Quote:
Originally Posted by kay
Not quite true. You collect info on past events, use it to find a model that fits, then use the model to assess the probability of future events. So if your model is based on a data set which includes several "once in 10 year" events, you may well be able to predict the size of a "once in a hundred years" event.
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Models for chaotic systems are not very accurate I'm afraid, after all the Met office use a 80million pound super-computer to run their models and in March it predicted that April, May and June would be warmer and much drier than normal.
Looking at the Jet-stream predictions for the coming week
Jetstream Forecast - Jetstream Map Updated Four Times Daily - Netweather.tv it would appear to hold out little hope for a change from wet and unsettled weather.
What we need is for everyone in the South of France and in Spain to face north and blow like mad to send the jet-stream back up to the North of Scotland where it should be at this time of year :-))