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#1
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I think they got it wrong
On Sun, 29 Jun 2014 15:48:54 +0100, "'Mike'"
wrote: We have had forecast for this weekend heavy rain. They had been saying all last week high winds and rain and with a wedding reception arranged for Saturday we put off putting the big gazebo (9 Metres by 3 Metres) up until Friday, expecting the winds to have died a bit, but expecting to get wet. We put it up on Friday in lovely sunshine and very little wind. Lovely day for the Reception yesterday and had a bit of a shower in the evening. Today almost a cloudless sky. How do they get it so wrong? Mike ............................................... .. It depends who is doing the forecast and for location. I find the BBC postcode based forecast to be quite good. Yesterday it was exactly correct for today, dull but no rain. The forecast for my location (SK8) says it will be sunny every day for the next three days. We will see what happens. Steve -- Neural Network Software http://www.npsnn.com EasyNN-plus More than just a neural network http://www.easynn.com SwingNN Prediction software http://www.swingnn.com JustNN Just a neural network http://www.justnn.com |
#2
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I think they got it wrong
"Stephen Wolstenholme" wrote in message
... On Sun, 29 Jun 2014 15:48:54 +0100, "'Mike'" wrote: We have had forecast for this weekend heavy rain. They had been saying all last week high winds and rain and with a wedding reception arranged for Saturday we put off putting the big gazebo (9 Metres by 3 Metres) up until Friday, expecting the winds to have died a bit, but expecting to get wet. We put it up on Friday in lovely sunshine and very little wind. Lovely day for the Reception yesterday and had a bit of a shower in the evening. Today almost a cloudless sky. How do they get it so wrong? Mike ............................................... .. It depends who is doing the forecast and for location. I find the BBC postcode based forecast to be quite good. Yesterday it was exactly correct for today, dull but no rain. The forecast for my location (SK8) says it will be sunny every day for the next three days. We will see what happens. Steve -- Neural Network Software http://www.npsnn.com EasyNN-plus More than just a neural network http://www.easynn.com SwingNN Prediction software http://www.swingnn.com JustNN Just a neural network http://www.justnn.com ================================================== === Watching with you Steve, we have much/sort of the same. What have you got for next weekend? Mike South East Coast of the Isle of Wight .................................................. |
#3
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I think they got it wrong
On 29/06/14 16:25, Stephen Wolstenholme wrote:
It depends who is doing the forecast and for location. I find the BBC postcode based forecast to be quite good. Yesterday it was exactly correct for today, dull but no rain. The forecast for my location (SK8) says it will be sunny every day for the next three days. We will see what happens. Steve The Met Office are buggers for predicting howling rain a week in advance, then changing their mind at the last minute. |
#4
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I think they got it wrong
"Tim Watts" wrote in message
... On 29/06/14 16:25, Stephen Wolstenholme wrote: It depends who is doing the forecast and for location. I find the BBC postcode based forecast to be quite good. Yesterday it was exactly correct for today, dull but no rain. The forecast for my location (SK8) says it will be sunny every day for the next three days. We will see what happens. Steve The Met Office are buggers for predicting howling rain a week in advance, then changing their mind at the last minute. ================================================== == I like that analogy and it certainly worked this last weekend, BUT, will it apply for next weekend ............ please? Mike .................................................. |
#5
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I think they got it wrong
Tim Watts wrote:
The Met Office are buggers for predicting howling rain a week in advance, then changing their mind at the last minute. One thing I learned is to have several grains of salt handy for any forecast more than 2 or 3 days ahead. With computer models, localized forecasts for immediate future are pretty good. The U.S. weather service has a similar forecast based on zip (postal) code; I just apply a temperature fudge because I'm about a thousand feet higher than the pertinent post office... -- Gary Woods AKA K2AHC- PGP key on request, or at home.earthlink.net/~garygarlic Zone 5/4 in upstate New York, 1420' elevation. NY WO G |
#6
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I think they got it wrong
On 29/06/2014 18:31, Gary Woods wrote:
One thing I learned is to have several grains of salt handy for any forecast more than 2 or 3 days ahead. With computer models, localized forecasts for immediate future are pretty good. The U.S. weather service has a similar forecast based on zip (postal) code; I just apply a temperature fudge because I'm about a thousand feet higher than the pertinent post office... I agree with Gary about trying to predict our weather more than 2 or 3 days in advance but you could have look here for a 10-day forecast: http://bit.ly/1iRtf4E Also, Michael Fish's forecast for the week ahead (Netweather) predicts "unseasonably" high winds for the UK this coming weekend. Good Luck! Jeff --- This email is free from viruses and malware because avast! Antivirus protection is active. http://www.avast.com |
#7
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I think they got it wrong
In article ,
Jeff wrote: On 29/06/2014 18:31, Gary Woods wrote: One thing I learned is to have several grains of salt handy for any forecast more than 2 or 3 days ahead. With computer models, localized forecasts for immediate future are pretty good. The U.S. weather service has a similar forecast based on zip (postal) code; I just apply a temperature fudge because I'm about a thousand feet higher than the pertinent post office... In the UK, it's worse than that, and often the forecast for 12 hours ahead is pretty iffy, For the reasons for that, see below. I agree with Gary about trying to predict our weather more than 2 or 3 days in advance but you could have look here for a 10-day forecast: http://bit.ly/1iRtf4E Also, Michael Fish's forecast for the week ahead (Netweather) predicts "unseasonably" high winds for the UK this coming weekend. The reason for the problems is the dumbing down of the British public, not the forecasting. Partly because of our low altitudes (yes, even in the Highlands), whether any particular spot gets rain, sun or whatever (and how much) is a matter of chance. It is possible to predict whether an area will get rain or sun, but not whether a location will, nor very often how much. What is needed is to go back to the older forecast approaches and update them - i.e. to do it in terms of air masses, their movements and their interactions, settled and unsettled patterns and so on. Those are forecastable, and give a good indication of what sorts of weather are likely. But that would require reeducating the British public, and neither the media moguls nor the politicians want THAT! Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
#8
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I think they got it wrong
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#9
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I think they got it wrong
In article ,
Gary Woods wrote: It is possible to predict whether an area will get rain or sun, but not whether a location will, nor very often how much. The one that always amuses me is the generic summer forecast: "Hazy, hot, humid, scattered thunderstorms." Nobody can predict just where, but when there's enough energy and moisture, you can be pretty sure things will happen. On those days, I take an occasional look at the radar images to see where things are popping up. The UK equivalent is "cloudy, generally unsettled, with some sunshine and scattered showers, some of which may be heavy and prolonged". And yes, everybody wants the simple capsule form. Anybody else remember a short story "irtnog," I think. All the day's news was condensed into one word, so people could keep up to date without mental effort. No - thanks for pointing it out. I have seen similar ones, but not that one. Regards, Nick Maclaren. |
#10
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I think they got it wrong
On 30/06/2014 13:27, Gary Woods wrote:
Anybody else remember a short story "irtnog," I think. All the day's news was condensed into one word, so people could keep up to date without mental effort. Not specifically, but it sounds like something from Kurt Vonnegut or maybe Philip K Dick -- regards andy |
#11
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I think they got it wrong
On Mon, 30 Jun 2014 08:27:19 -0400, Gary Woods wrote:
Anybody else remember a short story "irtnog," I think. I love E.B. White. Recently reread "The Second Tree from the Corner." A marvelous writer, his childrens books (Charlotte's Web, Stuart Little) make wonderful reading even for adults. Unfortunate that most now know these tales from the movie versions, not at all my cup of tea. Luckily they haven't gotten to the classic "Trumpet of the Swan", though it's only a matter of time I suppose. -- Gardening in Lower Normandy |
#12
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I think they got it wrong
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#13
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I think they got it wrong
On 29/06/14 21:42, Roger Tonkin wrote:
In article , says... The Met Office are buggers for predicting howling rain a week in advance, then changing their mind at the last minute. They seem to change their minds 2 or 3 times a day! We had a church strawberry tea this afternoon, and I looked at the forecast yeaterday, it started off as rain all afternoon at 9.00am, dry all afternoon at 3.00pm, intermittant showers at 9.00pm, and showers this morning at 9.00am! In the event is was dry and mostly sunny all afternoon! (And plenty of strawberries were eaten) We lie between several hills and that seems to mess up their guesstimates. I *have* noticed however, with the MET, that you sometimes get a forecast saying rain, then in the last 24 hours, it changes to "no rain", then it rains anyway at around the time they originally guessed! Sadly precipitation is very difficult to calculate and it's actually what most people acre about in England. Temperature and wind seems to be quite accurate. |
#14
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I think they got it wrong
On Sun, 29 Jun 2014 16:43:46 +0100, Tim Watts
wrote: On 29/06/14 16:25, Stephen Wolstenholme wrote: It depends who is doing the forecast and for location. I find the BBC postcode based forecast to be quite good. Yesterday it was exactly correct for today, dull but no rain. The forecast for my location (SK8) says it will be sunny every day for the next three days. We will see what happens. Steve The Met Office are buggers for predicting howling rain a week in advance, then changing their mind at the last minute. That's because the model is updated frequently. Local forecasts are quite good but continue to be changed. Since yesterday the forecast for my location (SK8) has now changed to include a light rain shower tomorrow at around teatime. Don't confuse forecast with predict. Steve -- Neural Network Software http://www.npsnn.com EasyNN-plus More than just a neural network http://www.easynn.com SwingNN Prediction software http://www.swingnn.com JustNN Just a neural network http://www.justnn.com |
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