"Martin" wrote in message
...
On Sun, 8 Jul 2012 16:26:01 +0100, "Ophelia"
wrote:



"Granity" wrote in message
...

kay;963812 Wrote:
Not quite true. You collect info on past events, use it to find a model
that fits, then use the model to assess the probability of future
events. So if your model is based on a data set which includes several
"once in 10 year" events, you may well be able to predict the size of a
"once in a hundred years" event.

Models for chaotic systems are not very accurate I'm afraid, after all
the Met office use a 80million pound super-computer to run their models
and in March it predicted that April, May and June would be warmer and
much drier than normal.

Looking at the Jet-stream predictions for the coming week 'Jetstream
Forecast - Jetstream Map Updated Four Times Daily - Netweather.tv'
(http://tinyurl.com/cuz46cs) it would appear to hold out little hope
for a change from wet and unsettled weather.

What we need is for everyone in the South of France and in Spain to face
north and blow like mad to send the jet-stream back up to the North of
Scotland where it should be at this time of year :-))

g That would be a sight to behold!

It seems to be working. It's gone from being humid and hot to cold and
windy. There's a strong smell of garlic in the air too, but that could
be this years crop drying.

Bring plenty with you, I just read the the EU are going to charge us a
garlic tax!

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