Lotus wrote in message
...
Diagnosis and incidence of prion (CJD) disease: a tetrospective
archival survey with implications for future research
Neurodegeneration vol 4 1995;357-368.

CJ Bruton, RK Bruton, SM Gentleman, GW Roberts. Corsellis
Collection Brain Bank, Dept of neuropathy, Runwell Hosp, Wickford,
Essex. etc.

Reliable identification of CJD in the UX has become essential
following
the suggestion that prion disease in cattle might transmit
accidentally
to humans who eat contaminated beef. recent data suggest that some
cases f CJD may be conically unrecognized; in order to examine this
proposal we reviewed all cases of dementia (n-1000+) collected between
1964 and 1990. We identified 19 cases of CJD of which only 11 were
diagnosed before death. These 11 had a characteristic clinical history
of CJD. Their brains showed little or no external abnormality. In
contrast
only 2 of the 8 clinically unrecognized cases had characteristic
symptoms.
The remaining six presented atypically; their illness lasted 3 years
or more,
motor signs were much less evidnt and simple dementia was the most
promminent feature. the brains showed moderate or severe cereral
atrophy.
Our data indicate that only about 60% of prion disease cases with
pathologically typical SE were identified clinically during life. This
suggests that human prion disease may bemore common than previously
supposed and that a further review of the epidemiology is required.
http://sparc.airtime.co.uk/bse/scij.htm

11 of a thousand - 1.1% of all cases _were_ clinically diagnosed.
{That's a huge number, considering 'sporadic' CJD is considered
to affect 1 person per *million*, isn't it!}

The sample from the SE is not representative of the entire UK
population, we know that Scotland and the borders have low
incidence of BSE, so we'll consider just those of the English
population suffering from dementia, in order to get a rough
indication of the number of CJD deaths a year, were 1.1% of
cases clinically diagnosed as CJD, as stated in the (pre-1990!)
S-E study.

There are currently over 750,000 people in the UK with dementia.
Regionally, this figure can be broken down: England 634,000
http://www.cf.ac.uk/news/02-03/020913.html

CJD kills within months.

634,000 x 1.1% = 6,974 CJD (clinically diagnosed) deaths per year.

But here are the official figures;

Deaths.... sporadic....1990-2002 ..... 598
http://www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/dec02.htm

Something _seriously_ doesn't add up here.

Are the real number of CJD deaths being hidden from us?

no, because the number dying from dementia is pretty well known. If more
of them are dying from CJD you have to explain why other forms of
dementia are falling


--
Jim Webster

"The pasture of stupidity is unwholesome to mankind"

'Abd-ar-Rahman b. Muhammad b. Khaldun al-Hadrami'