Home |
Search |
Today's Posts |
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Weather forecast It could be cold/hot/wet/dry
Background
Met Office winter forecasting methods are based primarily on the influence of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures on the European winter climate. Seasonal trends usually affect quite large geographic areas, so the forecast for the UK is cast in the broader picture for Europe as a whole. A statistical method and a number of global forecasting models are used to provide information on the outlook for Winter 2006/7. El Niño conditions - which have widespread weather impacts across the globe - are now becoming established in the Pacific Ocean. There is evidence that El Niño has an effect on European winter climate and this will continue to be monitored. Forecast for Winter 2006/7 Temperature Over much of the European region, the situation is now finely balanced with approximately even chance that the winter will be colder or warmer than average. For the UK, temperatures near the 1971-2000 average are slightly favoured for the winter season as a whole. However, later in the winter season, there is a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an increase in the frequency of cold snaps. Note that even an average winter is likely to include some notable cold snaps and snowfalls. Precipitation For this winter, wetter-than-average conditions are favoured over central and southern Europe, although for the UK, there is approximately even chance of a wetter-or drier-than-average winter. Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across northern Europe and all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast had suggested. In the south-east of England this was the continuation of a long period of dry weather starting in November 2004, continuing through to the summer of 2006. More about the forecast for Europe http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._7/europe.html More about the forecast for UK http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...2006_7/uk.html Forecast uncertainties The current forecast has moved away from our early signal for a mild winter, and there are signs that the trend towards a colder winter outlook may continue as emerging signals become established. Further developments in the situation are therefore expected, as evolution of ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic takes place. Updates and reviews of the forecast It is expected that updates to the forecast will be issued at the beginning of November (10 a.m. on 1 November), early December and January. A monthly appraisal of the winter will start in early January 2007. Winter, in this context, is defined as the months of Dec, Jan and Feb, although it is recognised that winter weather can extend beyond this period, especially in northern Britain |
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
Display Modes | |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Forum | |||
Wet, Wet, Wet | United Kingdom | |||
Evergreen recommendation for Portland, OR (wet, wet, wet) | Lawns | |||
Evergreen recommendation for Portland, OR (wet, wet, wet) | Lawns | |||
Hot hot hot hot! | Australia | |||
Wet, Wet, Wet | United Kingdom |