wrote in message
...
Anybody following long period events in determining if/when it will blow?
Where is
Bernard Chouet these days? Ingrid

When it will blow? It has already blown, several times, in fact. If you are
asking if it will blow in a large eruption, then all I can tell you is my own
opinion. In my professional opinion, I doubt that we will see any large
eruption from the current dome-building activity. Having said that, volcanos
like to make liars out of geologists. So the answer is that nobody really knows
at this time, but from current data, a large eruption is unlikely.

"George" wrote:
I'm a geologist, and have been monitoring the volcano remotely (i.e., online)
since the first rumble started in September. This eruption and the Parkfield
earthquake in california lasty month have kept us all very busy and drooling
over the mountain of data these events have produced. Needless to say, the
current eruption will go down as the most closely watched, and the most
thoroughly studied volcanic event ever in the continental U.S. It has
confirmed
many ideas on how these eruptions occur while startling us by showing clearly
how much more there is to discover.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
List Manager: Puregold Goldfish List
http://puregold.aquaria.net/
www.drsolo.com
Solve the problem, dont waste energy finding who's to blame
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Unfortunately, I receive no money, gifts, discounts or other
compensation for all the damn work I do, nor for any of the
endorsements or recommendations I make.

"Derek Broughton" wrote in message
...
George wrote:

I'm a geologist, and have been monitoring the volcano remotely (i.e.,
online)
since the first rumble started in September. This eruption and the
Parkfield earthquake in california lasty month have kept us all very busy
and drooling
over the mountain of data these events have produced. Needless to say,
the current eruption will go down as the most closely watched, and the
most
thoroughly studied volcanic event ever in the continental U.S.

Hey George - just because it _is_ in the continental US, I suspected it
would probably be the most thoroughly monitored volcano anywhere, ever.
Not so?
--
derek

No. That honor would go to Kilauea.

"Derek Broughton" wrote in message
...
George wrote:

I'm a geologist, and have been monitoring the volcano remotely (i.e.,
online)
since the first rumble started in September. This eruption and the
Parkfield earthquake in california lasty month have kept us all very busy
and drooling
over the mountain of data these events have produced. Needless to say,
the current eruption will go down as the most closely watched, and the
most
thoroughly studied volcanic event ever in the continental U.S.

Hey George - just because it _is_ in the continental US, I suspected it
would probably be the most thoroughly monitored volcano anywhere, ever.
Not so?
--
derek

No. That honor would go to Kilauea.

"Lt. Kizhe Catson" wrote in message
om...
Derek Broughton wrote in message
...
George wrote:

I'm a geologist, and have been monitoring the volcano remotely (i.e.,
online)
since the first rumble started in September. This eruption and the
Parkfield earthquake in california lasty month have kept us all very busy
and drooling
over the mountain of data these events have produced. Needless to say,
the current eruption will go down as the most closely watched, and the
most
thoroughly studied volcanic event ever in the continental U.S.

Hey George - just because it _is_ in the continental US, I suspected it
would probably be the most thoroughly monitored volcano anywhere, ever.
Not so?

Hmmm....seems to me people have been watching Kilauea [sp?] pretty
closely for several decades.

-- Kizhe

Exactly.

"Lt. Kizhe Catson" wrote in message
om...
Derek Broughton wrote in message
...
George wrote:

I'm a geologist, and have been monitoring the volcano remotely (i.e.,
online)
since the first rumble started in September. This eruption and the
Parkfield earthquake in california lasty month have kept us all very busy
and drooling
over the mountain of data these events have produced. Needless to say,
the current eruption will go down as the most closely watched, and the
most
thoroughly studied volcanic event ever in the continental U.S.

Hey George - just because it _is_ in the continental US, I suspected it
would probably be the most thoroughly monitored volcano anywhere, ever.
Not so?

Hmmm....seems to me people have been watching Kilauea [sp?] pretty
closely for several decades.

-- Kizhe

Exactly.

"Ka30P" wrote in message
...
Wow, George, thanks for all the links!

The always in the back of the mind question here is Mt. Rainer and will it go
the way Mt. St. Helens goes? The area below it being much more populated..
From
where I live there are two ways easiest to take to get over the mts. and head
to Seattle. One curves right around Mt. Rainer and can be a spectacular drive.
I've stopped driving that route... ;-)



kathy :-)
zone 7, SE WA state

Sorry, Kathy, in zone 7, don't make any large real estate investments in the
vicinity of Mt. Rainier. Mt. Rainier is not dormant, as some people would like
to believe.

Mount Rainier is an active volcano that first erupted about half a million years
ago. Because of Rainier's great height (14,410 feet above sea level) and
northerly location, glaciers have cut deeply into its lavas, making it appear
deceptively older than it actually is. Mount Rainier is known to have erupted as
recently as in the 1840s, and large eruptions took place as recently as about
1,000 and 2,300 years ago. Mount Rainier and other similar volcanoes in the
Cascade Range, such as Mount Adams and Mount Baker, erupt much less frequently
than the more familiar Hawaiian volcanoes, but their eruptions are vastly more
destructive. Hot lava and rock debris from Rainier's eruptions have melted snow
and glacier ice and triggered debris flows (mudflows) - with a consistency of
churning wet concrete - that have swept down all of the river valleys that head
on the volcano. Debris flows have also formed by collapse of unstable parts of
the volcano without accompanying eruptions. Some debris flows have traveled as
far as the present margin of Puget Sound, and much of the lowland to the east of
Tacoma and the south of Seattle is formed of pre-historic debris from Mount
Rainier -- Sisson, 1995

Mount Rainier, highest (4,392 meters - 14,410 feet) and third-most voluminous
volcano in the Cascades after Mounts Shasta and Adams, dominates the
Seattle-Tacoma area, where more than 1.5 million know it fondly as The Mountain.
The Mountain is, however, the most dangerous volcano in the range, owing to the
large population and to the huge area and volume of ice and snow on its flanks
that could theoretically melt to generate debris flows during cataclysmic
eruptions. -- Swanson, et.al., 1989

To answer you question as to whether Rainier will go the way of Mt St Helens - I
usually tell people that in the short run, there could be minor eruptions that
could heat up the mountain, causing the glaciers to melt (an event that in and
of itself would be catastrophic for the region). In the long run, it is much
more likely to have an eruption like that of Mt. Pinatubo, in the Phillipines,
which didn't blow up the top 1,000 feet of it's mountain. Mt. Pinatubo blew up
it's entire mountain. The eruption was ten times the size of the 1980 Mt. St.
Helens eruption. I can see that happening at Mt. Rainier, but if you want to
know when this will occur, you'll have to ask God, because it's his timetable.

"Ka30P" wrote in message
...
Wow, George, thanks for all the links!

The always in the back of the mind question here is Mt. Rainer and will it go
the way Mt. St. Helens goes? The area below it being much more populated..
From
where I live there are two ways easiest to take to get over the mts. and head
to Seattle. One curves right around Mt. Rainer and can be a spectacular drive.
I've stopped driving that route... ;-)



kathy :-)
zone 7, SE WA state

Sorry, Kathy, in zone 7, don't make any large real estate investments in the
vicinity of Mt. Rainier. Mt. Rainier is not dormant, as some people would like
to believe.

Mount Rainier is an active volcano that first erupted about half a million years
ago. Because of Rainier's great height (14,410 feet above sea level) and
northerly location, glaciers have cut deeply into its lavas, making it appear
deceptively older than it actually is. Mount Rainier is known to have erupted as
recently as in the 1840s, and large eruptions took place as recently as about
1,000 and 2,300 years ago. Mount Rainier and other similar volcanoes in the
Cascade Range, such as Mount Adams and Mount Baker, erupt much less frequently
than the more familiar Hawaiian volcanoes, but their eruptions are vastly more
destructive. Hot lava and rock debris from Rainier's eruptions have melted snow
and glacier ice and triggered debris flows (mudflows) - with a consistency of
churning wet concrete - that have swept down all of the river valleys that head
on the volcano. Debris flows have also formed by collapse of unstable parts of
the volcano without accompanying eruptions. Some debris flows have traveled as
far as the present margin of Puget Sound, and much of the lowland to the east of
Tacoma and the south of Seattle is formed of pre-historic debris from Mount
Rainier -- Sisson, 1995

Mount Rainier, highest (4,392 meters - 14,410 feet) and third-most voluminous
volcano in the Cascades after Mounts Shasta and Adams, dominates the
Seattle-Tacoma area, where more than 1.5 million know it fondly as The Mountain.
The Mountain is, however, the most dangerous volcano in the range, owing to the
large population and to the huge area and volume of ice and snow on its flanks
that could theoretically melt to generate debris flows during cataclysmic
eruptions. -- Swanson, et.al., 1989

To answer you question as to whether Rainier will go the way of Mt St Helens - I
usually tell people that in the short run, there could be minor eruptions that
could heat up the mountain, causing the glaciers to melt (an event that in and
of itself would be catastrophic for the region). In the long run, it is much
more likely to have an eruption like that of Mt. Pinatubo, in the Phillipines,
which didn't blow up the top 1,000 feet of it's mountain. Mt. Pinatubo blew up
it's entire mountain. The eruption was ten times the size of the 1980 Mt. St.
Helens eruption. I can see that happening at Mt. Rainier, but if you want to
know when this will occur, you'll have to ask God, because it's his timetable.

"Lt. Kizhe Catson" wrote in message
om...
"George" wrote in message
. ..
"Ka30P" wrote in message
...
All right, all you people in the SE, with all your hurricanes - we, in the
PNW,
are pleased to announce one of our many volcanoes, Mt. St. Helen's, is now
producing lava!
http://tinyurl.com/43yn3
You can see the volcano here ~
http://www.fs.fed.us/gpnf/volcanocams/msh/

kathy - who remembers Spirit Lake before it became
a mud pond.

I'm a geologist, and have been monitoring the volcano remotely (i.e., online)
since the first rumble started in September. This eruption and the Parkfield
earthquake in california lasty month have kept us all very busy and drooling
over the mountain of data these events have produced. Needless to say, the
current eruption will go down as the most closely watched, and the most
thoroughly studied volcanic event ever in the continental U.S. It has
confirmed
many ideas on how these eruptions occur while startling us by showing clearly
how much more there is to discover. For those who like nice pictures in
deference to hard data, here are a few links to some fascinating high
resolution
images of the eruption:

http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/MSH/Images/MSH04/

The following image compares a visual image of the erupting lava with an
infrared view that shows the heat of the magma:

http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Imgs/Jpg/M...-13-04_med.jpg

For those who are interested in more technical aspects, here is a link to the
available near-real-time seismographs of the region:

http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/GREEN/welcome.html

To use this page, scroll down and locate a particular sesimograph station
(for
instance, Cedar Flats, at Mt. St. Helens) and click on the latest link for
the
latest seismograph of tremor activity at that station.

For those who want even more technical information, try the following link,
which will take you to the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, and lots of
information on Mt. St. Helens and other volcanoes in the region:

http://www.pnsn.org/welcome.html

Just for fun, take a look at this site if you want to see what really large
eruptions have done in the past compared to the 1980 Mt St Helens eruption:

http://volcano.und.nodak.edu/vwdocs/...esia/toba.html

And this last link gives plots of earthquake locations on Mt St Helens,
time-depth plots, and tremor magnitude over time.

http://www.geophys.washington.edu/SE...lensep_mo.html

I can answer most any questions you may have, so feel free to ask. Enjoy.

Thanks for all that. I visited MSH in March 1999; it was fascinating.
We drove up to what I guess is Coldwater Ridge Visitors Center to
have a look at the "nasty" side of the volcano -- what incredible
devastation, even 19 years later! So, I've been keeping an eye on that
site the last few weeks.

The scary part is that as big, and devastating as the 1980 eruption was, it
really was a rather weak eruption as explosive volcanic eruptions go. The
cascades are known for some mighty eruptions, that is certain. But the cascade
range doesn't claim what are considered to be potentially the most dangerous
volcanos in the country. Two other regions in the U.S. currently are vying for
the title of potentially the greatest volcanic threat - Long Valley Caldera, and
Yellowstone. Yellowstone, by far is potentially the most dangerous, in my
opinion. Interestingly, Yellowstone is only the current phase of volcanic
activity that started in Oregon some 20 million years ago, and migrated east
during that time. In the intervening time, some of the largest eruptions known
on the planet occurred in Idaho and Utah, several of which were at least as
large, if not larger than the three primary explosions that formed Yellowstone
caldera and surroundings. The last of the large caldera-forming eruptions
occurred 640,000 years ago. Caldera-forming eruptions have occurred there on
average every 600,000 years, so a large eruption at Yellowstone is 40,000 years
overdue. But Yellowstone is way overdue for even relatively more moderate
eruptions (say on the order of Mt. St. Helens or even Pinatubo). Having said
that, there are currently no indications that moderate to large eruptions are
imminent or even possible in the near term. But given the fact that it is one
of the most destructive volcanos on the planet, it certainly bears close
monitoring.

The following day we went around the south side and explored about 30
minutes into the lower section of Ape Cave. We would have gone
farther, but we had kids with us, who'd already walked a good ways
uphill through deep snow to get there -- the road was only plowed to
the previous gate. Definitely worth it, though! Some day DW and I are
going back and do the whole Cave, top to bottom (assuming the mountain
doesn't blow sky-high and wreck the place, or something).

-- Kizhe

Take some pictures when you do, and post them here for all to see. I'd love to
make that trip some day.

"Lt. Kizhe Catson" wrote in message
om...
"George" wrote in message
. ..
"Ka30P" wrote in message
...
All right, all you people in the SE, with all your hurricanes - we, in the
PNW,
are pleased to announce one of our many volcanoes, Mt. St. Helen's, is now
producing lava!
http://tinyurl.com/43yn3
You can see the volcano here ~
http://www.fs.fed.us/gpnf/volcanocams/msh/

kathy - who remembers Spirit Lake before it became
a mud pond.

I'm a geologist, and have been monitoring the volcano remotely (i.e., online)
since the first rumble started in September. This eruption and the Parkfield
earthquake in california lasty month have kept us all very busy and drooling
over the mountain of data these events have produced. Needless to say, the
current eruption will go down as the most closely watched, and the most
thoroughly studied volcanic event ever in the continental U.S. It has
confirmed
many ideas on how these eruptions occur while startling us by showing clearly
how much more there is to discover. For those who like nice pictures in
deference to hard data, here are a few links to some fascinating high
resolution
images of the eruption:

http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/MSH/Images/MSH04/

The following image compares a visual image of the erupting lava with an
infrared view that shows the heat of the magma:

http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Imgs/Jpg/M...-13-04_med.jpg

For those who are interested in more technical aspects, here is a link to the
available near-real-time seismographs of the region:

http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/GREEN/welcome.html

To use this page, scroll down and locate a particular sesimograph station
(for
instance, Cedar Flats, at Mt. St. Helens) and click on the latest link for
the
latest seismograph of tremor activity at that station.

For those who want even more technical information, try the following link,
which will take you to the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, and lots of
information on Mt. St. Helens and other volcanoes in the region:

http://www.pnsn.org/welcome.html

Just for fun, take a look at this site if you want to see what really large
eruptions have done in the past compared to the 1980 Mt St Helens eruption:

http://volcano.und.nodak.edu/vwdocs/...esia/toba.html

And this last link gives plots of earthquake locations on Mt St Helens,
time-depth plots, and tremor magnitude over time.

http://www.geophys.washington.edu/SE...lensep_mo.html

I can answer most any questions you may have, so feel free to ask. Enjoy.

Thanks for all that. I visited MSH in March 1999; it was fascinating.
We drove up to what I guess is Coldwater Ridge Visitors Center to
have a look at the "nasty" side of the volcano -- what incredible
devastation, even 19 years later! So, I've been keeping an eye on that
site the last few weeks.

The scary part is that as big, and devastating as the 1980 eruption was, it
really was a rather weak eruption as explosive volcanic eruptions go. The
cascades are known for some mighty eruptions, that is certain. But the cascade
range doesn't claim what are considered to be potentially the most dangerous
volcanos in the country. Two other regions in the U.S. currently are vying for
the title of potentially the greatest volcanic threat - Long Valley Caldera, and
Yellowstone. Yellowstone, by far is potentially the most dangerous, in my
opinion. Interestingly, Yellowstone is only the current phase of volcanic
activity that started in Oregon some 20 million years ago, and migrated east
during that time. In the intervening time, some of the largest eruptions known
on the planet occurred in Idaho and Utah, several of which were at least as
large, if not larger than the three primary explosions that formed Yellowstone
caldera and surroundings. The last of the large caldera-forming eruptions
occurred 640,000 years ago. Caldera-forming eruptions have occurred there on
average every 600,000 years, so a large eruption at Yellowstone is 40,000 years
overdue. But Yellowstone is way overdue for even relatively more moderate
eruptions (say on the order of Mt. St. Helens or even Pinatubo). Having said
that, there are currently no indications that moderate to large eruptions are
imminent or even possible in the near term. But given the fact that it is one
of the most destructive volcanos on the planet, it certainly bears close
monitoring.

The following day we went around the south side and explored about 30
minutes into the lower section of Ape Cave. We would have gone
farther, but we had kids with us, who'd already walked a good ways
uphill through deep snow to get there -- the road was only plowed to
the previous gate. Definitely worth it, though! Some day DW and I are
going back and do the whole Cave, top to bottom (assuming the mountain
doesn't blow sky-high and wreck the place, or something).

-- Kizhe

Take some pictures when you do, and post them here for all to see. I'd love to
make that trip some day.

George wrote Sorry, Kathy, in zone 7, don't make any large real estate
investments in the
vicinity of Mt. Rainier.

It is one amazing mountain. Just over our hills here in SE WA you can see it on
a nice clear day. I remember being in Everett, 30+ miles north of Seattle, and
feeling earthquakes from Mt. St. Helens. I was on the phone to an aunt in
Seattle, she felt it and then stuff started rattling in my grandparent's
apartment.


kathy :-)
zone 7, SE WA state

George wrote Sorry, Kathy, in zone 7, don't make any large real estate
investments in the
vicinity of Mt. Rainier.

It is one amazing mountain. Just over our hills here in SE WA you can see it on
a nice clear day. I remember being in Everett, 30+ miles north of Seattle, and
feeling earthquakes from Mt. St. Helens. I was on the phone to an aunt in
Seattle, she felt it and then stuff started rattling in my grandparent's
apartment.


kathy :-)
zone 7, SE WA state

"Ka30P" wrote in message
...
George wrote Sorry, Kathy, in zone 7, don't make any large real estate
investments in the
vicinity of Mt. Rainier.

It is one amazing mountain. Just over our hills here in SE WA you can see it
on
a nice clear day. I remember being in Everett, 30+ miles north of Seattle, and
feeling earthquakes from Mt. St. Helens. I was on the phone to an aunt in
Seattle, she felt it and then stuff started rattling in my grandparent's
apartment.


kathy :-)
zone 7, SE WA state

We get earthquakes here in Kentucky from time to time. Thankfully, none of them
are related to volcanic events. Having said that, we have the New Madrid
Seismic zone, which when large earthquakes occur there, the entire eastern half
of the continent tends to ring like a bell. Everyone here is just keeping our
fingers crossed, because the midwest doesn't have the seismic building codes
that you guys have out west. So when the big one happens here, I think a lot of
people are going to be "frelled". There are 30 million people who live within
150-200 miles of New Madrid.

"Ka30P" wrote in message
...
George wrote Sorry, Kathy, in zone 7, don't make any large real estate
investments in the
vicinity of Mt. Rainier.

It is one amazing mountain. Just over our hills here in SE WA you can see it
on
a nice clear day. I remember being in Everett, 30+ miles north of Seattle, and
feeling earthquakes from Mt. St. Helens. I was on the phone to an aunt in
Seattle, she felt it and then stuff started rattling in my grandparent's
apartment.


kathy :-)
zone 7, SE WA state

We get earthquakes here in Kentucky from time to time. Thankfully, none of them
are related to volcanic events. Having said that, we have the New Madrid
Seismic zone, which when large earthquakes occur there, the entire eastern half
of the continent tends to ring like a bell. Everyone here is just keeping our
fingers crossed, because the midwest doesn't have the seismic building codes
that you guys have out west. So when the big one happens here, I think a lot of
people are going to be "frelled". There are 30 million people who live within
150-200 miles of New Madrid.