On Thu, 7 Nov 2002 16:38:18 -0600, "Gordon Couger"
wrote:


"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message
.. .
On Thu, 7 Nov 2002 03:48:45 -0600, "Gordon Couger"
wrote:

Torsten,

Has a trend devolved yet that would indicate that a peak is nearing ..

You are making reference to some thought imagine of a 'normal'
epidemic curve, I think, more or less bell-shaped with a tail. I don't
think our knowledge of the disease gives us basis for assuming such a
model.

Anyhow, if it is assumed, there is no clear indication in data where
we are in this assumed progressive development in relation to a peak.
Said otherwise, one can find support in data for us being as well
past, on, or nearing a peak. Past-peakers might note the decreasing
trend in vCJD deaths since about autumn 2000; on-peakers and
nearing-peakers, that the current incidence does not stand out
as particularly high or particularly low compared to the incidence
the previous 3-4 years.

It wouldn't be bell shaped. I am exactly sure what the curve of an emerging
diseases looks like it would be different for each one snip

Yes,exactly and the shape is not known a priori unless one has a
reasoned model -- which in this case we most certainly do not have.

As you probably know, some think it is caused by the chronic effect of
exposure to toxic proteins from BSE affected cows. Quite a bit like
that Minamata disease in Japan caused by exposure to methylmercury,
just slower. But that can't be right, since the US EPA has determined
in connection with their approvals of genetically modified crops, that
when proteins are toxic they act by acute toxicity mechanisms and in
very small doses.

If there were to be toxic protein in the brains of BSE cows,
there should be at least sproadic reports of acute cases of dementia
in humans caused by the sunday dinner, and there should be huge
masses of supporting animal evidence for the acute toxic effects of
BSE brain muck. But quite on the contrary, there is a vast body of
evidence proving beyond any doubt, that experimental animals tolerate
large acute doses of BSE muck with no ill effect. IOW, we do not have
a clue what vCJD is caused by, and to be worse very many people think
it is caused by something that the EPA has determined that it cannot
be caused by.