Thread: British Winters
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Old 07-02-2011, 12:26 PM
echinosum echinosum is offline
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First recorded activity by GardenBanter: Feb 2006
Location: Chalfont St Giles
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Oh dear, Sir Patrick, you are past your sell-by date and have been conned by some climate denialist propaganda, which is very cleverly written.

The thermal variation due to solar radiation variations over the sunspot cycle is only worth about 0.1C, so saying cold winters are due to sunspots is ridiculous - the effect is small in comparison to the CO2 effect. And why should thermal variations from a solar radiation variation have a different specific, identifiable effect different from other, larger thermal variations? We are actually now past the solar minimum, so if he is right, why should cold winters continue?

Actually the recent cold spell in Britain seems to have been due to the arctic being unusually warm in the Autumn. Normally the Arctic gets high pressure over it in the winter, which keeps the cold in. But there has been unusual low pressure over the arctic this winter, which seems to have arisen because of the unusually low ice cover in the arctic in the autumn. This low pressure is allowing the cold to spill out, like leaving the fridge door open. In December, it spilled out over NW Europe. At the moment, it is spilling out over the NE USA. Meanwhile may northerly parts have been having an unusually mild winter, like last year when Vancouver didn't have enough snow for the winter olympics.

The above is part of the more respectable reasons for thinking there might be more cold winters for NW Europe in coming years. I have seen such predictions, but coming from more reliable climate modelling sources, and suggesting the effect would last till about mid-decade. But regional climatic effects are terribly hard to model, so I would not rely even on such a prediction, just take it into account.