In message , mogga
wrote
On Sun, 31 Aug 2008 15:02:27 +0100, Granity
wrote:


Last night I checked today's forecast for my area, it was: Sunny
intervals up until early evening then heavy rain and thunderstorms. I
woke up this morning to thick fog and it's now raining. This means that
last nights forecast was 100% wrong, in fact I can't remember when we
last had a reasonably correct forecast in the last few months but I
suppose there must have been some.
While I appreciate it's a difficult art surely they, with all the super
computers etc they have, they could do better than this.


They would be more accurate just saying it'll rain every day.

A few years back one of the retiring TV weather men admitted that if
they just reported today's weather as tomorrow's weather they would
probably be more accurate than trying to analyse the data from any
computer model. In fact, if you watch many TV weather forecasts the
presenter will spend more time telling you about what has already
happened. On local radio the presenters will just look out of the
window.

I find that I can often predict the weather in the next 12 hours myself
by looking at animated satellite images.
http://www.meteox.com/gmap.aspx
(Image top right hand corner)
--
Alan
news2006 {at} amac {dot} f2s {dot} com

In article ,
Alan writes:
|
| A few years back one of the retiring TV weather men admitted that if
| they just reported today's weather as tomorrow's weather they would
| probably be more accurate than trying to analyse the data from any
| computer model. ...

That's a few decades ago, actually, as far as the actual patterns go.
The other problem with forecasting is that most people want to know
if THEY will be rained on - and a forecast of patchy rainfall over an
area may be right, but isn't what they regard as right.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

In message , Nick Maclaren
wrote

In article ,
Alan writes:
|
| A few years back one of the retiring TV weather men admitted that if
| they just reported today's weather as tomorrow's weather they would
| probably be more accurate than trying to analyse the data from any
| computer model. ...

That's a few decades ago, actually, as far as the actual patterns go.
The other problem with forecasting is that most people want to know
if THEY will be rained on - and a forecast of patchy rainfall over an
area may be right, but isn't what they regard as right.


What's the point of a weather forecast if it doesn't tell me what I want
to know?

With multi-channel TV you can get any forecast you want. Changing
channels and watching a second forecast within 5 minutes of the first
often gives a completely different picture of the weather, with the
forecaster with the biggest boobs being the most accurate.

--
Alan
news2006 {at} amac {dot} f2s {dot} com

The message
from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words:

That's a few decades ago, actually, as far as the actual patterns go.
The other problem with forecasting is that most people want to know
if THEY will be rained on - and a forecast of patchy rainfall over an
area may be right, but isn't what they regard as right.

Local farmers used to phone RAF Coltishall for a local forecast, and
they were almost always spot-on.

Then some spoilsport told them to stop providing the 'service'.

(And another one closed the airfield.)

--
Rusty
Direct reply to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co period uk
Separator in search of a sig

The message
from Alan contains these words:

I find that I can often predict the weather in the next 12 hours myself
by looking at animated satellite images.

When I was a schoolboy in the '50s, I found a sort-of circular
slide-rule which had belonged to my father (d. 1940). It was a 'freebie'
given away with the Daily Telegraph.

You entered (as I remember):

Season (or month?);
Prevailing weather conditions;
Direction of wind;
Temperature;
And probably more...

I never knew it to be wrong: indeed, I earned a small income by
predicting that the weather forecast was wrong, and what the weather
would *REALLY* be.

One coup was betting one of the physics teachers half-a-crown I could
outforecast the official forecast for a week. He paid up.

--
Rusty
Direct reply to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co period uk
Separator in search of a sig

On Sun, 31 Aug 2008 20:07:16 +0100, Rusty Hinge 2
wrote:

The message
from Alan contains these words:

I find that I can often predict the weather in the next 12 hours myself
by looking at animated satellite images.

When I was a schoolboy in the '50s, I found a sort-of circular
slide-rule which had belonged to my father (d. 1940). It was a 'freebie'
given away with the Daily Telegraph.

You entered (as I remember):

Season (or month?);
Prevailing weather conditions;
Direction of wind;
Temperature;
And probably more...

I never knew it to be wrong: indeed, I earned a small income by
predicting that the weather forecast was wrong, and what the weather
would *REALLY* be.

One coup was betting one of the physics teachers half-a-crown I could
outforecast the official forecast for a week. He paid up.

Not one of these then?
http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/obje.../1927-913.aspx

Although this imput info looks right
http://cambonli01.uuhost.uk.uu.net/f...vw/weahome.htm
Northern hemisphere calculations based on Negretti and Zambra weather
slide rule
--
http://www.freedeliveryuk.co.uk
http://www.holidayunder100.co.uk

The message
from mogga contains these words:

Not one of these then?
http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/obje.../1927-913.aspx

Although this imput info looks right
http://cambonli01.uuhost.uk.uu.net/f...vw/weahome.htm
Northern hemisphere calculations based on Negretti and Zambra weather
slide rule

Not got enough bandwith allocation ATM to go looking at websites a lot.

But I do remember it had 'The Daily Telegraph' logo in a prominent position.

--
Rusty
Direct reply to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co period uk
Separator in search of a sig