This will be my last post to this, er, gentleman on this topic.


In article ,
"michael adams" writes:
|
| Who's getting anything mangled Mr MacLaren ?

You are. Repeatedly.

| As has already been pointed out to you more than once, this
| is what Professor Saunders is quoted as saying on the BBC
| Website.
|
| Nothing to do with the "Guardian" at all, Mr MacLaren.

Ah. Well, if you start off long postings with abuse, don't expect
people to read them. I failed to notice you had introduced a new
reference. If I had, I could have pointed out that you had made
a new mistake.

| It is a natural cycle of a period of about 50 or 60 years," Professor
| Saunders told the BBC News website.

The previous paragraph stated what 'it' is:

The forecast spate of hurricanes in 2005 is part of a
multi-decadal cycle of fluctuating sea temperatures.

Yes, there are known, relatively stable cycles of fluctuating
sea temperatures, just as there is one of solar activity. It
is extremely unclear (nay, doubtful) that the stability of the
cycles is more than a temporary phenomenon, but something that
repeats more than once (even if with somewhat irregular timing)
can fairly be called a cycle. Do a Web search on 'el Nino' for
a the best known and most important of these.

I remain unconvinced about a 60 year cycle, but I have not looked
into that matter recently and don't know if there is any evidence
for it (there used not to be). But it isn't implausible.

This, however, has next to nothing to do with your original
claim, which was referring to European droughts and heatwaves.
There is very good evidence that they do NOT follow any regular
cycle, and adequate data going back centuries. There are known,
agreed meteorological reasons why relatively simple phenomena in
the Carribean do not cause simple phenomena in Europe.

Saunders will know all that, which is why he responded differently
to the different questions from the Guardian and BBC.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

"Nick Maclaren" wrote in message
...


snip

Saunders will know all that, which is why he responded differently
to the different questions from the Guardian and BBC.



The work of the group led by Prof Saunders is 'showcased' (apologies if that
is not the correct word) at
http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/
which includes a 'Publications' page of links to refereed papers and
conference papers which, I suggest, might go some way to putting some flesh
on the necessarily very bare bones of the BBC article, for those who are
interested.