In message , Granity
writes
'Mike';782900 Wrote:
"Dave Hill" wrote in
One shouldn't draw conclusions on the occurrence of an April snowfall
this year (they used to be more common) any more than one should draw
conclusions from April last year shattering the CET temperature
records.
One would be more justified in drawing conclusions from the frequency
of
April snowfalls, but even then it is wiser to take all the evidence
into
account, rather than a single surrogate.
One shouldn't confuse weather with climate.
--
Martin
But...........in the UK we dont have climate just weather.
I remember when I was young the strange weather was blamed on the
Atom
bomb, then neucular tests, then the rockets punching holes in the
ozone layer.
David Hill
Abacus Nurseries
I forgot about those "Excuses"! I wonder what it will be when "Global
Warming" has died its death!!
Mike
.
It is generally accepted that in the Roman period it was warmer in
Britain than it is now, then we had the Mediaeval warming period circa
1100 AD. Why would we not expect to have a naturally occurring warming
period now?
We did. It is responsible for about one third of the global temperature
rise over the last 50 years. (There's a weak consensus that in the
absence of anthropogenic forcings we would now be in a natural cooling
trend.)
The relevant issue is not whether it was warmer in Britain during the
Roman period or the Mediaeval Climate Optimum, but whether it was warmer
worldwide. It's generally accepted among climatologists that it was not.
I'd also suspect that the general acceptance of it being warmer in
Britain in those historical periods has been overtaken by the warming
trend of the last 50 years. However, regardless of whether it has been
conclusively shown that the current trend has exceeded the historical
natural variability, the problem is not so much the past rise - we can
live with that - but the future rise. Because of timelags in the system
- for example it takes time for the oceans to warm up in response to the
increased greenhouse effect - there is a fair bit of warming in the
pipeline even if greenhouse gases were immediately stabilised. But
greenhouse gas emissions are continuing apace, which means that even
more warming can be expected.
--
Stewart Robert Hinsley