The Lancet. Volume 361, Number 9359 01 March 2003

Research letters


Deaths from variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the UK

N J Andrews, C P Farrington, H J T Ward, S N Cousens, P
G Smith, A M Molesworth, R S G Knight, J W Ironside, R G
Will


The table shows the number of clinical onsets,
classifications, and deaths in each year since 1994.
Analysis of deaths showed a significant quadratic term
(p=0·005) in the trend, a departure from a model
with a simple exponential increase (figure). The
quadratic model provides a good fit to the data with no
evidence of lack of fit. The underlying mortality rate
is estimated to be four deaths per quarter at the end
of 2002, with a peak in 2000. Extrapolation of this
quadratic trend predicts that 13 people will die from
vCJD in 2003 (95% prediction interval for total deaths
4-24). Because a quadratic model is appropriate
only for assessing short-term trends, extrapolation with
this model further than 2003 is not sensible.

Year Onsets Classified as vCJD Deaths
1994 8 0 0
1995 10 7 3
1996 11 8 10
1997 14 12 10
1998 17 17 18
1999 29 17 15
2000 24 27 28
2001 16* 25 20
2002 0* 16 17

*The delay from the estimated date of onset to the date
of first classification as vCJD has a median of 11
months (range 4·7-39·5), so these numbers are likely to
increase. Classification is by date classified as
probable, or date confirmed if not classified as
probable.


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