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RBG Orchid show in Burlington Ont
I am not sure if we can get to the SOOS show, my wife is concerned about
the SARS out break in the GTA. She may change her mind as the weekend gets nearer. I wouldn't worry about SARS. It seems to me that the media especially, but also certain politicians, have blown it up way out of proportion. There are less than 2000 cases world wide, and the WHO has known about it for 5 months already. If it is highly contagious, why is it that China, with a population of over a billion people, doesn't have millions of cases and tens of thousands of deaths? And then there is the fact that the mortality rate among known cases is of the order of 4%. Globally, there are only a few dozen deaths: tragic, but it could be much worse, and it is much worse with a number of other diseases we generally ignore until they actually hit us personally. Yes, it is apparently something new, and it is prudent for health care authorities to be examining it, but with the numbers I have seen so far, you are more likely to die from the flue in the next couple weeks than you are to die from SARS. After all, the last I heard on the news, there are an average of 2000 deaths annually in Canada alone due to the flue: and some strains of the flue are MUCH worse than even that. In the case of the flue, we know that, with most varieties, the very young, the very old, and the sick are most at risk because their immune systems are weak. In the case of SARS, there are far to few cases to even make a guess at relative vulerabilities, except in the case of front line health care workers, who seem to be at the greatest risk in Canada; but that is because they are constantly exposed to sick people. In some respects, it is like the concern about the west nile virus. Yes, it can kill, and when symptoms apear they can be very serious, but the vast majority of those actually infected with this virus never even shown symptoms; and our general level of exposure to the virus is extremely low. Yet, because of the coverage, and I suspect in part the treatment of the issue by public health authorities, there is concern such that some are recommending wide spread spraying for mosquito control (I sit on the environmental advisory committee and have seen this question raised a number of times). It seems to me that the risks due to the spraying may well be much greater than the risk due to the west nile virus. There is just too little known to make a good judgement about what to do, if anything. I wonder how many people with serious conditions, like heart disease or cancer, may die because of hospital closings, and delayed surgery, due to SARS. My sister's brother-in-law has a serious heart condition. He will not survive without surgery, yet his surgery has been postponed indefinitely because of SARS. This is a situation in which taking steps to reduce one health risk exacerbates others, but health care authorities often seem to make recommendations or take decisions based on inadequate data. If I were to speak with your wife, I would say, "Relax. Don't worry about it. The risk to you is minimal. We have been treated to plenty of irresponsible coverage in the media, and questionable judgements made by some in the public health authorities, so your fears are understandable. But do NOT cheat yourself of a delightful experience at the orchid show in Toronto because of this." BTW: lest anyone think I am blowing smoke, I make my living developing software for the environmental consulting industry to facilitate risk assessment, and I am an ecologist by training. I agree with you regarding Irises and Lilies, they have been favourites of mine for years. We moved to a new home last year that has about half an acre of gardens full of unusual (for our location) plants, trees and shrubs. There where very few Iris or lilies. I hope to correct that problem! I am in almost a similar situation. I bought, with my sister, a house in Orillia that has a HUGE lot. The difference is that there were no gardens at all anywhere, and in front of the house were two really six, large cedars (now composting). My health is not very good, though, and double digging the flower beds I put in front of the house almost killed me. I am diabetic, and the day after I did it, my blood sugar went from 9 mmol/l to less than 2 mmol/l in three quarters of an hour at breakfast time despite having had a carbohydrate rich breakfast (any reading less than 3.5 mmol/l should be considered dangerous). This was due to an elevated metabolic rate due to the exercise the previous day. Had my nieces not been present when it happened and ran to get fast sugar, I would have died last spring. Fortunately, that was the only dangerous low I have ever had, and over the past five years, my blood sugar has fallen as low as 3.5 mmol/l only about a half a dozen times. I want to set up some beds in the back yard, but I can't afford to hire anyone, and doing it myself will take a fair bit of time, especially since every place I would put one will require double digging and significant ammendment of the soil (I would probably need a truck load of triple mix to get it right); and there is no help since my sister's kids are too small and the adults in my family are all way to busy with working for a living (I work too, but I don't have to work weekends). For me, in addition to the beauty and fragrance of the lilies and irises generally, the fact that they are very hardy perrenials has obvious advantages for me. Cheers, Ted |
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