30-10-2002, 09:54 AM
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Muntjack Deer
In article ,
(DaveDay34) writes:
| The current situation is that we are likely to cause an effect on
| the ecosystem comparable with the major 'events', such as the one
| associated with the extinction of the dinosaurs. I.e. a 95%
| REDUCTION in the number of species over a short period.
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| Are you suggesting that 95% of all species (presumably animal species) in the
| world will become extinct in the next 200 years? That seems a little excessive
| and alarmist. I'd hate to see anything like that happen, but from what I see
| of the facts/figures, those sorts of numbers of species going the way of the
| Dodo just don't add up. I think this might just be one (relatively
| pessimistic/alarmist) view amongst many.
That is one prediction. Yes, it is alarmist - but is it right?
There is a hell of a lot of evidence that it may be. And it is
not just talking about animal species, but plant species, too.
The problem with a lot of such things is that the populations
hold up until a certain point, and then collapse almost totally.
You therefore see relatively little effect until shortly before
the disaster happens - this is precisely what scientists are
afraid of with the North Sea cod stocks, and have seen in other
such populations.
The reason that the figures are so high is that a few ecologies
both account for a disproportionate number of species and rely
on very complex interactions. Tropical rain forests are the
classic examples, but I believe that coral reefs are similar.
If a collapse occurs, the ECOLOGY collapses, leading to the
exinction of all species dependent on it.
In the UK, a more reasonable figure would be 80-90%.
Regards,
Nick Maclaren,
University of Cambridge Computing Service,
New Museums Site, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QH, England.
Email:
Tel.: +44 1223 334761 Fax: +44 1223 334679
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