Rupert (W.Yorkshire) wrote:
"Mike" wrote in message
...
"Rupert (W.Yorkshire)" wrote in message
...
Background

Met Office winter forecasting methods are based primarily on the
influence of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures on the European winter
climate. Seasonal trends usually affect quite large geographic areas, so
the forecast for the UK is cast in the broader picture for Europe as a
whole.

A statistical method and a number of global forecasting models are used
to provide information on the outlook for Winter 2006/7.

El Niño conditions - which have widespread weather impacts across the
globe - are now becoming established in the Pacific Ocean. There is
evidence that El Niño has an effect on European winter climate and this
will continue to be monitored.

Forecast for Winter 2006/7

Temperature

Over much of the European region, the situation is now finely balanced
with approximately even chance that the winter will be colder or warmer
than average.

For the UK, temperatures near the 1971-2000 average are slightly favoured
for the winter season as a whole. However, later in the winter season,
there is a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an
increase in the frequency of cold snaps.

Note that even an average winter is likely to include some notable cold
snaps and snowfalls.

Precipitation

For this winter, wetter-than-average conditions are favoured over central
and southern Europe, although for the UK, there is approximately even
chance of a wetter-or drier-than-average winter.

Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across northern Europe
and all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast had suggested.
In the south-east of England this was the continuation of a long period
of dry weather starting in November 2004, continuing through to the
summer of 2006.

More about the forecast for Europe
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._7/europe.html

More about the forecast for UK
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...2006_7/uk.html

Forecast uncertainties

The current forecast has moved away from our early signal for a mild
winter, and there are signs that the trend towards a colder winter
outlook may continue as emerging signals become established. Further
developments in the situation are therefore expected, as evolution of
ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic takes place.

Updates and reviews of the forecast

It is expected that updates to the forecast will be issued at the
beginning of November (10 a.m. on 1 November), early December and
January. A monthly appraisal of the winter will start in early January
2007. Winter, in this context, is defined as the months of Dec, Jan and
Feb, although it is recognised that winter weather can extend beyond this
period, especially in northern Britain

In other words, 'We don't know. Your best bet is to look out of the window
for an up to date report in your area' !!!!

Good for a laugh though :-))

Mike
In the Sunny and Cloudy with no rain but looks as if it might Isle of
Wight
Ask me tomorrow for a more accurate report on today's weather
The actual post was stolen from UKOasis forum --there are a few humorous
replies
http://www.ukoasis.co.uk/viewtopic.p...b44fd a42e5c4


this is the most accurate weather forecast I have heard from the Met Office:
It may rain at times in places.