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16-04-2003, 09:44 AM
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ξΑ: Wheat prices
"Jim Webster" wrote in message ... Larry Caldwell wrote in message ... In article , writes: Larry Caldwell writes What do you want, Jim? I just looked up the Portland prices. #1 hard red winter wheat is bid $5.45, twice what it was a couple years ago, and soft white is around $4.65, up $1.30 from last year, with February futures 10 cents higher. Most farmers are looking at a net of $150-$250 per acre, depending on yields. That will pay the mortgage. Currently UK soft is worth little more than 55UKP/T (say $US88/T) ex farm. Just think, with the switch to the Euro, the rest of the world will actually be able to figure out how much something costs in Britain. the rest of the world can now Under UK situations this absolutely doesn't pay for most arable farms. In real terms it's about 1/15th of what we got 30 years ago. I don't understand that at all. Portland prices are export bids and carry no subsidy, so what you are looking at is what international buyers are willing to pay for wheat. Inland producing areas barge grain down the Columbia and blow it onto grain freighters bound for the Far East. Prices bid are minimum rail car lots, 100 metric tons. Maybe you are too far from export markets, but I would think grain freighters could make it through the Suez. Really deep draft ships can't make it to Portland either. The river channel limits them to a 43 foot draft. Even with higher shipping costs, I can't see it adding up to anywhere near $2 a bushel. We should be talking pennies. Your prices in Britain should be almost identical to Chicago prices, and maybe even a little higher. no, because US prices are higher at the moment because you haven't got much wheat to export. You also keep out Ukranian wheat because of phyto-sanitary regulations so do not face competition in your own market. UK export markets were the countries of the North African coast who now buy mainly Ukranian wheat, as indeed are Spain which was one of the UKs major customers last year. We have to compete on the world market with Ukranian wheat which means that our price is so low it looks like we will export up to 200,000 tonnes of feed wheat to the US this year. Talk about taking coal to New Castle. Sell into our wheat feed market? I suppose there is a better feed wheat market some where in the country than around here. But here the only wheat that goes for wheat is junk we can't sell for human consumption. But we don't have any poultry. It is too hot in the summer. Regular temperatures of 110 f or 43 C cause too much death loss. The hottest I ever saw was 122f or 50C I am sure that the poultry industry buys a good deal of wheat for feed and if the price is right hog farmers will too. The prices for the rest of the crop year for feed wheat should be better. Corn prices seem to be good as well. I haven't seen a quote for feed wheat. I have never thought about what the weakening dollar does to you as an exporter. Since the FED had to replace the water cooling system on the money printing machine with liquid nitrogen after thing went to pot over here the have greatly increased the money supply. Most every one I talk to is holding wheat for higher prices and the way corn prices are acting they must be doing the same there as well. Gordon |
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