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#1
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Global warming? "Evidence" from my garden?
Is that really enough evidence for an indictment?
"Steve Harris" wrote in message ... 1. A have a lungwort that normally flowers in spring. It's just sent up a couple of stalks with buds on them 2. I have a Cyclamen Coum in flower (no leaves) Steve Harris - Cheltenham - Real address steve AT netservs DOT com A useful bit of gardening software at http://www.netservs.com/garden/ |
#2
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"Cereus-validus......." wrote in message m... Is that really enough evidence for an indictment? "Steve Harris" wrote in message ... 1. A have a lungwort that normally flowers in spring. It's just sent up a couple of stalks with buds on them 2. I have a Cyclamen Coum in flower (no leaves) Steve Harris - Cheltenham - Real address steve AT netservs DOT com A useful bit of gardening software at http://www.netservs.com/garden/ it is in Europe now.............. |
#3
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"michael adams" expounded:
There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Actually it's part of a 10-12,000 year cycle, but no one alive was around for the last one, so they can't imagine time on that scale. -- Ann, gardening in Zone 6a South of Boston, Massachusetts e-mail address is not checked ****************************** |
#4
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In article ,
michael adams wrote: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of that as a correlated random walk). Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
#5
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Nick Maclaren wrote:
In article , michael adams wrote: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of that as a correlated random walk). I'll say this for it, though: pdq does mean "pretty damn quick". -- Mike. |
#6
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In article ,
michael adams wrote: Any extrapolation of climate change based only on around 100 years worth of hard data of varying quality and reliabilty will of necessity require a fair amount of conjecture. That is true, but is seriously misleading, because there is a LOT more data of adequate quality - if you are up to handling it. If you're of the opinion that your conjecture is superior to that of the meteorologists whose opinion I quoted then good for you. No, my statement is not conjecture. I am a statistician, incidentally. To repeat what I said, there is damn-all evidence for a cyclic phenomenon in this case and, in situations like this one, almost all cases of apparent cycles are created by something like an ARIMA process. I could also add that the observations from previous centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory that there is a single predominant cycle. While I am pretty rusty in this aspect of statistics, I could still explain in more detail than I expect you want to know about this issue. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
#7
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"michael adams" wrote in message ... "Nick Maclaren" wrote in message ... In article , michael adams wrote: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of that as a correlated random walk). ... Any extrapolation of climate change based only on around 100 years worth of hard data of varying quality and reliabilty will of necessity require a fair amount of conjecture. If you're of the opinion that your conjecture is superior to that of the meteorologists whose opinion I quoted then good for you. All else is hand waving IMHO. There is one thing for sure - it's going to get a whole lot hotter around here in 6 billion years or so. |
#8
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The message
from "michael adams" contains these words: I can't say fairer than that, now can I? You didn't ask Dubya, didya? -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
#9
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In article ,
michael adams wrote: http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,1533737,00.html And you are regarded THAT as being an ACCURATE representation of what he said? Have you NO experience of how scientific statements get mangled in the press? Professor Saunders says that the current situation is a result of natural climate variability. Drought trends going back more than 100 years show this sort of natural cycle repeating itself time and again. He also rules out global warming as a contributing factor since it is expected to cause wetter winters. And there you can see it. Assuming that he knows his statistics, the first sentence is likely to be an accurate representation of what he said, but the term 'natural cycle' was almost certainly introduced as a loose description by the reporter. I'm not in the habit of posting unsupported rubbish on NewsGroups Then please don't do so again. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
#10
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In article ,
Ann wrote: "michael adams" expounded: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Actually it's part of a 10-12,000 year cycle, but no one alive was around for the last one, so they can't imagine time on that scale. Ice cores from Greenland indicate that the last "little" ice age came on in 7 years. That was the one that killed people in N. Europe, a couple of hundred years ago. The University of Alaska Fairbanks sends a team over to Greenland every year to drill the ice. If anyone wants to look this stuff up, hit the UAF website. (Probably the geophysical dept.) People moved over here to Alaska during the last "big" ice age. They've found tools and stuff that date to 10K YBP up near Old Crow in the Yukon Territory, right across the present Alaska/Canada border, up above the Yukon River. (Up the Porcupine River.) This little blue planet will revoke our permission to live on it any damned time it feels like it, with no advance notice. So in the mean time, grow a nice garden and try to be kind to people. (Unless they're idiots, twits or trolls.) Jan -- The way to a man's heart is between the fourth and the fifth rib. |
#11
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In article ,
Jaques d'Alltrades wrote: The message from "michael adams" contains these words: I can't say fairer than that, now can I? You didn't ask Dubya, didya? No, but he clearly learnt his science from the same source. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
#12
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michael adams wrote:
[...] Although lying about people seems a particular speciality of yours. As it is with most Crackpots of course. More especially once they start to feel the heat. [...] Michael, I can't help wondering why you use such an aggressive style in discussion. It's awfully off-putting. I seem to remember having been on the wrong end of it myself on one occasion (perhaps I started it: I really can't remember). Surely if you have the evidence and present it clearly, it will speak for itself: the issue is far too interesting to get emotional about. Nick gets distinctly blunt at times, but ratcheting up isn't the way to deal with it. -- Mike. |
#13
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It seems clear that the reason for this year's heat wave is the lack of
particulate matter in the atmosphere blocking out the solar radiation. What needs to be done is to encourage pollution worldwide to block out the bad radiation so we can cool down the planet just a little!!!! Duby's hare-brained solution to the problem almost seems to make sense. We need to burn a lot more coal!!! "Nick Maclaren" wrote in message ... In article , Jaques d'Alltrades wrote: The message from "michael adams" contains these words: I can't say fairer than that, now can I? You didn't ask Dubya, didya? No, but he clearly learnt his science from the same source. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
#14
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The message
from "michael adams" contains these words: So if the drought trends aren't decribing 'cycles' precisely what are they describing ? Trends, perhaps? -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
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