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wet wet wet summer
According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where
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wet wet wet summer
"zaax" wrote in message ... According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where We get this nonsense every year. Weather forecasters are notoriously bad at forecasting more than five days ahead but they will keep doing it. When they accidentally hit on a 'correct' forecast we all remember it, but when they get it wrong we conveniently forget. R. |
wet wet wet summer
On 2013-03-13 12:01:24 +0000, zaax said:
According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where Given that any reputable met source will tell you that a 5 day forecast is stretching it, that's not worth a passing thought. -- Sacha www.hillhousenursery.com South Devon www.helpforheroes.org.uk |
wet wet wet summer
On 13/03/2013 17:48, Sacha wrote:
On 2013-03-13 12:01:24 +0000, zaax said: According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where Given that any reputable met source will tell you that a 5 day forecast is stretching it, that's not worth a passing thought. And yet the Met Office make a pile of money selling long range forecasts to farmers etc. I suppose these must be computer predictions based on past weather patterns? |
wet wet wet summer
"zaax" wrote in message ... According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where Since this time last year they confidently predicted drought I would wait before investing in an ark! -- Charlie, Gardening in Cornwall Holders of National Collections of Clematis viticella and Lapageria rosea cvs http://www.roselandhouse.co.uk |
wet wet wet summer
On 2013-03-13 19:38:33 +0000, stuart noble said:
On 13/03/2013 17:48, Sacha wrote: On 2013-03-13 12:01:24 +0000, zaax said: According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where Given that any reputable met source will tell you that a 5 day forecast is stretching it, that's not worth a passing thought. And yet the Met Office make a pile of money selling long range forecasts to farmers etc. I suppose these must be computer predictions based on past weather patterns? No idea, to be frank. I would suggest that all you can predict re British weather is that it may be a bit warmer in spring and summer than it is in autumn and winter. I am married to a nurseryman who watches the weather forecast twice a day and is never surprised at the actual weather varying from the forecast or doing precisely what it says. Within one day we can experience rain, sun, gale, no wind, cloud and at night, frost. The only thing that makes him really cross - from a business pov - is hearing that it's piddling with rain in Devon (BIG county)when we're looking out at brilliant sunshine. So - forecasters do their best and why wouldn't they? But this country is an island subjected to ever-changing conditions from several directions. Certainty is not an option. -- Sacha www.hillhousenursery.com South Devon www.helpforheroes.org.uk |
wet wet wet summer
On Wed, 13 Mar 2013 19:38:33 +0000, stuart noble wrote:
On 13/03/2013 17:48, Sacha wrote: On 2013-03-13 12:01:24 +0000, zaax said: According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where Given that any reputable met source will tell you that a 5 day forecast is stretching it, that's not worth a passing thought. And yet the Met Office make a pile of money selling long range forecasts to farmers etc. I suppose these must be computer predictions based on past weather patterns? Look at http://www.ecmwf.int/. They do medium range weather forecasts. There are a lot of huge computers out there trying to predict what the weather will do but if you are asking if a band of rain will pass over Kent or Norfolk in six months time then there is no chance. Short range forecasts are pretty good but then a lot of that is based on using radar and satellites to watch weather systems heading towards us across the Atlantic. I think most of the longer term weather forecasting is probably based on guessing where the jet stream is going to be in six months time. Cheers Dave R |
wet wet wet summer
In article , David.WE.Roberts
writes There are a lot of huge computers out there trying to predict what the weather will do but if you are asking if a band of rain will pass over Kent or Norfolk in six months time then there is no chance. So it will be safe to go out in Kent and Norfolk without a brolly in 6 months time:) -- regards andyw |
wet wet wet summer
In article ,
David.WE.Roberts wrote: On Wed, 13 Mar 2013 19:38:33 +0000, stuart noble wrote: On 13/03/2013 17:48, Sacha wrote: On 2013-03-13 12:01:24 +0000, zaax said: According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where Given that any reputable met source will tell you that a 5 day forecast is stretching it, that's not worth a passing thought. Actually, if it is described competently and not dumbed down, they are pretty reliable up to 5 days and can be pushed to 10. And yet the Met Office make a pile of money selling long range forecasts to farmers etc. I suppose these must be computer predictions based on past weather patterns? Essentially, yes. Plus a lot of modelling of how things might develop, using a mixture of fluid dynamics and past history to guide the modelling. Look at http://www.ecmwf.int/. They do medium range weather forecasts. There are a lot of huge computers out there trying to predict what the weather will do but if you are asking if a band of rain will pass over Kent or Norfolk in six months time then there is no chance. Precisely. And it is only recently that the medium range ones have become even slightly more reliable than just using the past decade's average. And they are only slightly better, even now! Note that this is in terms of probabilities and not details. It was only when the satellites went up that the short term ones became any better than "The same as the day before". Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
wet wet wet summer
On 14/03/2013 09:28, David.WE.Roberts wrote:
On Wed, 13 Mar 2013 19:38:33 +0000, stuart noble wrote: On 13/03/2013 17:48, Sacha wrote: On 2013-03-13 12:01:24 +0000, zaax said: According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where Given that any reputable met source will tell you that a 5 day forecast is stretching it, that's not worth a passing thought. And yet the Met Office make a pile of money selling long range forecasts to farmers etc. I suppose these must be computer predictions based on past weather patterns? Look at http://www.ecmwf.int/. They do medium range weather forecasts. Thanks. Looks like only the first 6 days is free! There are a lot of huge computers out there trying to predict what the weather will do but if you are asking if a band of rain will pass over Kent or Norfolk in six months time then there is no chance. Short range forecasts are pretty good but then a lot of that is based on using radar and satellites to watch weather systems heading towards us across the Atlantic. I think most of the longer term weather forecasting is probably based on guessing where the jet stream is going to be in six months time. Cheers Dave R |
wet wet wet summer
On Wed, 13 Mar 2013 12:08:59 -0000, "Ragnar"
wrote: "zaax" wrote in message ... According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where We get this nonsense every year. Weather forecasters are notoriously bad at forecasting more than five days ahead but they will keep doing it. When they accidentally hit on a 'correct' forecast we all remember it, but when they get it wrong we conveniently forget. R. Stats show that for a specific area (postcode) the forecast is usually correct for 24 hours ahead. It gets less reliable as more days ahead are considered. Mistakes are usually due to weather forecasters trying generalising for large areas. These days anyone with a web connection can get their area forecast directly from the computer model making forecasters redundant:) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/ or http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ Steve -- EasyNN-plus. Neural Networks plus. http://www.easynn.com SwingNN. Forecast with Neural Networks. http://www.swingnn.com JustNN. Just Neural Networks. http://www.justnn.com |
wet wet wet summer
On Wed, 13 Mar 2013 05:01:24 -0700 (PDT), zaax
wrote: According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where You said 'forecasters'. How many have you consulted? I'll bet you can find one who forecasts a drought. |
wet wet wet summer
In article ,
Fuschia wrote: On Wed, 13 Mar 2013 05:01:24 -0700 (PDT), zaax wrote: According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where You said 'forecasters'. How many have you consulted? I'll bet you can find one who forecasts a drought. I consulted my four castors and they were silent on the subject. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
wet wet wet summer
On 14/03/2013 18:06, Sacha wrote:
On 2013-03-14 17:56:51 +0000, said: In article , Fuschia wrote: On Wed, 13 Mar 2013 05:01:24 -0700 (PDT), zaax wrote: According forecasters this summer is setting up to be another wet one just ike last summer. So harvest will be down and floods every where You said 'forecasters'. How many have you consulted? I'll bet you can find one who forecasts a drought. I consulted my four castors and they were silent on the subject. Regards, Nick Maclaren. Not a squeak out of them, eh? Pollux! |
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