"Jim Webster" wrote in message
...

Gordon Couger wrote in message
...
no, because US prices are higher at the moment because you haven't
got
much wheat to export. You also keep out Ukranian wheat because of
phyto-sanitary regulations so do not face competition in your own
market.
UK export markets were the countries of the North African coast who
now
buy mainly Ukranian wheat, as indeed are Spain which was one of the
UKs
major customers last year.
We have to compete on the world market with Ukranian wheat which
means
that our price is so low it looks like we will export up to 200,000
tonnes of feed wheat to the US this year.

Talk about taking coal to New Castle. Sell into our wheat feed market?
I
suppose there is a better feed wheat market some where in the country
than
around here. But here the only wheat that goes for wheat is junk we
can't
sell for human consumption. But we don't have any poultry. It is too
hot in
the summer. Regular temperatures of 110 f or 43 C cause too much death
loss.
The hottest I ever saw was 122f or 50C

I am sure that the poultry industry buys a good deal of wheat for feed
and
if the price is right hog farmers will too.

The prices for the rest of the crop year for feed wheat should be
better.
Corn prices seem to be good as well. I haven't seen a quote for feed
wheat.


apparently UK feed wheat is replacing Maize in the diet of hens

I have never thought about what the weakening dollar does to you as an
exporter. Since the FED had to replace the water cooling system on the
money
printing machine with liquid nitrogen after thing went to pot over
here the
have greatly increased the money supply.

Most every one I talk to is holding wheat for higher prices and the
way
corn prices are acting they must be doing the same there as well.

I don't know. If you have a half decent crop next year, or have any
grain to get rid of, then the price will probably crash through the
bottom.

The surplus that was dragging down the world is drawn down and the southern
hemisphere is short. We will have to make a hell of a crop to crash the
prices. But good conditions, and putting a crop in right for a change could
make a real difference. You best hope that you can keep Round Up ready wheat
off the market. It will make a big difference in the yield of the farmers
that raise wheat primarily for pasture and the wheat is a by product. Most
of them are covered up with cheat and there is no herbicide for it. This
year at home we only got in half the wheat before it started raining before
it was cool enough for the cheat to come up. If they can get it in this
month they are set for top yields instead of max pasture.

Even at these prices wheat is worth as much as pasture as it is as grain.

The American way of farming is not good for anyone that competes with us.

From a land lords point of view I have to make my land attractive enough to
get good crop share renters. That's not too hard to do if you realize that I
make money mostly on gross sales and he makes his only on net profit and not
get greedy.

After the experience with drip in west Texas I am looking at doing something
similar with a center pivot on my dad's place. He's 94 and depressed about
income. It's going to be mine an my brother soon anyway and the water is
only 40 feet deep. Customs are a lot different on landlords putting in
irrigation equipment in west Texas than they are in southwest Oklahoma but
the pay is the same or better because it costs a lot less to do. We had to
drill a half dozen 150 foot wells in Texas I can drill a lot of 40 footers
to feed a used center pivot. In Texas a lot of the landlord own the
irrigation equipment but in Oklahoma almost none do. I don't care how big a
wad my neighbor panties get in if do things different if it makes me money.

That does not produce the right response to a falling market. Since I make
my money on a share of the gross sales less the same share of the fertilizer
and spraying and very few other expenses investing money to double or triple
production makes sense in face of falling prices. But it the only sensible
course to me to maximize my profits. If my government won't regulate
production I am not going to be a fool and not stick my head in the trough
as deep as I can.

It appears to me that the EU and UK have a much more difficult time finding
ways to do that because you already are producing pretty much all the land
is capable of, you can't utilize bigger machinery very well and the
government has limited a great many cost cutting measures we use everyday
and added a whole slew of costly measures of their own. Also the movement is
trying to keep you from increasing production.

You can't put in irrigation and increase productively close to an order of
magnitude like my wife did in Texas. Of course that only works for a while
until everybody does it. It won't work that good on dad's it will tipple his
production but it make it a lot surer pay day. With irrigation we still
have most of the advantages of a dry area but a lot better yields.

Like I said on a mail list in India it is in my personal best interest if no
one else adopts GM crops and all of the EU goes organic in the short run. In
the long run I don't think having India falling behind in agriculture self
sufficiency and having atomic weapons is in anyone's best interest. They
don't need much excuse to start a war over there.
--
Gordon

Gordon Couger
Stillwater, OK
www.couger.com/gcouger