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has the Met office lost the plot?
The message
from Granity contains these words: Last night I checked today's forecast for my area, it was: Sunny intervals up until early evening then heavy rain and thunderstorms. I woke up this morning to thick fog and it's now raining. This means that last nights forecast was 100% wrong, in fact I can't remember when we last had a reasonably correct forecast in the last few months but I suppose there must have been some. While I appreciate it's a difficult art surely they, with all the super computers etc they have, they could do better than this. Forecast was spot-on for here - so far. Looking forward to the heavy showers this evening... -- Rusty Direct reply to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co period uk Separator in search of a sig |
has the Met office lost the plot?
"Granity" wrote in message ... Last night I checked today's forecast for my area, it was: Sunny intervals up until early evening then heavy rain and thunderstorms. I woke up this morning to thick fog and it's now raining. This means that last nights forecast was 100% wrong, in fact I can't remember when we last had a reasonably correct forecast in the last few months but I suppose there must have been some. While I appreciate it's a difficult art surely they, with all the super computers etc they have, they could do better than this. -- Granity Unable to give you a very close forecast, but I can tell you we are in for a very warm, sunny and pleasant September :-)) |
has the Met office lost the plot?
In article , Granity writes: | | While I appreciate it's a difficult art surely they, with all the super | computers etc they have, they could do better than this. I was trying to educate some of my colleagues about this only last week. There are three problems with weather forecasting: 1) Lack of data. Up until the 1960s, there was ONE weather ship in the North Atlantic, and the patterns were deduced by guesswork primarily from shore station data. That has been largely resolved by satellite data. 2) Lack of computer power. Up until the 1970s, a reliable forecast for 24 hours ahead took over 24 hours to calculate :-) That has been largely resolved by modern microprocessors. 3) Insolubility of the problem. This is traditionally called numerical instability, but has been renamed as chaotic behaviour by the popular press. That is not possible to resolve, as it is a mathematical restriction! The weather forecasters said that the one consequence of global warming that they were certain of was increased instability; that was not published in the popular press, on the grounds that it was too hard to explain. They were right. In the past two years, the weather forecast for the UK has been changing faster than the weather. Note that, in this respect, even journals like Nature may count as "the popular press" - I haven't read it regularly in years, but it was (at that stage) very weak on advanced statistics, mathematics and computational theory. It probably still is. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
has the Met office lost the plot?
On Sun, 31 Aug 2008 15:02:27 +0100, Granity
wrote: Last night I checked today's forecast for my area, it was: Sunny intervals up until early evening then heavy rain and thunderstorms. I woke up this morning to thick fog and it's now raining. This means that last nights forecast was 100% wrong, in fact I can't remember when we last had a reasonably correct forecast in the last few months but I suppose there must have been some. While I appreciate it's a difficult art surely they, with all the super computers etc they have, they could do better than this. They would be more accurate just saying it'll rain every day. -- http://www.freedeliveryuk.co.uk http://www.holidayunder100.co.uk |
has the Met office lost the plot?
"Granity" wrote in message ... Last night I checked today's forecast for my area, it was: Sunny intervals up until early evening then heavy rain and thunderstorms. I woke up this morning to thick fog and it's now raining. This means that last nights forecast was 100% wrong, in fact I can't remember when we last had a reasonably correct forecast in the last few months but I suppose there must have been some. While I appreciate it's a difficult art surely they, with all the super computers etc they have, they could do better than this. -- Granity Well, they've certainly put my gardening nose out of joint. I was going to mow the lawn and lay some turf today. Big, fat, soggy chance now!! {:~( Spider |
has the Met office lost the plot?
In message , mogga
wrote On Sun, 31 Aug 2008 15:02:27 +0100, Granity wrote: Last night I checked today's forecast for my area, it was: Sunny intervals up until early evening then heavy rain and thunderstorms. I woke up this morning to thick fog and it's now raining. This means that last nights forecast was 100% wrong, in fact I can't remember when we last had a reasonably correct forecast in the last few months but I suppose there must have been some. While I appreciate it's a difficult art surely they, with all the super computers etc they have, they could do better than this. They would be more accurate just saying it'll rain every day. A few years back one of the retiring TV weather men admitted that if they just reported today's weather as tomorrow's weather they would probably be more accurate than trying to analyse the data from any computer model. In fact, if you watch many TV weather forecasts the presenter will spend more time telling you about what has already happened. On local radio the presenters will just look out of the window. I find that I can often predict the weather in the next 12 hours myself by looking at animated satellite images. http://www.meteox.com/gmap.aspx (Image top right hand corner) -- Alan news2006 {at} amac {dot} f2s {dot} com |
has the Met office lost the plot?
Last night I checked today's forecast for my area, it was: Sunny intervals up until early evening then heavy rain and thunderstorms. I woke up this morning to thick fog and it's now raining. This means that last nights forecast was 100% wrong, in fact I can't remember when we last had a reasonably correct forecast in the last few months but I suppose there must have been some.
While I appreciate it's a difficult art surely they, with all the super computers etc they have, they could do better than this. |
has the Met office lost the plot?
In article , Charlie Pridham writes: | | As one of the hundreds of Britsh weather ships in the Atlantic in the | past I think you underestimate the value of the fact that virtually the | entire british merchant fleet were kitted out to submit 6 hourly weather | reports from all over the world, we used to curse it when busy | (especially the radio officers who had to get up at all sorts of odd | times as they were done on GMT) but I never recall a missed report. As | Satilites came in so the fleet shrank so that by now even if the ships | were submitting reports they would be so far apart as to not be much use That is true, but you reported only on a limited range of surface observations, unless I was seriously misled when I worked (physically) in the Met. Office. The most important data for forecasting beyond the next 24 hours (and even to a large extent beyond the next 6) is about the atmosphere higher up - its temperature, humidity and movement. That is not to deprecate your work, but it helped more with warning ships to know when to batten down the hatches than to forecast what would hit the UK. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
has the Met office lost the plot?
In article , Alan writes: | | A few years back one of the retiring TV weather men admitted that if | they just reported today's weather as tomorrow's weather they would | probably be more accurate than trying to analyse the data from any | computer model. ... That's a few decades ago, actually, as far as the actual patterns go. The other problem with forecasting is that most people want to know if THEY will be rained on - and a forecast of patchy rainfall over an area may be right, but isn't what they regard as right. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
has the Met office lost the plot?
In message , Nick Maclaren
wrote In article , Alan writes: | | A few years back one of the retiring TV weather men admitted that if | they just reported today's weather as tomorrow's weather they would | probably be more accurate than trying to analyse the data from any | computer model. ... That's a few decades ago, actually, as far as the actual patterns go. The other problem with forecasting is that most people want to know if THEY will be rained on - and a forecast of patchy rainfall over an area may be right, but isn't what they regard as right. What's the point of a weather forecast if it doesn't tell me what I want to know? With multi-channel TV you can get any forecast you want. Changing channels and watching a second forecast within 5 minutes of the first often gives a completely different picture of the weather, with the forecaster with the biggest boobs being the most accurate. -- Alan news2006 {at} amac {dot} f2s {dot} com |
has the Met office lost the plot?
"Spider" wrote in message ... Well, they've certainly put my gardening nose out of joint. I was going to mow the lawn and lay some turf today. Big, fat, soggy chance now!! {:~( Get rid of the grass and grow something more worthwhile! Mary |
has the Met office lost the plot?
"Granity" wrote in message ... Last night I checked today's forecast for my area, it was: Sunny intervals up until early evening then heavy rain and thunderstorms. I woke up this morning to thick fog and it's now raining. This means that last nights forecast was 100% wrong, in fact I can't remember when we last had a reasonably correct forecast in the last few months but I suppose there must have been some. While I appreciate it's a difficult art surely they, with all the super computers etc they have, they could do better than this. Does it really matter? Well, it might to weather geeks* but not to ordinary humanity, we'll continue no matter what. If we live in sensitive areas we know the signs to look out for, surely? Life's too short and, as Jerome Klapka Jerome said, "They're not always wrong". Mary *We once spent a 'holiday' with such a geek, he was very upset because all his detailed charts showed that it should be raining in Bournemouth and it wasn't. |
has the Met office lost the plot?
In article , Martin writes: | On Sun, 31 Aug 2008 14:06:43 +0100, Charlie Pridham | wrote: | | AFAIR, there was only two British Atlantic Ocean weather ships out of the four | European ships permanently stationed in the Atlantic. | | See I J and K M http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/viewImag...=4698&aid=2343 Ah. Possibly fading memory. But possibly I merely misunderstood my source. Only two of those were in positions that would be of significant help in forecasting UK weather, and only one would have been of much use (J). A and I are too far north to catch most of the movements, and A and C were too close to America (too much scope for uncertainty later). Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
has the Met office lost the plot?
In article , Martin writes: | | | | AFAIR, there was only two British Atlantic Ocean weather ships out of the four | | European ships permanently stationed in the Atlantic. | | | | See I J and K M http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/viewImag...=4698&aid=2343 | | Ah. Possibly fading memory. But possibly I merely misunderstood my | source. | | I can only remember I J and K being on the charts. They would have been the only ones of any use at all in forecasting for this country, and I and K would have been VERY marginal, at best. The others would have been used for warning aircraft (which flew lower then) when to take a different route. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
has the Met office lost the plot?
"Mary Fisher" wrote in message t... "Spider" wrote in message ... Well, they've certainly put my gardening nose out of joint. I was going to mow the lawn and lay some turf today. Big, fat, soggy chance now!! {:~( Get rid of the grass and grow something more worthwhile! Mary Sacrilege! Wash your mouth out with some of that rainwater. :~) Spider |
has the Met office lost the plot?
"Spider" wrote in message ... "Mary Fisher" wrote in message t... "Spider" wrote in message ... Well, they've certainly put my gardening nose out of joint. I was going to mow the lawn and lay some turf today. Big, fat, soggy chance now!! {:~( Get rid of the grass and grow something more worthwhile! Mary Sacrilege! Wash your mouth out with some of that rainwater. :~) No. People who grow grass and lovingly water and feed it to make it grow and dal with 'weeds' in it hen cut it down and don't even eat it are missing something in the great scheme of things. Grass is useless except as a food for some animals. Mary |
has the Met office lost the plot?
The message
from Rusty Hinge 2 contains these words: The message from Granity contains these words: Last night I checked today's forecast for my area, it was: Sunny intervals up until early evening then heavy rain and thunderstorms. I woke up this morning to thick fog and it's now raining. This means that last nights forecast was 100% wrong, in fact I can't remember when we last had a reasonably correct forecast in the last few months but I suppose there must have been some. While I appreciate it's a difficult art surely they, with all the super computers etc they have, they could do better than this. Forecast was spot-on for here - so far. Looking forward to the heavy showers this evening... Sorry to follow-up my own post but... http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/...--iver_001.jpg As well as a comment on the accuracy of my forecasting, there is some progress on the front garden, lilac trimmed to a third of its previous size; truncating holly tree to about a foot in height; (both actions letting in light to grape vines, hunza aprocot, cranberries and figs); hammering-in of posts for supporting cordons/espaliers, etc; Advance Of The Rhubarb; earthworks, stoneworks, staithe... ....Oh, and just visible over next-door's hedge, half the cheapo tubular garden-arch, up which has been started some evergreen honeysuckle, varigated ivy, a dark blue clematis, and when I've rooted it, a well-known mauve-flowered clematis. I hope this lot will interweave to produce a tolerably waterproof 'porch'. I bought two of these archesand a longth of studding, which means I can extend the arch to twice its intended width, and still have enough pieces to make a complete hoop. What to do with it mind, is a moot point. -- Rusty Direct reply to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co period uk Separator in search of a sig |
has the Met office lost the plot?
In article ,
says... In article , Charlie Pridham writes: | | As one of the hundreds of Britsh weather ships in the Atlantic in the | past I think you underestimate the value of the fact that virtually the | entire british merchant fleet were kitted out to submit 6 hourly weather | reports from all over the world, we used to curse it when busy | (especially the radio officers who had to get up at all sorts of odd | times as they were done on GMT) but I never recall a missed report. As | Satilites came in so the fleet shrank so that by now even if the ships | were submitting reports they would be so far apart as to not be much use That is true, but you reported only on a limited range of surface observations, unless I was seriously misled when I worked (physically) in the Met. Office. The most important data for forecasting beyond the next 24 hours (and even to a large extent beyond the next 6) is about the atmosphere higher up - its temperature, humidity and movement. That is not to deprecate your work, but it helped more with warning ships to know when to batten down the hatches than to forecast what would hit the UK. Regards, Nick Maclaren. This is true the vast majority of the ships did only a range of observations at the surface and apart from observing cloud type were not able to tell what was going on above, I believe from talking to some of the other officers that some of the passenger ships did do balloon work but I don't know how many -- Charlie Pridham, Gardening in Cornwall www.roselandhouse.co.uk Holders of national collections of Clematis viticella cultivars and Lapageria rosea |
has the Met office lost the plot?
In article , Charlie Pridham writes: | | This is true the vast majority of the ships did only a range of | observations at the surface and apart from observing cloud type were not | able to tell what was going on above, I believe from talking to some of | the other officers that some of the passenger ships did do balloon work | but I don't know how many I am pretty sure that it didn't provide enough coverage to be of much use for (UK terrestrial) forecasting - certainly, that is what I was told. Even by the 1960s, passenger ships were dwindling. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
has the Met office lost the plot?
The message
from Alan contains these words: I find that I can often predict the weather in the next 12 hours myself by looking at animated satellite images. When I was a schoolboy in the '50s, I found a sort-of circular slide-rule which had belonged to my father (d. 1940). It was a 'freebie' given away with the Daily Telegraph. You entered (as I remember): Season (or month?); Prevailing weather conditions; Direction of wind; Temperature; And probably more... I never knew it to be wrong: indeed, I earned a small income by predicting that the weather forecast was wrong, and what the weather would *REALLY* be. One coup was betting one of the physics teachers half-a-crown I could outforecast the official forecast for a week. He paid up. -- Rusty Direct reply to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co period uk Separator in search of a sig |
has the Met office lost the plot?
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has the Met office lost the plot?
The message
from "Mary Fisher" contains these words: "Spider" wrote in message ... Well, they've certainly put my gardening nose out of joint. I was going to mow the lawn and lay some turf today. Big, fat, soggy chance now!! {:~( Get rid of the grass and grow something more worthwhile! Watercress... -- Rusty Direct reply to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co period uk Separator in search of a sig |
has the Met office lost the plot?
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has the Met office lost the plot?
In article , Martin writes: | | In the early 1960s civil & military aircraft also supplied weather | observations in a rather crude form. I do know a fair amount about such modelling, you know! The problem about sporadic, crude measurements is that they provide a VERY bad basis for prediction. Even ignoring the fundamental inadequacy of such data, writing programs to use it is fiendishly difficult - MUCH more difficult than writing them to use the data that comes from a measurement station. As I said in the first place, up until they got some decent data from satellites, the primary restriction was the quality of the data. That lasted until (say) the late 1970s. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
has the Met office lost the plot?
In article , Martin writes: | | The problem about sporadic, crude measurements is that they provide | a VERY bad basis for prediction. Even ignoring the fundamental | inadequacy of such data, writing programs to use it is fiendishly | difficult - MUCH more difficult than writing them to use the data | that comes from a measurement station. | | The Ferranti Mercury was a bit limiting too. I learnt computing by being dropped in at the deep end with wind-flow modelling on a Mercury Meteor - a 60 microsecond cycle time and 24 KB of memory :-) However, during the 1960s, they used systems like CDCs. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
has the Met office lost the plot?
On Sun, 31 Aug 2008 20:07:16 +0100, Rusty Hinge 2
wrote: The message from Alan contains these words: I find that I can often predict the weather in the next 12 hours myself by looking at animated satellite images. When I was a schoolboy in the '50s, I found a sort-of circular slide-rule which had belonged to my father (d. 1940). It was a 'freebie' given away with the Daily Telegraph. You entered (as I remember): Season (or month?); Prevailing weather conditions; Direction of wind; Temperature; And probably more... I never knew it to be wrong: indeed, I earned a small income by predicting that the weather forecast was wrong, and what the weather would *REALLY* be. One coup was betting one of the physics teachers half-a-crown I could outforecast the official forecast for a week. He paid up. Not one of these then? http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/obje.../1927-913.aspx Although this imput info looks right http://cambonli01.uuhost.uk.uu.net/f...vw/weahome.htm Northern hemisphere calculations based on Negretti and Zambra weather slide rule -- http://www.freedeliveryuk.co.uk http://www.holidayunder100.co.uk |
has the Met office lost the plot?
"Rusty Hinge 2" wrote in message k... The message from "Mary Fisher" contains these words: "Spider" wrote in message ... Well, they've certainly put my gardening nose out of joint. I was going to mow the lawn and lay some turf today. Big, fat, soggy chance now!! {:~( Get rid of the grass and grow something more worthwhile! Watercress... Why not? Better than grass. Mary |
has the Met office lost the plot?
In article , Martin writes: | | However, during the 1960s, they used systems like CDCs. | | In 1962 the Met office only had a Ferranti Mercury. There was no point on wasting money on a CDC for actual prediction until the collected data was good enough to make it worthwhile. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
has the Met office lost the plot?
The message
from mogga contains these words: Not one of these then? http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/obje.../1927-913.aspx Although this imput info looks right http://cambonli01.uuhost.uk.uu.net/f...vw/weahome.htm Northern hemisphere calculations based on Negretti and Zambra weather slide rule Not got enough bandwith allocation ATM to go looking at websites a lot. But I do remember it had 'The Daily Telegraph' logo in a prominent position. -- Rusty Direct reply to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co period uk Separator in search of a sig |
has the Met office lost the plot?
"Mary Fisher" wrote in message t... "Spider" wrote in message ... "Mary Fisher" wrote in message t... "Spider" wrote in message ... Well, they've certainly put my gardening nose out of joint. I was going to mow the lawn and lay some turf today. Big, fat, soggy chance now!! {:~( Get rid of the grass and grow something more worthwhile! Mary Sacrilege! Wash your mouth out with some of that rainwater. :~) No. People who grow grass and lovingly water and feed it to make it grow and dal with 'weeds' in it hen cut it down and don't even eat it are missing something in the great scheme of things. Grass is useless except as a food for some animals. Mary Yes, indeed. It's food for many moths and crickets, among other things. A recent thread explored the loss of once-common chirruping crickets and their like. Those who claimed to still see them were the people who grew grass or lived close to grassland. I'll stick with my grass and its treasured inhabitants - they are worthwhile to me. There are areas aplenty in my garden where grass has vanished in the interest of 'better' plants, but I must also have native and natural things around me. Spider |
has the Met office lost the plot?
The message
from "Spider" contains these words: Yes, indeed. It's food for many moths and crickets, among other things. A recent thread explored the loss of once-common chirruping crickets and their like. Those who claimed to still see them were the people who grew grass or lived close to grassland. I'll stick with my grass and its treasured inhabitants - they are worthwhile to me. There are areas aplenty in my garden where grass has vanished in the interest of 'better' plants, but I must also have native and natural things around me. My garden was full of tiny crickets this spring, but the bloody spiders ate most of them... -- Rusty Direct reply to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co period uk Separator in search of a sig |
has the Met office lost the plot?
On 1/9/08 09:55, in article ,
"Mary Fisher" wrote: "Rusty Hinge 2" wrote in message k... The message from "Mary Fisher" contains these words: "Spider" wrote in message ... Well, they've certainly put my gardening nose out of joint. I was going to mow the lawn and lay some turf today. Big, fat, soggy chance now!! {:~( Get rid of the grass and grow something more worthwhile! Watercress... Why not? Better than grass. Mary I doubt earthworms would agree! -- Sacha http://www.hillhousenursery.com South Devon |
has the Met office lost the plot?
On 31 Aug, 20:01, (Nick Maclaren) wrote:
In article ,C harlie Pridham writes: | | This is true the vast majority of the ships did only a range of | observations at the surface and apart from observing cloud type were not | able to tell what was going on above, I believe from talking to some of | the other officers that some of the passenger ships did do balloon work | but I don't know how many I am pretty sure that it didn't provide enough coverage to be of much use for (UK terrestrial) forecasting - certainly, that is what I was told. *Even by the 1960s, passenger ships were dwindling. Between 1968 and 1971 I made 4-hourly reports of sea temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind direction and strength, precipitation and cloud cover by telegram to the Met office from merchant ships. These were voluntary observations. The practice persisted into the 1990s - I was on a research ship doing it in 1994 - but appears to be completely dead now. There are, in any case, few British merchant ships to join in. |
has the Met office lost the plot?
In article , bobharvey writes: | | Between 1968 and 1971 I made 4-hourly reports of sea temperature, | atmospheric pressure, wind direction and strength, precipitation and | cloud cover by telegram to the Met office from merchant ships. These | were voluntary observations. The practice persisted into the 1990s - | I was on a research ship doing it in 1994 - but appears to be | completely dead now. There are, in any case, few British merchant | ships to join in. Yes. The trouble with purely surface observations is that they give a good idea of how the weather is changing at the time, but very little information on what it is going to do 24 hours hence. That information WAS useful - for maritime and aerial safety - but wasn't enough to make the computer-based forecasts useful. The satellite data allowed a guess at the water vapour content and upper air temperatures, plus probably other important figures, which changed the feasibility of using computers. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
has the Met office lost the plot?
In article , Martin writes: | | The satellite data allowed a guess at the water vapour content and | upper air temperatures, plus probably other important figures, which | changed the feasibility of using computers. | | Yesterday was exactly 11 years since the launch of the last Meteosat first | generation satellite, a satellite cobbled together using flight spares and in | one case a part rescued from a museum But the Meteosat series was not the first - see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_satellite The Nimbus series demonstrated that enough data could be collected, and it was the successors of that which were used to make the change from human to computer forecasting. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
has the Met office lost the plot?
"Rusty Hinge 2" wrote in message k... The message from "Spider" contains these words: Yes, indeed. It's food for many moths and crickets, among other things. A recent thread explored the loss of once-common chirruping crickets and their like. Those who claimed to still see them were the people who grew grass or lived close to grassland. I'll stick with my grass and its treasured inhabitants - they are worthwhile to me. There are areas aplenty in my garden where grass has vanished in the interest of 'better' plants, but I must also have native and natural things around me. My garden was full of tiny crickets this spring, but the bloody spiders ate most of them... -- Rusty Direct reply to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co period uk Separator in search of a sig Yup, we do that! Yum yum. :~)) Spider |
has the Met office lost the plot?
The message
from "Spider" contains these words: "Rusty Hinge 2" wrote in message k... The message from "Spider" contains these words: My garden was full of tiny crickets this spring, but the bloody spiders ate most of them... Yup, we do that! Yum yum. :~)) I say, that's just not cricket, y'know! -- Rusty Direct reply to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co period uk Separator in search of a sig |
has the Met office lost the plot?
On 2/9/08 21:07, in article ,
"Rusty Hinge 2" wrote: The message from "Spider" contains these words: "Rusty Hinge 2" wrote in message k... The message from "Spider" contains these words: My garden was full of tiny crickets this spring, but the bloody spiders ate most of them... Yup, we do that! Yum yum. :~)) I say, that's just not cricket, y'know! A web of deceit, you think? ;-) -- Sacha http://www.hillhousenursery.com South Devon |
has the Met office lost the plot?
"Rusty Hinge 2" wrote in message k... The message from "Spider" contains these words: "Rusty Hinge 2" wrote in message k... The message from "Spider" contains these words: My garden was full of tiny crickets this spring, but the bloody spiders ate most of them... Yup, we do that! Yum yum. :~)) I say, that's just not cricket, y'know! -- Rusty Direct reply to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co period uk Separator in search of a sig Sad, I know. They didn't even have a good innings, heh heh! I knocked 'em for six! Spider |
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