.... stay inside, wear long
sleeves, wear deet, change bird bath water, make sure toys and
pots standing around are not collecting water. It takes 3 days
for the water cycle.
Yes, I know several people who had West Nile. A couple that came
close to dying. One of those was because she went to Washington
state to visit and the Dr. would not believe she had West Nile.
They say that either this year or next our birds will start
showing a natural immunity to it and they will survive to eat the
mosquitoes. So the question is do we have to get thru another
bad year? Some of the worst was along the river where there are
backwater ponds that fill during wet cycles, spring thaw or heavy
rain. Because these areas are mostly pasture, they were not
sprayed as early in the season as they should have been. All
standing water ponds need the floats for mosquito control.
SuE
http://orchids.legolas.org/gallery/albums.php