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"% Chance of rain"
On Fri, 21 Jul 2017 08:51:53 +0100, Asha Santon wrote:
On 2017-07-20 19:38:18 +0000, James Wilkinson Sword said: On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 16:08:28 +0100, NY wrote: "James Wilkinson Sword" wrote in message news What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance of rain"? 1) It will rain for 40% of the day. 2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point. I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are completely different meanings. Given that it includes the word "chance" (ie probability) I'd interpret it as the second meaning: if (hypothetically) you replayed the day many times (Groundhog Day!) then approx 40% of the occurrences of the day would have some rain. Which is of no use to me whatsoever. Pouring with rain all day is nothing like spitting for half an hour. Yet they don't distinguish between the two. There should be a measurement where 0% means no rain at all, and 100% means rain all day. Actually there shouldn't as there is no possibility of redefining the meaning of probability to suit the needs of one person. I'd think most people want to know if it'll rain once or all day. If you get your forecasts online, then you can get, as I mentioned previously, an hourly forecast with the probability for each hour. That already tells you if it is likely to rain all day or just at certain times. Show me one that's anywhere near accurate. If you want more than that then there are only two possibilities. One is that you do not understand weather forecasting. I understand they're rubbish at it. The other is that you are in fact as the troll I just killfiled suggests. Being of a kindly and generous disposition, I will assume the first. Re your disgusting sig. Love is a strong feeling of affection (no more, no less). The other topic is completely unrelated thereto. HTH. Since you snipped it I don't know which one you're referring to. But if you find it disgusting I can only assume you're a prude from the Victorian ages. -- If you're cross-eyed and have dyslexia, can you read all right? |
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