In article 3,
Tom wrote:

Informed opinion is
that a genuine crash in the UK housing market would stabilise with
prices about a third of what they are at present.

Oh, that's interesting. What is the reasoning behind this
"informed opinion"?

Actual cost of building a house, comparison with other, similar
countries and the increase in house prices relative to other
inflation over the past half-century. I can't remember more details,
but I assume that the figure is for the "in demand" areas.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

wrote in :

Informed opinion is
that a genuine crash in the UK housing market would stabilise with
prices about a third of what they are at present.

Oh, that's interesting. What is the reasoning behind this
"informed opinion"?

Shortly after the peak, I said that I expected the price to
fall to 50% of the peak price, but I had no justification
for that whatsoever. Of course nobody else took that opinion
seriously.

Now I'm not so sure - it may end up being
that the price doesn't fall so much but that the effect will be
the same due to stagflation. And then there's the future
consequences of the baby-boomers dying or downtrading...

Mind you, my timing is atrocious - a decade ago I was telling
first-time buyers that I wasn't sure I would want to get into
the market because I couldn't see any reason for the rapid
increase in prices back then.