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Global warming? "Evidence" from my garden?
1. A have a lungwort that normally flowers in spring. It's just sent up
a couple of stalks with buds on them 2. I have a Cyclamen Coum in flower (no leaves) Steve Harris - Cheltenham - Real address steve AT netservs DOT com A useful bit of gardening software at http://www.netservs.com/garden/ |
Is that really enough evidence for an indictment?
"Steve Harris" wrote in message ... 1. A have a lungwort that normally flowers in spring. It's just sent up a couple of stalks with buds on them 2. I have a Cyclamen Coum in flower (no leaves) Steve Harris - Cheltenham - Real address steve AT netservs DOT com A useful bit of gardening software at http://www.netservs.com/garden/ |
"Cereus-validus......." wrote in message m... Is that really enough evidence for an indictment? "Steve Harris" wrote in message ... 1. A have a lungwort that normally flowers in spring. It's just sent up a couple of stalks with buds on them 2. I have a Cyclamen Coum in flower (no leaves) Steve Harris - Cheltenham - Real address steve AT netservs DOT com A useful bit of gardening software at http://www.netservs.com/garden/ it is in Europe now.............. |
In article ,
michael adams wrote: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of that as a correlated random walk). Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
Nick Maclaren wrote:
In article , michael adams wrote: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of that as a correlated random walk). I'll say this for it, though: pdq does mean "pretty damn quick". -- Mike. |
In article ,
michael adams wrote: Any extrapolation of climate change based only on around 100 years worth of hard data of varying quality and reliabilty will of necessity require a fair amount of conjecture. That is true, but is seriously misleading, because there is a LOT more data of adequate quality - if you are up to handling it. If you're of the opinion that your conjecture is superior to that of the meteorologists whose opinion I quoted then good for you. No, my statement is not conjecture. I am a statistician, incidentally. To repeat what I said, there is damn-all evidence for a cyclic phenomenon in this case and, in situations like this one, almost all cases of apparent cycles are created by something like an ARIMA process. I could also add that the observations from previous centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory that there is a single predominant cycle. While I am pretty rusty in this aspect of statistics, I could still explain in more detail than I expect you want to know about this issue. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
The message
from "michael adams" contains these words: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Flippin cold war all over again... -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
"Jaques d'Alltrades" wrote in message k... The message from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words: I could also add that the observations from previous centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory that there is a single predominant cycle. Quite. I favour Velocette, but others like Triumph... Matchless G9 |
"michael adams" wrote in message ... "Nick Maclaren" wrote in message ... In article , michael adams wrote: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of that as a correlated random walk). ... Any extrapolation of climate change based only on around 100 years worth of hard data of varying quality and reliabilty will of necessity require a fair amount of conjecture. If you're of the opinion that your conjecture is superior to that of the meteorologists whose opinion I quoted then good for you. All else is hand waving IMHO. There is one thing for sure - it's going to get a whole lot hotter around here in 6 billion years or so. |
"Jaques d'Alltrades" wrote in message k... The message from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words: I could also add that the observations from previous centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory that there is a single predominant cycle. Quite. I favour Velocette, but others like Triumph... I read on teletext today that some ladies are cycling around england on Harley-Davidson bikes. I wasn't aware that they made bicycles! -- Alan Reply to alan (dot) holmes27 (at) virgin (dot) net -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
The message
from "michael adams" contains these words: I can't say fairer than that, now can I? You didn't ask Dubya, didya? -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
In article ,
michael adams wrote: http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,1533737,00.html And you are regarded THAT as being an ACCURATE representation of what he said? Have you NO experience of how scientific statements get mangled in the press? Professor Saunders says that the current situation is a result of natural climate variability. Drought trends going back more than 100 years show this sort of natural cycle repeating itself time and again. He also rules out global warming as a contributing factor since it is expected to cause wetter winters. And there you can see it. Assuming that he knows his statistics, the first sentence is likely to be an accurate representation of what he said, but the term 'natural cycle' was almost certainly introduced as a loose description by the reporter. I'm not in the habit of posting unsupported rubbish on NewsGroups Then please don't do so again. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
The message
from "Mike" contains these words: "Jaques d'Alltrades" wrote in message k... The message from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words: I could also add that the observations from previous centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory that there is a single predominant cycle. Quite. I favour Velocette, but others like Triumph... Matchless G9 Now if you'd said 'Silver Hawk'... -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
Variously it was written:
I could also add that the observations from previous centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory that there is a single predominant cycle. Quite. I favour Velocette, but others like Triumph... I read on teletext today that some ladies are cycling around england on Harley-Davidson bikes. I wasn't aware that they made bicycles! Alan I wasn't aware that they made bikes ! ( motorised armchairs, more like) mallards Bring back my trusty Comet and Rapide ,, I wish,,,,sigh,,, PS Those ladies must have strong legs then, not to mention the thighs and,,, |
In article ,
Jaques d'Alltrades wrote: The message from "michael adams" contains these words: I can't say fairer than that, now can I? You didn't ask Dubya, didya? No, but he clearly learnt his science from the same source. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
In article ,
martin wrote: On Sun, 21 Aug 2005 10:22:36 +0100, "michael adams" wrote: "martin" wrote in message . .. Call me a naive crackpot, but I'd chose Nick in preference to any journalist. Or perhaps yourself and your Crackpot Master McLaren will now want to accuse the BBC of lying, and putting words in people's mouths as well ? The BBC quite frequently get things wrong, especially technical and scientific subjects. For every expert with an opinion on weather trends there are 10 other experts with differing opinions. Actually, the REAL experts tend to have ten opinions each, and simplify to one only when talking to journalists and lecturing to undergraduates :-) I remember when "the father of climatology" was forecasting that another ice age was imminent. Yup. I remember that, too. That was, indeed, an aspect of the cyclemania that I was referring to. It is only about 50 years since statisticians realised that most data that appears to follow cycles actually doesn't, because the feedback effects are of the sort that do not create regular or predictable patterns. And the belief in cycles is still widespread in many sciences, despite decades of the best people pointing out that the data are clearly incompatible with a true cyclic model. Interestingly, one of the things that keeps cyclemania alive is the deficiency of the English language in not having a term for the sort of irregular variation caused by non-cyclic feedback effects. The nearest term is, indeed, "cycle" but that immediately gets people thinking in terms of regular, predictable variation. Think of this the next time anyone talks about the economy .... Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
In article ,
michael adams wrote: Mclaren wasn't claiming any expert was wrong. He was claiming the reporter was lying. Just as you now seem to be claiming the BBC is lying, in deliberately mis-quoting Professor Mark Saunders. Nonsense. We are both stating that the reporter is likely to have got confused, by not understanding the situation in enough depth, and so produces a misleading or actually incorrect statement. This has happened to both me and most of my colleagues who have been 'quoted' in the press. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
michael adams wrote:
[...] Although lying about people seems a particular speciality of yours. As it is with most Crackpots of course. More especially once they start to feel the heat. [...] Michael, I can't help wondering why you use such an aggressive style in discussion. It's awfully off-putting. I seem to remember having been on the wrong end of it myself on one occasion (perhaps I started it: I really can't remember). Surely if you have the evidence and present it clearly, it will speak for itself: the issue is far too interesting to get emotional about. Nick gets distinctly blunt at times, but ratcheting up isn't the way to deal with it. -- Mike. |
It seems clear that the reason for this year's heat wave is the lack of
particulate matter in the atmosphere blocking out the solar radiation. What needs to be done is to encourage pollution worldwide to block out the bad radiation so we can cool down the planet just a little!!!! Duby's hare-brained solution to the problem almost seems to make sense. We need to burn a lot more coal!!! "Nick Maclaren" wrote in message ... In article , Jaques d'Alltrades wrote: The message from "michael adams" contains these words: I can't say fairer than that, now can I? You didn't ask Dubya, didya? No, but he clearly learnt his science from the same source. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
The message
from "michael adams" contains these words: So if the drought trends aren't decribing 'cycles' precisely what are they describing ? Trends, perhaps? -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
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The message
from martin contains these words: Quite. I favour Velocette, but others like Triumph... when in need of support? I like the thud of the Longstroke MSS, every other lamp post. I like the friskiness of the KTT, and the silent creep-uppedness of the LE - amongst other things. I don't need a walking-frame YET, TYVM. -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
The message
from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words: In article , Jaques d'Alltrades wrote: The message from "michael adams" contains these words: I can't say fairer than that, now can I? (Global warming) You didn't ask Dubya, didya? No, but he clearly learnt his science from the same source. I rather think he learnt it from the same source as his thinking on foreign policy, and his knowledge of psychology. -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
The message
from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words: Interestingly, one of the things that keeps cyclemania alive is the deficiency of the English language in not having a term for the sort of irregular variation caused by non-cyclic feedback effects. The nearest term is, indeed, "cycle" but that immediately gets people thinking in terms of regular, predictable variation. Think of this the next time anyone talks about the economy .... 'Fluctuations' instead of 'cycles'? -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
The message
from "michael adams" contains these words: "Nick Maclaren" wrote in message ... In article , Jaques d'Alltrades wrote: The message from "michael adams" contains these words: I can't say fairer than that, now can I? You didn't ask Dubya, didya? No, but he clearly learnt his science from the same source. Attempting to discredit scientists is more your own, and Bush's (advisors) speciality than mine, I'd have thought. Although lying about people seems a particular speciality of yours. As it is with most Crackpots of course. More especially once they start to feel the heat. The only evidence in support of your increasingly hysterical replies rests in your own posts - nowhere else. -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
The message
from "michael adams" contains these words: "Mike Lyle" wrote in message ... Michael, I can't help wondering why you use such an aggressive style in discussion. It's awfully off-putting. .... Then don't read my posts. It really is as simple as that, isn't it? If you want a forum which is run solely to suit your own personal tastes Mr Lyle, then I can only suggest you start up your own moderated chat board. It isn't my function in life to provide you personally with either entertainment or information. You seem to be succeeding admirably in the former, though failing rather dismally regarding the latter. Perhaps it's a good thing that it isn't your function in life. More especially when you're not paying me anything to do so. And I find it rather presumptuous on your part to assume otherwise. I don't remember anyone assuming that you were being paid for your outpourings. .... I seem to remember having been on the wrong end of it myself on one occasion (perhaps I started it: I really can't remember). Surely if you have the evidence and present it clearly, it will speak for itself: the issue is far too interesting to get emotional about. Nick gets distinctly blunt at times, but ratcheting up isn't the way to deal with it. -- Mike. .... If I ever require advice on how to conduct myself on NewsGroups Mr Lyle, or in life generaly for that matter, you can rest assured that the first person who I'll turn to for advice, will be somebody who clearly believes themselves especially qualified to offer advice on such subjects, such as yourself. Ah, good. I must say that I approve of your rating Mike as knowing how to conduct himself in newsgroups, for I totally agree there. Book of Common Prayer Hear them, read, mark, learn, and inwardly digest them. /Prayer -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
In article ,
Jaques d'Alltrades wrote: The message from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words: Interestingly, one of the things that keeps cyclemania alive is the deficiency of the English language in not having a term for the sort of irregular variation caused by non-cyclic feedback effects. The nearest term is, indeed, "cycle" but that immediately gets people thinking in terms of regular, predictable variation. Think of this the next time anyone talks about the economy .... 'Fluctuations' instead of 'cycles'? Hang on. The reference was from the Guardian. Do you honestly think that they could have spelled 'fluctuations' the same way twice, let alone correctly? But, yes, it is an accurate term. It is very generic, unfortunately, and doesn't identify the particular class of variation that is being referred to here. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
The message
from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words: 'Fluctuations' instead of 'cycles'? Hang on. The reference was from the Guardian. Do you honestly think that they could have spelled 'fluctuations' the same way twice, let alone correctly? I stans collected. But, yes, it is an accurate term. It is very generic, unfortunately, and doesn't identify the particular class of variation that is being referred to here. Perhaps we should coin a new word? I'll kick off with 'fluctuatours' and 'circumfluctuations'. -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
Nick Maclaren wrote:
In article , Jaques d'Alltrades wrote: The message from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words: Interestingly, one of the things that keeps cyclemania alive is the deficiency of the English language in not having a term for the sort of irregular variation caused by non-cyclic feedback effects. The nearest term is, indeed, "cycle" but that immediately gets people thinking in terms of regular, predictable variation. Think of this the next time anyone talks about the economy .... 'Fluctuations' instead of 'cycles'? Hang on. The reference was from the Guardian. Do you honestly think that they could have spelled 'fluctuations' the same way twice, let alone correctly? But, yes, it is an accurate term. It is very generic, unfortunately, and doesn't identify the particular class of variation that is being referred to here. And the consensus on climate change has built to a level where, most unfortunately, one has to start taking into consideration the political or paymaster issues relevant to those relatively few who pop up and tell us there's nothing to worry about. No doubt the mechanisms and even the data of the whole thing are very complex and uncertain, and many specific predictions will turn out to be wrong: this isn't something nice and simple like nuclear physics. But, oh boy, if somebody tells me it doesn't matter if the North Pole has melted, I want to see the cores he's examined to show how often it's happened in the past, and I want to know who's paying him. -- Mike. |
How about burning towns & villages in the name of democracy?
How about more forest fires to open up land to raise more cattle? Lowering air pollution standards would definitely do the job!!! "Rolling Thunder" wrote in message ... On Sun, 21 Aug 2005 12:48:59 GMT, "Cereus-validus......." wrote: It seems clear that the reason for this year's heat wave is the lack of particulate matter in the atmosphere blocking out the solar radiation. What needs to be done is to encourage pollution worldwide to block out the bad radiation so we can cool down the planet just a little!!!! Duby's hare-brained solution to the problem almost seems to make sense. We need to burn a lot more coal!!! snip: Or how about another volcano eruption? Thunder |
In article , Dave Poole writes: | Mike Lyle wrote: | | And the consensus on climate change has built to a level where, most | unfortunately, one has to start taking into consideration the | political or paymaster issues relevant to those relatively few who | pop up and tell us there's nothing to worry about. | | Its rather difficult to accept such 'reassurances' in the light of | what is being discovered. ..., but if they turn out to be | the start of a trend, then I think we may be in for a rougher ride | sooner. I think that you may be right. There is little dissent within the scientific community about the certainty of drastic effects, and not all that much about their magnitude. What isn't known is what the effects will be or the exact timescale! This gets translated by the likes of Bush, his cronies and poodles into a claim that scientists don't know what will happen - and that is used to disregard their warnings. | Core samples illustrate that the world has indeed gone through many | natural periods (oops nearly wrote 'cycles' there Nick) of quite | marked warming (and cooling) in the past. Yes. Yalden contains some nice, clear graphs that show the type of variation that we lack a word for .... | However, at no time in the | earth's history has there been so much additional and artificially | introduced greenhouse gas sloshing around. ... Yes. As I understand it, the last time there was so much was before the great apes had split off from the monkeys. | So is anyone going to mention the possibility of the destabilisation | of methane hydrate deposits and the catastrophic effects that could | have? No? Maybe doomsday scenarios are best left for elsewhere. Well, Michael Adams did raise the prospect of the North Atlantic conveyor reversing. As I understand it, we know that it did within a period (and that means 'within' not 'over') of 50 years about 10-11,000 years ago. However, the models are inadequate to show how that could have happened, whether global warming would cause it to reverse and so on. I believe that the current hypothesis is that it is likely to stop fairly soon, which is bad news for the UK, but not by comparison with it reversing. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
"Nick Maclaren" wrote in message ... In article , michael adams wrote: There are claims even among Global Warming supporting meteorologists that the present European droughts and heatwaves are merely features of a recurrent 60 yr(?) cycle. Because ironically global warming is expected to adversly affect the Gulf Stream and make Western Europe more subject to cold air currents from the Central Asian landmass to the East. Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of that as a correlated random walk). Regards, Nick Maclaren. Global warming is caused by the dwindling number of pirates. See http://www.venganza.org/ Bob |
Bob Smith wrote:
[...] Global warming is caused by the dwindling number of pirates. See http://www.venganza.org/ The calm Voice of Sanity at last! It should be noted, however, that a recent spike in pirate numbers local to Indonesian waters has often been adduced in an attempt to refute the theory. It's very important to get across to the lay public, which might easily be confused by such an apparent counter-example, that in fact these data merely _confirm_ the theory. Nick can explain the stats better than I, and I wish dear old Franz were still with us to describe the physics, but I think it's essentially correct to say it's a matter of what the layman would call "averaging". A localised concentration does nothing to detract from the principle applied globally; and, very interestingly, according to catastrophe theory, may even appear to produce a transitory effect _contrary_ to what a global calculation would predict. -- Mike. |
In article , "Mike Lyle" writes: | | Nick can explain the stats better than I, and I wish dear old Franz | were still with us to describe the physics, but I think it's | essentially correct to say it's a matter of what the layman would | call "averaging". A localised concentration does nothing to detract | from the principle applied globally; and, very interestingly, | according to catastrophe theory, may even appear to produce a | transitory effect _contrary_ to what a global calculation would | predict. As demonstrated by the technology of paraffin refrigerators. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
"michael adams" wrote in message ... "martin" wrote in message ... Call me a naive crackpot, but I'd chose Nick in preference to any journalist. -- Martin Please don't kid yourself. McLaren is the Crackpot here. You are merely clinging onto his coat-tails. McLaren questioned my use of cycles in relation to various aspects of Global Warming. Prof Mark Saunders, Benfield Hazard Research Centre Ah, a Professor, you would be a real expert then? From my contacts with professors over the years, most of them are so bound up with their own importance, they have absolutely no idea of what real life is about. Alan The forecast spate of hurricanes in 2005 is part of a multi-decadal ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ cycle of fluctuating sea temperatures. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ "It is a natural cycle of a period of about 50 or 60 years," Professor ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Saunders told the BBC News website. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ /quote I'd stay in the shallow end if I were you. Certainly if you're relying on the likes of Crackpots like Mclaren, to blow up your water wings and keep you afloat. michael adams ... |
"martin" wrote in message ... On Sat, 20 Aug 2005 20:53:26 +0100, Jaques d'Alltrades wrote: The message from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words: I could also add that the observations from previous centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory that there is a single predominant cycle. Quite. I favour Velocette, but others like Triumph... I've always had Raleigh. -- Alan Reply to alan (dot) holmes27 (at) virgin (dot) net when in need of support? -- Martin |
"Jaques d'Alltrades" wrote in message k... The message from martin contains these words: Quite. I favour Velocette, but others like Triumph... when in need of support? I like the thud of the Longstroke MSS, every other lamp post. I like the friskiness of the KTT, and the silent creep-uppedness of the LE - amongst other things. I don't need a walking-frame YET, TYVM. Lucky beggar! -- Alan Reply to alan (dot) holmes27 (at) virgin (dot) net -- Rusty Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/ |
In article , "Alan Holmes" writes: | | From my contacts with professors over the years, most of them are so bound | up with their own importance, they have absolutely no idea of what real life | is about. That is a trifle unfair. The number that are so self-important that they bullshit about their own field is relatively small, though not unfortunately negligible. But that is largely irrelevant to this situation, which is that of a Guardian reporter mangling a complex and subtle scientific problem and that of a naive layman mangling it considerably further and then claiming that his misunderstanding is what was stated by the original expert. In this case, don't blame the professor :-) Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
Nick Maclaren wrote:
In article , "Mike Lyle" writes: Nick can explain the stats better than I, and I wish dear old Franz were still with us to describe the physics, but I think it's essentially correct to say it's a matter of what the layman would call "averaging". A localised concentration does nothing to detract from the principle applied globally; and, very interestingly, according to catastrophe theory, may even appear to produce a transitory effect _contrary_ to what a global calculation would predict. As demonstrated by the technology of paraffin refrigerators. A perfect example in more than one sense: I remember some people back in Sa'udi had one which had to be turned upside-down every day to make it work. -- Mike. |
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