On 2013-11-08 11:19:45 +0000, Ophelia said:

Copied from another group:
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The Farmers Almanac this year predicts a hard winter.

I have my own indicators - a heavy crop of crab apples, of winter pears
and a heavy but very late crop of grapes on my vine, huge crop of
conkers and lots of beech mast (earlier in the year).

Isn't that just a sign that we had a decent summer, and most of the
flowers set?

Most of these amateur long range forecasts are based on predicting
headline events, such as heavy snow, widespread ice in the winter; and
violent thunderstorms, very hot days in the summer. They concentrate on
these because the general public remember them and will think to
themselves "oh Mr Bloggitt forecast heavy snow way back in October, he
must be a genius" forgetting that the actual prediction for the heavy
snow was so wishywashy and undefined that it could occur at any time
between November and March (as indeed heavy snow can occur at any time
during that period, for a few days, even in a winter that is milder
than average overall).

The winter (1 Dec to Feb 28/9 officially) of 2010/11 was a good
example. We had large quantities of snow well before Christmas, and
some very icy weather around the festive period, but after that Jan and
Feb 2011 were quite mild, and yet the media were still waffling about
Siberian winters becoming more commonplace (and other such nonsense)
well into one of the mildest Februarys for many years.



The darned squirrels have nearly cultivated my garden with their
frenetic burying of foodstuffs.

That's good enough for me – If the squirrels say it’s going to be ‘ard
it’s going to be ‘ard!.

~~~
I guess all we can do is wait and see