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Old 29-06-2014, 04:25 PM posted to uk.rec.gardening
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Default I think they got it wrong

On Sun, 29 Jun 2014 15:48:54 +0100, "'Mike'"
wrote:

We have had forecast for this weekend heavy rain. They had been saying all
last week high winds and rain and with a wedding reception arranged for
Saturday we put off putting the big gazebo (9 Metres by 3 Metres) up until
Friday, expecting the winds to have died a bit, but expecting to get wet.

We put it up on Friday in lovely sunshine and very little wind. Lovely day
for the Reception yesterday and had a bit of a shower in the evening.

Today almost a cloudless sky.

How do they get it so wrong?

Mike

............................................... ..


It depends who is doing the forecast and for location.

I find the BBC postcode based forecast to be quite good. Yesterday it
was exactly correct for today, dull but no rain. The forecast for my
location (SK8) says it will be sunny every day for the next three
days. We will see what happens.

Steve

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Old 29-06-2014, 04:43 PM posted to uk.rec.gardening
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Default I think they got it wrong

"Stephen Wolstenholme" wrote in message
...

On Sun, 29 Jun 2014 15:48:54 +0100, "'Mike'"
wrote:

We have had forecast for this weekend heavy rain. They had been saying all
last week high winds and rain and with a wedding reception arranged for
Saturday we put off putting the big gazebo (9 Metres by 3 Metres) up until
Friday, expecting the winds to have died a bit, but expecting to get wet.

We put it up on Friday in lovely sunshine and very little wind. Lovely day
for the Reception yesterday and had a bit of a shower in the evening.

Today almost a cloudless sky.

How do they get it so wrong?

Mike

............................................... ..


It depends who is doing the forecast and for location.

I find the BBC postcode based forecast to be quite good. Yesterday it
was exactly correct for today, dull but no rain. The forecast for my
location (SK8) says it will be sunny every day for the next three
days. We will see what happens.

Steve

--
Neural Network Software http://www.npsnn.com
EasyNN-plus More than just a neural network http://www.easynn.com
SwingNN Prediction software http://www.swingnn.com
JustNN Just a neural network http://www.justnn.com
================================================== ===

Watching with you Steve, we have much/sort of the same.

What have you got for next weekend?

Mike

South East Coast of the Isle of Wight

..................................................

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Old 29-06-2014, 04:43 PM posted to uk.rec.gardening
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Default I think they got it wrong

On 29/06/14 16:25, Stephen Wolstenholme wrote:

It depends who is doing the forecast and for location.

I find the BBC postcode based forecast to be quite good. Yesterday it
was exactly correct for today, dull but no rain. The forecast for my
location (SK8) says it will be sunny every day for the next three
days. We will see what happens.

Steve


The Met Office are buggers for predicting howling rain a week in
advance, then changing their mind at the last minute.

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Old 29-06-2014, 05:04 PM posted to uk.rec.gardening
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Default I think they got it wrong

"Tim Watts" wrote in message
...

On 29/06/14 16:25, Stephen Wolstenholme wrote:

It depends who is doing the forecast and for location.

I find the BBC postcode based forecast to be quite good. Yesterday it
was exactly correct for today, dull but no rain. The forecast for my
location (SK8) says it will be sunny every day for the next three
days. We will see what happens.

Steve


The Met Office are buggers for predicting howling rain a week in
advance, then changing their mind at the last minute.
================================================== ==

I like that analogy and it certainly worked this last weekend, BUT, will it
apply for next weekend ............ please?

Mike


..................................................

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Old 29-06-2014, 06:31 PM posted to uk.rec.gardening
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Default I think they got it wrong

Tim Watts wrote:

The Met Office are buggers for predicting howling rain a week in
advance, then changing their mind at the last minute.


One thing I learned is to have several grains of salt handy for any
forecast more than 2 or 3 days ahead. With computer models, localized
forecasts for immediate future are pretty good. The U.S. weather service
has a similar forecast based on zip (postal) code; I just apply a
temperature fudge because I'm about a thousand feet higher than the
pertinent post office...

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Zone 5/4 in upstate New York, 1420' elevation. NY WO G


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Old 29-06-2014, 11:26 PM posted to uk.rec.gardening
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Default I think they got it wrong

On 29/06/2014 18:31, Gary Woods wrote:


One thing I learned is to have several grains of salt handy for any
forecast more than 2 or 3 days ahead. With computer models, localized
forecasts for immediate future are pretty good. The U.S. weather service
has a similar forecast based on zip (postal) code; I just apply a
temperature fudge because I'm about a thousand feet higher than the
pertinent post office...


I agree with Gary about trying to predict our weather more than 2 or 3
days in advance but you could have look here for a 10-day forecast:

http://bit.ly/1iRtf4E

Also, Michael Fish's forecast for the week ahead (Netweather) predicts
"unseasonably" high winds for the UK this coming weekend.
Good Luck!

Jeff

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Old 30-06-2014, 09:53 AM posted to uk.rec.gardening
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Default I think they got it wrong

In article ,
Jeff wrote:
On 29/06/2014 18:31, Gary Woods wrote:

One thing I learned is to have several grains of salt handy for any
forecast more than 2 or 3 days ahead. With computer models, localized
forecasts for immediate future are pretty good. The U.S. weather service
has a similar forecast based on zip (postal) code; I just apply a
temperature fudge because I'm about a thousand feet higher than the
pertinent post office...


In the UK, it's worse than that, and often the forecast for 12 hours
ahead is pretty iffy, For the reasons for that, see below.

I agree with Gary about trying to predict our weather more than 2 or 3
days in advance but you could have look here for a 10-day forecast:

http://bit.ly/1iRtf4E

Also, Michael Fish's forecast for the week ahead (Netweather) predicts
"unseasonably" high winds for the UK this coming weekend.


The reason for the problems is the dumbing down of the British public,
not the forecasting.

Partly because of our low altitudes (yes, even in the Highlands),
whether any particular spot gets rain, sun or whatever (and how much)
is a matter of chance. It is possible to predict whether an area
will get rain or sun, but not whether a location will, nor very often
how much.

What is needed is to go back to the older forecast approaches and
update them - i.e. to do it in terms of air masses, their movements
and their interactions, settled and unsettled patterns and so on.
Those are forecastable, and give a good indication of what sorts
of weather are likely. But that would require reeducating the
British public, and neither the media moguls nor the politicians
want THAT!


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.
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Old 30-06-2014, 01:51 PM posted to uk.rec.gardening
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Default I think they got it wrong

In article ,
Gary Woods wrote:

It is possible to predict whether an area
will get rain or sun, but not whether a location will, nor very often
how much.


The one that always amuses me is the generic summer forecast: "Hazy, hot,
humid, scattered thunderstorms." Nobody can predict just where, but when
there's enough energy and moisture, you can be pretty sure things will
happen. On those days, I take an occasional look at the radar images to
see where things are popping up.


The UK equivalent is "cloudy, generally unsettled, with some sunshine
and scattered showers, some of which may be heavy and prolonged".

And yes, everybody wants the simple capsule form.
Anybody else remember a short story "irtnog," I think. All the day's news
was condensed into one word, so people could keep up to date without mental
effort.


No - thanks for pointing it out. I have seen similar ones, but not
that one.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.
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Old 30-06-2014, 02:30 PM posted to uk.rec.gardening
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Default I think they got it wrong

On 30/06/2014 13:27, Gary Woods wrote:
Anybody else remember a short story "irtnog," I think. All the day's news
was condensed into one word, so people could keep up to date without mental
effort.


Not specifically, but it sounds like something from Kurt Vonnegut or
maybe Philip K Dick

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regards andy


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Old 30-06-2014, 04:24 PM posted to uk.rec.gardening
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Default I think they got it wrong

On Mon, 30 Jun 2014 08:27:19 -0400, Gary Woods wrote:

Anybody else remember a short story "irtnog," I think.


I love E.B. White. Recently reread "The Second Tree from the Corner." A
marvelous writer, his childrens books (Charlotte's Web, Stuart Little)
make wonderful reading even for adults. Unfortunate that most now know
these tales from the movie versions, not at all my cup of tea. Luckily
they haven't gotten to the classic "Trumpet of the Swan", though it's
only a matter of time I suppose.



--
Gardening in Lower Normandy
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Old 30-06-2014, 10:18 AM posted to uk.rec.gardening
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Default I think they got it wrong

On Sun, 29 Jun 2014 16:43:46 +0100, Tim Watts
wrote:

On 29/06/14 16:25, Stephen Wolstenholme wrote:

It depends who is doing the forecast and for location.

I find the BBC postcode based forecast to be quite good. Yesterday it
was exactly correct for today, dull but no rain. The forecast for my
location (SK8) says it will be sunny every day for the next three
days. We will see what happens.

Steve


The Met Office are buggers for predicting howling rain a week in
advance, then changing their mind at the last minute.


That's because the model is updated frequently. Local forecasts are
quite good but continue to be changed. Since yesterday the forecast
for my location (SK8) has now changed to include a light rain shower
tomorrow at around teatime. Don't confuse forecast with predict.

Steve

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EasyNN-plus More than just a neural network http://www.easynn.com
SwingNN Prediction software http://www.swingnn.com
JustNN Just a neural network http://www.justnn.com


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