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Old 12-11-2007, 09:49 PM posted to rec.ponds.moderated
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Default Misconceptions of Gloabal warming

This is in response to a previos post
Myths / Facts
COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING

MYTH 1: Global temperatures are rising at a rapid, unprecedented rate.

FACT: Accurate satellite, balloon and mountain top observations made over
the last three decades have not shown any significant change in the long
term rate of increase in global temperatures. Average ground station
readings do show a mild warming of 0.6 to 0.8C over the last 100 years,
which is well within the natural variations recorded in the last millennium.
The ground station network suffers from an uneven distribution across the
globe; the stations are preferentially located in growing urban and
industrial areas ("heat islands"), which show substantially higher readings
than adjacent rural areas ("land use effects").

There has been no catastrophic warming recorded.



MYTH 2: The "hockey stick" graph proves that the earth has experienced a
steady, very gradual temperature decrease for 1000 years, then recently
began a sudden increase.

FACT: Significant changes in climate have continually occurred throughout
geologic time. For instance, the Medieval Warm Period, from around 1000
to1200 AD (when the Vikings farmed on Greenland) was followed by a period
known as the Little Ice Age. Since the end of the 17th Century the "average
global temperature" has been rising at the low steady rate mentioned above;
although from 1940 - 1970 temperatures actually dropped, leading to a Global
Cooling scare.

The "hockey stick", a poster boy of both the UN's IPCC and Canada's
Environment Department, ignores historical recorded climatic swings, and has
now also been proven to be flawed and statistically unreliable as well. It
is a computer construct and a faulty one at that.



MYTH 3: Human produced carbon dioxide has increased over the last 100
years, adding to the Greenhouse effect, thus warming the earth.

FACT: Carbon dioxide levels have indeed changed for various reasons, human
and otherwise, just as they have throughout geologic time. Since the
beginning of the industrial revolution, the CO2 content of the atmosphere
has increased. The RATE of growth during this period has also increased from
about 0.2% per year to the present rate of about 0.4% per year,which growth
rate has now been constant for the past 25 years. However, there is no proof
that CO2 is the main driver of global warming. As measured in ice cores
dated over many thousands of years, CO2 levels move up and down AFTER the
temperature has done so, and thus are the RESULT OF, NOT THE CAUSE of
warming. Geological field work in recent sediments confirms this causal
relationship. There is solid evidence that, as temperatures move up and down
naturally and cyclically through solar radiation, orbital and galactic
influences, the warming surface layers of the earth's oceans expel more CO2
as a result.

MYTH 4: CO2 is the most common greenhouse gas.

FACT: Greenhouse gases form about 3 % of the atmosphere by volume. They
consist of varying amounts, (about 97%) of water vapour and clouds, with the
remainder being gases like CO2, CH4, Ozone and N2O, of which carbon dioxide
is the largest amount. Hence, CO2 constitutes about 0.037% of the
atmosphere. While the minor gases are more effective as "greenhouse agents"
than water vapour and clouds, the latter are overwhelming the effect by
their sheer volume and - in the end - are thought to be responsible for 60%
of the "Greenhouse effect".
Those attributing climate change to CO2 rarely mention this important fact.

MYTH 5: Computer models verify that CO2 increases will cause significant
global warming.

FACT: The computer models assume that CO2 is the primary climate driver,
and that the Sun has an insignificant effect on climate. You cannot use the
output of a model to verify or prove its initial assumption - that is
circular reasoning and is illogical. Computer models can be made to roughly
match the 20th century temperature rise by adjusting many input parameters
and using strong positive feedbacks. They do not "prove" anything. Also,
computer models predicting global warming are incapable of properly
including the effects of the sun, cosmic rays and the clouds. The sun is a
major cause of temperature variation on the earth surface as its received
radiation changes all the time, This happens largely in cyclical fashion.
The number and the lengths in time of sunspots can be correlated very
closely with average temperatures on earth, e.g. the Little Ice Age and the
Medieval Warm Period. Varying intensity of solar heat radiation affects the
surface temperature of the oceans and the currents. Warmer ocean water
expels gases, some of which are CO2. Solar radiation interferes with the
cosmic ray flux, thus influencing the amount ionized nuclei which control
cloud cover.


MYTH 6: The UN proved that man-made CO2 causes global warming.
FACT: In a 1996 report by the UN on global warming, two statements were
deleted from the final draft. Here they a
1) "None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can
attribute the observed climate changes to increases in greenhouse gases."
2) "No study to date has positively attributed all or part of the
climate change to man-made causes"

To the present day there is still no scientific proof that man-made CO2
causes significant global warming.


MYTH 7: CO2 is a pollutant.

FACT: This is absolutely not true. Nitrogen forms 80% of our atmosphere. We
could not live in 100% nitrogen either. Carbon dioxide is no more a
pollutant than nitrogen is. CO2 is essential to life on earth. It is
necessary for plant growth since increased CO2 intake as a result of
increased atmospheric concentration causes many trees and other plants to
grow more vigorously. Unfortunately, the Canadian Government has included
CO2 with a number of truly toxic and noxious substances listed by the
Environmental Protection Act, only as their means to politically control it.

MYTH 8: Global warming will cause more storms and other weather extremes.

FACT: There is no scientific or statistical evidence whatsoever that
supports such claims on a global scale. Regional variations may occur.
Growing insurance and infrastructure repair costs, particularly in coastal
areas, are sometimes claimed to be the result of increasing frequency and
severity of storms, whereas in reality they are a function of increasing
population density, escalating development value, and ever more media
reporting.


MYTH 9: Receding glaciers and the calving of ice shelves are proof of
global warming.

FACT: Glaciers have been receding and growing cyclically for hundreds of
years. Recent glacier melting is a consequence of coming out of the very
cool period of the Little Ice Age. Ice shelves have been breaking off for
centuries. Scientists know of at least 33 periods of glaciers growing and
then retreating. It's normal. Besides, glacier's health is dependent as much
on precipitation as on temperature.

MYTH 10: The earth's poles are warming; polar ice caps are breaking up and
melting and the sea level rising.

FACT: The earth is variable. The western Arctic may be getting somewhat
warmer, due to unrelated cyclic events in the Pacific Ocean, but the Eastern
Arctic and Greenland are getting colder. The small Palmer Peninsula of
Antarctica is getting warmer, while the main Antarctic continent is actually
cooling. Ice thicknesses are increasing both on Greenland and in Antarctica.

Sea level monitoring in the Pacific (Tuvalu) and Indian Oceans (Maldives)
has shown no sign of any sea level rise.

 
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