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Global warming? "Evidence" from my garden?
1. A have a lungwort that normally flowers in spring. It's just sent up
a couple of stalks with buds on them 2. I have a Cyclamen Coum in flower (no leaves) Steve Harris - Cheltenham - Real address steve AT netservs DOT com A useful bit of gardening software at http://www.netservs.com/garden/ |
Is that really enough evidence for an indictment?
"Steve Harris" wrote in message ... 1. A have a lungwort that normally flowers in spring. It's just sent up a couple of stalks with buds on them 2. I have a Cyclamen Coum in flower (no leaves) Steve Harris - Cheltenham - Real address steve AT netservs DOT com A useful bit of gardening software at http://www.netservs.com/garden/ |
"Cereus-validus......." wrote in message m... Is that really enough evidence for an indictment? "Steve Harris" wrote in message ... 1. A have a lungwort that normally flowers in spring. It's just sent up a couple of stalks with buds on them 2. I have a Cyclamen Coum in flower (no leaves) Steve Harris - Cheltenham - Real address steve AT netservs DOT com A useful bit of gardening software at http://www.netservs.com/garden/ it is in Europe now.............. |
In article ,
michael adams wrote: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of that as a correlated random walk). Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
Nick Maclaren wrote:
In article , michael adams wrote: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of that as a correlated random walk). I'll say this for it, though: pdq does mean "pretty damn quick". -- Mike. |
In article ,
michael adams wrote: Any extrapolation of climate change based only on around 100 years worth of hard data of varying quality and reliabilty will of necessity require a fair amount of conjecture. That is true, but is seriously misleading, because there is a LOT more data of adequate quality - if you are up to handling it. If you're of the opinion that your conjecture is superior to that of the meteorologists whose opinion I quoted then good for you. No, my statement is not conjecture. I am a statistician, incidentally. To repeat what I said, there is damn-all evidence for a cyclic phenomenon in this case and, in situations like this one, almost all cases of apparent cycles are created by something like an ARIMA process. I could also add that the observations from previous centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory that there is a single predominant cycle. While I am pretty rusty in this aspect of statistics, I could still explain in more detail than I expect you want to know about this issue. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
The message
from "michael adams" contains these words: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Flippin cold war all over again... -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
"Jaques d'Alltrades" wrote in message k... The message from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words: I could also add that the observations from previous centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory that there is a single predominant cycle. Quite. I favour Velocette, but others like Triumph... Matchless G9 |
"michael adams" wrote in message ... "Nick Maclaren" wrote in message ... In article , michael adams wrote: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of that as a correlated random walk). ... Any extrapolation of climate change based only on around 100 years worth of hard data of varying quality and reliabilty will of necessity require a fair amount of conjecture. If you're of the opinion that your conjecture is superior to that of the meteorologists whose opinion I quoted then good for you. All else is hand waving IMHO. There is one thing for sure - it's going to get a whole lot hotter around here in 6 billion years or so. |
"Jaques d'Alltrades" wrote in message k... The message from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words: I could also add that the observations from previous centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory that there is a single predominant cycle. Quite. I favour Velocette, but others like Triumph... I read on teletext today that some ladies are cycling around england on Harley-Davidson bikes. I wasn't aware that they made bicycles! -- Alan Reply to alan (dot) holmes27 (at) virgin (dot) net -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
The message
from "michael adams" contains these words: I can't say fairer than that, now can I? You didn't ask Dubya, didya? -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
In article ,
michael adams wrote: http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,1533737,00.html And you are regarded THAT as being an ACCURATE representation of what he said? Have you NO experience of how scientific statements get mangled in the press? Professor Saunders says that the current situation is a result of natural climate variability. Drought trends going back more than 100 years show this sort of natural cycle repeating itself time and again. He also rules out global warming as a contributing factor since it is expected to cause wetter winters. And there you can see it. Assuming that he knows his statistics, the first sentence is likely to be an accurate representation of what he said, but the term 'natural cycle' was almost certainly introduced as a loose description by the reporter. I'm not in the habit of posting unsupported rubbish on NewsGroups Then please don't do so again. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
The message
from "Mike" contains these words: "Jaques d'Alltrades" wrote in message k... The message from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words: I could also add that the observations from previous centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory that there is a single predominant cycle. Quite. I favour Velocette, but others like Triumph... Matchless G9 Now if you'd said 'Silver Hawk'... -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
Variously it was written:
I could also add that the observations from previous centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory that there is a single predominant cycle. Quite. I favour Velocette, but others like Triumph... I read on teletext today that some ladies are cycling around england on Harley-Davidson bikes. I wasn't aware that they made bicycles! Alan I wasn't aware that they made bikes ! ( motorised armchairs, more like) mallards Bring back my trusty Comet and Rapide ,, I wish,,,,sigh,,, PS Those ladies must have strong legs then, not to mention the thighs and,,, |
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