Background
Met Office winter forecasting methods are based primarily on the influence
of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures on the European winter climate.
Seasonal trends usually affect quite large geographic areas, so the forecast
for the UK is cast in the broader picture for Europe as a whole.
A statistical method and a number of global forecasting models are used to
provide information on the outlook for Winter 2006/7.
El Niņo conditions - which have widespread weather impacts across the
globe - are now becoming established in the Pacific Ocean. There is evidence
that El Niņo has an effect on European winter climate and this will continue
to be monitored.
Forecast for Winter 2006/7
Temperature
Over much of the European region, the situation is now finely balanced with
approximately even chance that the winter will be colder or warmer than
average.
For the UK, temperatures near the 1971-2000 average are slightly favoured
for the winter season as a whole. However, later in the winter season, there
is a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an increase in
the frequency of cold snaps.
Note that even an average winter is likely to include some notable cold
snaps and snowfalls.
Precipitation
For this winter, wetter-than-average conditions are favoured over central
and southern Europe, although for the UK, there is approximately even chance
of a wetter-or drier-than-average winter.
Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across northern Europe
and all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast had suggested. In
the south-east of England this was the continuation of a long period of dry
weather starting in November 2004, continuing through to the summer of 2006.
More about the forecast for Europe
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._7/europe.html
More about the forecast for UK
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...2006_7/uk.html
Forecast uncertainties
The current forecast has moved away from our early signal for a mild winter,
and there are signs that the trend towards a colder winter outlook may
continue as emerging signals become established. Further developments in the
situation are therefore expected, as evolution of ocean temperatures in the
North Atlantic takes place.
Updates and reviews of the forecast
It is expected that updates to the forecast will be issued at the beginning
of November (10 a.m. on 1 November), early December and January. A monthly
appraisal of the winter will start in early January 2007. Winter, in this
context, is defined as the months of Dec, Jan and Feb, although it is
recognised that winter weather can extend beyond this period, especially in
northern Britain