We have had forecast for this weekend heavy rain. They had been saying all
last week high winds and rain and with a wedding reception arranged for
Saturday we put off putting the big gazebo (9 Metres by 3 Metres) up until
Friday, expecting the winds to have died a bit, but expecting to get wet.

We put it up on Friday in lovely sunshine and very little wind. Lovely day
for the Reception yesterday and had a bit of a shower in the evening.

Today almost a cloudless sky.

How do they get it so wrong?

Mike

..................................................

"'Mike'" wrote:

How do they get it so wrong?

Probably that butterfly in Brazil again flapping his wings in the wrong
direction. Personally, I'm rather fond of chaos.

I used to work with a TV weatherman who said something like "I've got the
only job where you can be wrong a lot of the time and not get fired."


--
Gary Woods AKA K2AHC- PGP key on request, or at home.earthlink.net/~garygarlic
Zone 5/4 in upstate New York, 1420' elevation. NY WO G

"Gary Woods" wrote in message
...

"'Mike'" wrote:

How do they get it so wrong?

Probably that butterfly in Brazil again flapping his wings in the wrong
direction. Personally, I'm rather fond of chaos.

I used to work with a TV weatherman who said something like "I've got the
only job where you can be wrong a lot of the time and not get fired."


--
Gary Woods AKA K2AHC- PGP key on request, or at
home.earthlink.net/~garygarlic
Zone 5/4 in upstate New York, 1420' elevation. NY WO G
================================================== =========

and can't they get it wrong??????????

We want the Gazebo to stay up until next Sunday when we have a Garden Party.
About 80 coming so far and the forecast is 'sort of OK' with a bit of a
shower on both Saturday and Sunday, let's hope that have that forecast wrong
in the same direction as well ;-)

Mike



..................................................

On Sun, 29 Jun 2014 15:48:54 +0100, "'Mike'"
wrote:

We have had forecast for this weekend heavy rain. They had been saying all
last week high winds and rain and with a wedding reception arranged for
Saturday we put off putting the big gazebo (9 Metres by 3 Metres) up until
Friday, expecting the winds to have died a bit, but expecting to get wet.

We put it up on Friday in lovely sunshine and very little wind. Lovely day
for the Reception yesterday and had a bit of a shower in the evening.

Today almost a cloudless sky.

How do they get it so wrong?

Mike

............................................... ..

It depends who is doing the forecast and for location.

I find the BBC postcode based forecast to be quite good. Yesterday it
was exactly correct for today, dull but no rain. The forecast for my
location (SK8) says it will be sunny every day for the next three
days. We will see what happens.

Steve

--
Neural Network Software http://www.npsnn.com
EasyNN-plus More than just a neural network http://www.easynn.com
SwingNN Prediction software http://www.swingnn.com
JustNN Just a neural network http://www.justnn.com

"Stephen Wolstenholme" wrote in message
...

On Sun, 29 Jun 2014 15:48:54 +0100, "'Mike'"
wrote:

We have had forecast for this weekend heavy rain. They had been saying all
last week high winds and rain and with a wedding reception arranged for
Saturday we put off putting the big gazebo (9 Metres by 3 Metres) up until
Friday, expecting the winds to have died a bit, but expecting to get wet.

We put it up on Friday in lovely sunshine and very little wind. Lovely day
for the Reception yesterday and had a bit of a shower in the evening.

Today almost a cloudless sky.

How do they get it so wrong?

Mike

............................................... ..

It depends who is doing the forecast and for location.

I find the BBC postcode based forecast to be quite good. Yesterday it
was exactly correct for today, dull but no rain. The forecast for my
location (SK8) says it will be sunny every day for the next three
days. We will see what happens.

Steve

--
Neural Network Software http://www.npsnn.com
EasyNN-plus More than just a neural network http://www.easynn.com
SwingNN Prediction software http://www.swingnn.com
JustNN Just a neural network http://www.justnn.com
================================================== ===

Watching with you Steve, we have much/sort of the same.

What have you got for next weekend?

Mike

South East Coast of the Isle of Wight

..................................................

On 29/06/14 16:25, Stephen Wolstenholme wrote:

It depends who is doing the forecast and for location.

I find the BBC postcode based forecast to be quite good. Yesterday it
was exactly correct for today, dull but no rain. The forecast for my
location (SK8) says it will be sunny every day for the next three
days. We will see what happens.

Steve


The Met Office are buggers for predicting howling rain a week in
advance, then changing their mind at the last minute.

"Tim Watts" wrote in message
...

On 29/06/14 16:25, Stephen Wolstenholme wrote:

It depends who is doing the forecast and for location.

I find the BBC postcode based forecast to be quite good. Yesterday it
was exactly correct for today, dull but no rain. The forecast for my
location (SK8) says it will be sunny every day for the next three
days. We will see what happens.

Steve


The Met Office are buggers for predicting howling rain a week in
advance, then changing their mind at the last minute.
================================================== ==

I like that analogy and it certainly worked this last weekend, BUT, will it
apply for next weekend ............ please?

Mike


..................................................

Tim Watts wrote:

The Met Office are buggers for predicting howling rain a week in
advance, then changing their mind at the last minute.

One thing I learned is to have several grains of salt handy for any
forecast more than 2 or 3 days ahead. With computer models, localized
forecasts for immediate future are pretty good. The U.S. weather service
has a similar forecast based on zip (postal) code; I just apply a
temperature fudge because I'm about a thousand feet higher than the
pertinent post office...

--
Gary Woods AKA K2AHC- PGP key on request, or at home.earthlink.net/~garygarlic
Zone 5/4 in upstate New York, 1420' elevation. NY WO G

In article ,
says...


The Met Office are buggers for predicting howling rain a week in
advance, then changing their mind at the last minute.

They seem to change their minds 2 or 3 times a day!

We had a church strawberry tea this afternoon, and I looked at
the forecast yeaterday, it started off as rain all afternoon at
9.00am, dry all afternoon at 3.00pm, intermittant showers at
9.00pm, and showers this morning at 9.00am!

In the event is was dry and mostly sunny all afternoon! (And
plenty of strawberries were eaten)

--
Roger T

700 ft up in Mid-Wales

On 29/06/2014 15:48, 'Mike' wrote:
We have had forecast for this weekend heavy rain. They had been saying
all last week high winds and rain and with a wedding reception arranged
for Saturday we put off putting the big gazebo (9 Metres by 3 Metres) up
until Friday, expecting the winds to have died a bit, but expecting to
get wet.

We put it up on Friday in lovely sunshine and very little wind. Lovely
day for the Reception yesterday and had a bit of a shower in the evening.

Today almost a cloudless sky.

How do they get it so wrong?

Mike

.................................................

This morning the forecasts I saw said maybe 2mm of rain near Cambridge.

https://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/dt...raph.cgi?today

Off the scale at over 10mm/hr at one point!

Andy

On 29/06/14 21:42, Roger Tonkin wrote:
In article ,
says...


The Met Office are buggers for predicting howling rain a week in
advance, then changing their mind at the last minute.

They seem to change their minds 2 or 3 times a day!

We had a church strawberry tea this afternoon, and I looked at
the forecast yeaterday, it started off as rain all afternoon at
9.00am, dry all afternoon at 3.00pm, intermittant showers at
9.00pm, and showers this morning at 9.00am!

In the event is was dry and mostly sunny all afternoon! (And
plenty of strawberries were eaten)


We lie between several hills and that seems to mess up their guesstimates.

I *have* noticed however, with the MET, that you sometimes get a
forecast saying rain, then in the last 24 hours, it changes to "no
rain", then it rains anyway at around the time they originally guessed!

Sadly precipitation is very difficult to calculate and it's actually
what most people acre about in England.

Temperature and wind seems to be quite accurate.

On 29/06/2014 18:31, Gary Woods wrote:


One thing I learned is to have several grains of salt handy for any
forecast more than 2 or 3 days ahead. With computer models, localized
forecasts for immediate future are pretty good. The U.S. weather service
has a similar forecast based on zip (postal) code; I just apply a
temperature fudge because I'm about a thousand feet higher than the
pertinent post office...


I agree with Gary about trying to predict our weather more than 2 or 3
days in advance but you could have look here for a 10-day forecast:

http://bit.ly/1iRtf4E

Also, Michael Fish's forecast for the week ahead (Netweather) predicts
"unseasonably" high winds for the UK this coming weekend.
Good Luck!

Jeff

---
This email is free from viruses and malware because avast! Antivirus protection is active.
http://www.avast.com

In article ,
Jeff wrote:
On 29/06/2014 18:31, Gary Woods wrote:

One thing I learned is to have several grains of salt handy for any
forecast more than 2 or 3 days ahead. With computer models, localized
forecasts for immediate future are pretty good. The U.S. weather service
has a similar forecast based on zip (postal) code; I just apply a
temperature fudge because I'm about a thousand feet higher than the
pertinent post office...

In the UK, it's worse than that, and often the forecast for 12 hours
ahead is pretty iffy, For the reasons for that, see below.

I agree with Gary about trying to predict our weather more than 2 or 3
days in advance but you could have look here for a 10-day forecast:

http://bit.ly/1iRtf4E

Also, Michael Fish's forecast for the week ahead (Netweather) predicts
"unseasonably" high winds for the UK this coming weekend.

The reason for the problems is the dumbing down of the British public,
not the forecasting.

Partly because of our low altitudes (yes, even in the Highlands),
whether any particular spot gets rain, sun or whatever (and how much)
is a matter of chance. It is possible to predict whether an area
will get rain or sun, but not whether a location will, nor very often
how much.

What is needed is to go back to the older forecast approaches and
update them - i.e. to do it in terms of air masses, their movements
and their interactions, settled and unsettled patterns and so on.
Those are forecastable, and give a good indication of what sorts
of weather are likely. But that would require reeducating the
British public, and neither the media moguls nor the politicians
want THAT!


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

On Sun, 29 Jun 2014 16:43:46 +0100, Tim Watts
wrote:

On 29/06/14 16:25, Stephen Wolstenholme wrote:

It depends who is doing the forecast and for location.

I find the BBC postcode based forecast to be quite good. Yesterday it
was exactly correct for today, dull but no rain. The forecast for my
location (SK8) says it will be sunny every day for the next three
days. We will see what happens.

Steve


The Met Office are buggers for predicting howling rain a week in
advance, then changing their mind at the last minute.

That's because the model is updated frequently. Local forecasts are
quite good but continue to be changed. Since yesterday the forecast
for my location (SK8) has now changed to include a light rain shower
tomorrow at around teatime. Don't confuse forecast with predict.

Steve

--
Neural Network Software http://www.npsnn.com
EasyNN-plus More than just a neural network http://www.easynn.com
SwingNN Prediction software http://www.swingnn.com
JustNN Just a neural network http://www.justnn.com

(Nick Maclaren) wrote:

It is possible to predict whether an area
will get rain or sun, but not whether a location will, nor very often
how much.

The one that always amuses me is the generic summer forecast: "Hazy, hot,
humid, scattered thunderstorms." Nobody can predict just where, but when
there's enough energy and moisture, you can be pretty sure things will
happen. On those days, I take an occasional look at the radar images to
see where things are popping up.
And yes, everybody wants the simple capsule form.
Anybody else remember a short story "irtnog," I think. All the day's news
was condensed into one word, so people could keep up to date without mental
effort.
Here endeth the soapbox.

--
Gary Woods AKA K2AHC- PGP key on request, or at home.earthlink.net/~garygarlic
Zone 5/4 in upstate New York, 1420' elevation. NY WO G