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Klara wrote:
In message , Jaques d'Alltrades writes Then I tried the 'rest of 2005' link, which turned out in fact to be the next 12 months - and found nothing but rain, with just a few isolated sunny periods - now, that would really depress me, if I believed it.... Klara, Gatwick basin I do hope Gatwick Basin has a plug, then, and that you can find it. We're right at the bottom of the basin, sitting on the plug :-(( If we pulled it, the whole region would go down the hole! Often 2 miles in any direction is warm and dry and sunny, while we shiver in the fog. Ah, I expect that's why they put an international airport there. -- Mike. |
The message
from Klara contains these words: In message , Jaques d'Alltrades writes Then I tried the 'rest of 2005' link, which turned out in fact to be the next 12 months - and found nothing but rain, with just a few isolated sunny periods - now, that would really depress me, if I believed it.... Klara, Gatwick basin I do hope Gatwick Basin has a plug, then, and that you can find it. We're right at the bottom of the basin, sitting on the plug :-(( If we pulled it, the whole region would go down the hole! Often 2 miles in any direction is warm and dry and sunny, while we shiver in the fog. Strikes me as a strange place for our ancestors to choose to have a goat farm. -- Rusty Open the creaking gate to make a horrid.squeak, then lower the foobar. http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
Then I tried the 'rest of 2005' link, which turned out in fact to be the
next 12 months - and found nothing but rain, with just a few isolated sunny periods - now, that would really depress me, if I believed it.... Jaques d'Alltrades writes I do hope Gatwick Basin has a plug, then, and that you can find it. Klara writes We're right at the bottom of the basin, sitting on the plug :-(( If we pulled it, the whole region would go down the hole! Often 2 miles in any direction is warm and dry and sunny, while we shiver in the fog. Poor you! I often have the reverse - I sit on the inside edge of a horse-shoe shaped ridge on the Chilterns, and quite often I am in sunshine and can see fog and rain and cloud all around. But I also get a lot more wind which makes it harder to grow many things until I can grow a shelter belt - another 15-25 years!! Weather forecasts often apply all around me, but not to my own little patch which has its own ideas. But then that's micro climates for you, and we all live in them :-) -- David |
In message , Dave
writes Often 2 miles in any direction is warm and dry and sunny, while we shiver in the fog. Poor you! I often have the reverse - I sit on the inside edge of a horse-shoe shaped ridge on the Chilterns, and quite often I am in sunshine and can see fog and rain and cloud all around. But I also get a lot more wind which makes it harder to grow many things until I can grow a shelter belt - another 15-25 years!! Weather forecasts often apply all around me, but not to my own little patch which has its own ideas. But then that's micro climates for you, and we all live in them :-) That's what happens: desperate to move out of our tiny third-floor London flat once I couldn't get the pushchair down the stairs, we hit a property boom: houses had gone before we ever got the particulars and prices shot up every week, so we made an instant decision on the best we could get under the circumstances. Thirty years and two more babies later, here we still are. Though not the girls, of course: they've all gone to live on south-facing, sunny hillsides. But until we retire there seems to be no time to think about moving.... -- Klara, Gatwick basin |
http://www.metcheck.com/
Tried 'drying time': well, no washing for me this week... Could have a chilly BBQ on Friday, though. Then I tried the 'rest of 2005' link, which turned out in fact to be the next 12 months - and found nothing but rain, with just a few isolated sunny periods - now, that would really depress me, if I believed it.... Reality check on metcheck: Wonderful drying weather all week so far ... still waiting to find out about Friday's BBQ but: "Predictions of a scorching summer today prompted the Government to send out a warning on how to cope in a heatwave. The Met Office has issued an alert that temperatures in July and August could match the 101F recorded in Kent in 2003. Now the Department of Health says it will distribute leaflets telling people how to keep cool and protect themselves from the sun." I think I'll believe this one - after all, I'd rather be happy until the forecast is proved wrong... -- Klara, Gatwick basin |
In message , Klara
writes http://www.metcheck.com/ Tried 'drying time': well, no washing for me this week... Could have a chilly BBQ on Friday, though. Then I tried the 'rest of 2005' link, which turned out in fact to be the next 12 months - and found nothing but rain, with just a few isolated sunny periods - now, that would really depress me, if I believed it.... Reality check on metcheck: Wonderful drying weather all week so far ... still waiting to find out about Friday's BBQ but: "Predictions of a scorching summer today prompted the Government to send out a warning on how to cope in a heatwave. The Met Office has issued an alert that temperatures in July and August could match the 101F recorded in Kent in 2003. Now the Department of Health says it will distribute leaflets telling people how to keep cool and protect themselves from the sun." I think I'll believe this one - after all, I'd rather be happy until the forecast is proved wrong... Yup :-) a bit like horoscopes - if I read them and they are good - I am a believer. If they are bad - it is all a load of codswallop :-)) Let's just be happy in anticipation. But maybe we should stockpile water for when the water shortage inevitably happens !! -- Sue Begg Do not mess in the affairs of dragons - for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup! |
In message , Sue Begg
writes Let's just be happy in anticipation. But maybe we should stockpile water for when the water shortage inevitably happens !! Alas - on the news tonight they've already withdrawn the heatwave forecast :-(( -- Klara, Gatwick basin |
"Klara" wrote in message
... http://www.metcheck.com/ Tried 'drying time': well, no washing for me this week... Could have a chilly BBQ on Friday, though. Then I tried the 'rest of 2005' link, which turned out in fact to be the next 12 months - and found nothing but rain, with just a few isolated sunny periods - now, that would really depress me, if I believed it.... Reality check on metcheck: Wonderful drying weather all week so far ... still waiting to find out about Friday's BBQ but: "Predictions of a scorching summer today prompted the Government to send out a warning on how to cope in a heatwave. The Met Office has issued an alert that temperatures in July and August could match the 101F recorded in Kent in 2003. Now the Department of Health says it will distribute leaflets telling people how to keep cool and protect themselves from the sun." I think I'll believe this one - after all, I'd rather be happy until the forecast is proved wrong... Yeah, but look at it this way - the pessimist is at worst proved right, but in the normal run of things can only ever be pleasantly surprised! As for the accuracy of long-term weather predictions, take them with a pinch of salt (of the kind of size that would cause medical problems). Weather is a "chaotic system", and one outcome of this is that you can predict with a fair degree of accuracy for the short term (IIRC it's either 3 or 5 days that is the maximum reliable forecast), and also roughly predictable in the long term (ie it will be "cold" this winter, "hot" next summer, "cold" the next winter), but there is just no accuracy that can be assigned to these long term forecasts. The chaotic bit comes in because very tiny differences to the input parameters of the calculations can have wildly disproportionate effect on the outcome of the prediction. ISTR that the post-mortem that took place after the met office's failure to predict the 1987 hurricanes resulted in a lot of interest in the chaotic nature of weather (in the mathematical sense), so I'm surprised that the met office still issue these highly specific long-term forecasts. I hope that they do because of more reliable models, and it's not just pressure to predict. -- Richard Sampson mail me at richard at olifant d-ot co do-t uk |
In article , RichardS
writes "Klara" wrote in message ... http://www.metcheck.com/ Tried 'drying time': well, no washing for me this week... Could have a chilly BBQ on Friday, though. Then I tried the 'rest of 2005' link, which turned out in fact to be the next 12 months - and found nothing but rain, with just a few isolated sunny periods - now, that would really depress me, if I believed it.... Reality check on metcheck: Wonderful drying weather all week so far ... still waiting to find out about Friday's BBQ but: "Predictions of a scorching summer today prompted the Government to send out a warning on how to cope in a heatwave. The Met Office has issued an alert that temperatures in July and August could match the 101F recorded in Kent in 2003. Now the Department of Health says it will distribute leaflets telling people how to keep cool and protect themselves from the sun." I think I'll believe this one - after all, I'd rather be happy until the forecast is proved wrong... Yeah, but look at it this way - the pessimist is at worst proved right, but in the normal run of things can only ever be pleasantly surprised! I have noticed that the pessimists of my acquaintance are generally miserable whereas the optimists seem to lead much happier lives. -- Kay "Do not insult the crocodile until you have crossed the river" |
Klara wrote:
"Predictions of a scorching summer today prompted the Government to send out a warning on how to cope in a heatwave. The Met Office has issued an alert that temperatures in July and August could match the 101F recorded in Kent in 2003. Now the Department of Health says it will distribute leaflets telling people how to keep cool and protect themselves from the sun." I think I'll believe this one - after all, I'd rather be happy until the forecast is proved wrong... However, their web sit now has this: News release Met Office clarifies summer forecast 12 May 2005 Statements in this morning's media imply that the Met Office has forecast record-breaking temperatures this summer. This is not true. Advances in meteorology mean that the Met Office can now make three- or four-month forecasts that suggest whether a season will be warmer or colder and wetter or drier than normal. However, forecasters cannot predict actual daily temperatures more than a week or so in advance. The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office suggests that temperatures in July and August are likely to be above normal. There will undoubtedly be some hot days this summer but, at this stage, it is not possible to predict whether specific temperature thresholds will be reached. The seasonal forecast was used yesterday to launch the Department of Health's Heatwave Service, that will be backed by Met Office forecasts, which aims to protect lives during periods of hot weather. The Met Office will be issuing detailed temperature forecasts during the summer as and when necessary but within the timescales of our normal operational forecasts. Chris -- Chris J Dixon Nottingham UK Have dancing shoes, will ceilidh. |
In article ,
Kay wrote: "Predictions of a scorching summer today prompted the Government to send out a warning on how to cope in a heatwave. The Met Office has issued an alert that temperatures in July and August could match the 101F recorded in Kent in 2003. Now the Department of Health says it will distribute leaflets telling people how to keep cool and protect themselves from the sun." Well, I hope that they will include some more science than their usual crap. In particular, some advice based in the increasing evidence that "sunscreen" creams are at least as likely to be part of the problem as part of the solution. Yeah, but look at it this way - the pessimist is at worst proved right, but in the normal run of things can only ever be pleasantly surprised! I have noticed that the pessimists of my acquaintance are generally miserable whereas the optimists seem to lead much happier lives. The thing that makes me (as a pessimist) so despondent is seeing serious, avoidable problems coming, trying and failing to get the idiot optimists to allow the avoiding action, and then having them smugly say "well, it couldn't have been foreseen." Showing them evidence that (a) I foresaw it, (b) I showed the predictions AND THE SOLUTIONS to them, and (c) everything happened according exactly as I predicted, gets the response "well, it's all your fault then, for not succeeding in persuading us." And, yes, my career has suffered very badly because I was proved right. It would have been OK if I had been proved wrong, because who gives a damn about an incompetent doomster, but a Cassandra or Jeremiah needs persecution. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
Jaques d'Alltrades wrote:
The message from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words: And, yes, my career has suffered very badly because I was proved right. It would have been OK if I had been proved wrong, because who gives a damn about an incompetent doomster, but a Cassandra or Jeremiah needs persecution. Ooooh, goody! Bundle! All onto Nick... Not what I mean by "bundle", I sincerely hope. Nick is now a member of the club for those who found out that bosses prefer you to be wrong: it's when you're right they get really threatened. -- Mike. |
In message , Kay
writes Yeah, but look at it this way - the pessimist is at worst proved right, but in the normal run of things can only ever be pleasantly surprised! I have noticed that the pessimists of my acquaintance are generally miserable whereas the optimists seem to lead much happier lives. Having been both, I can vouch for this. After a lifetime of optimism, I suddenly turned pessimist roughly with the millennium. Is this an age thing? The REALLY depressing part is that my friends tell me I'm not a pessimist, only being realistic at long last! -- Klara, Gatwick basin |
In article ,
Mike Lyle wrote: Jaques d'Alltrades wrote: The message from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words: And, yes, my career has suffered very badly because I was proved right. It would have been OK if I had been proved wrong, because who gives a damn about an incompetent doomster, but a Cassandra or Jeremiah needs persecution. Ooooh, goody! Bundle! All onto Nick... Not what I mean by "bundle", I sincerely hope. Nick is now a member of the club for those who found out that bosses prefer you to be wrong: it's when you're right they get really threatened. Who knows? It might be the sort of thing that turns me on! Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
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