Klara wrote:
In message , Jaques
d'Alltrades writes
Then I tried the 'rest of 2005' link, which turned out in fact to
be the next 12 months - and found nothing but rain, with just a
few
isolated sunny periods - now, that would really depress me, if I
believed it....

Klara, Gatwick basin

I do hope Gatwick Basin has a plug, then, and that you can find
it.

We're right at the bottom of the basin, sitting on the plug :-((
If we pulled it, the whole region would go down the hole!

Often 2 miles in any direction is warm and dry and sunny, while we
shiver in the fog.

Ah, I expect that's why they put an international airport there.

--
Mike.

The message
from Klara contains these words:
In message , Jaques
d'Alltrades writes

Then I tried the 'rest of 2005' link, which turned out in fact to be the
next 12 months - and found nothing but rain, with just a few isolated
sunny periods - now, that would really depress me, if I believed it....

Klara, Gatwick basin

I do hope Gatwick Basin has a plug, then, and that you can find it.

We're right at the bottom of the basin, sitting on the plug :-((
If we pulled it, the whole region would go down the hole!

Often 2 miles in any direction is warm and dry and sunny, while we
shiver in the fog.

Strikes me as a strange place for our ancestors to choose to have a goat farm.

--
Rusty
Open the creaking gate to make a horrid.squeak, then lower the foobar.
http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/

Then I tried the 'rest of 2005' link, which turned out in fact to be the
next 12 months - and found nothing but rain, with just a few isolated
sunny periods - now, that would really depress me, if I believed it....

Jaques
d'Alltrades writes

I do hope Gatwick Basin has a plug, then, and that you can find it.

Klara writes
We're right at the bottom of the basin, sitting on the plug :-((
If we pulled it, the whole region would go down the hole!

Often 2 miles in any direction is warm and dry and sunny, while we
shiver in the fog.

Poor you! I often have the reverse - I sit on the inside edge of a
horse-shoe shaped ridge on the Chilterns, and quite often I am in
sunshine and can see fog and rain and cloud all around. But I also get a
lot more wind which makes it harder to grow many things until I can grow
a shelter belt - another 15-25 years!!

Weather forecasts often apply all around me, but not to my own little
patch which has its own ideas. But then that's micro climates for you,
and we all live in them :-)

--
David

In message , Dave
writes
Often 2 miles in any direction is warm and dry and sunny, while we
shiver in the fog.

Poor you! I often have the reverse - I sit on the inside edge of a
horse-shoe shaped ridge on the Chilterns, and quite often I am in
sunshine and can see fog and rain and cloud all around. But I also get
a lot more wind which makes it harder to grow many things until I can
grow a shelter belt - another 15-25 years!!

Weather forecasts often apply all around me, but not to my own little
patch which has its own ideas. But then that's micro climates for you,
and we all live in them :-)

That's what happens: desperate to move out of our tiny third-floor
London flat once I couldn't get the pushchair down the stairs, we hit a
property boom: houses had gone before we ever got the particulars and
prices shot up every week, so we made an instant decision on the best we
could get under the circumstances. Thirty years and two more babies
later, here we still are. Though not the girls, of course: they've all
gone to live on south-facing, sunny hillsides. But until we retire there
seems to be no time to think about moving....

--
Klara, Gatwick basin

http://www.metcheck.com/

Tried 'drying time': well, no washing for me this week...
Could have a chilly BBQ on Friday, though.

Then I tried the 'rest of 2005' link, which turned out in fact to be
the next 12 months - and found nothing but rain, with just a few
isolated sunny periods - now, that would really depress me, if I
believed it....


Reality check on metcheck:

Wonderful drying weather all week so far ...

still waiting to find out about Friday's BBQ

but:

"Predictions of a scorching summer today prompted the Government to send
out a warning on how to cope in a heatwave.
The Met Office has issued an alert that temperatures in July and August
could match the 101F recorded in Kent in 2003.
Now the Department of Health says it will distribute leaflets telling
people how to keep cool and protect themselves from the sun."

I think I'll believe this one - after all, I'd rather be happy until the
forecast is proved wrong...

--
Klara, Gatwick basin

In message , Klara
writes
http://www.metcheck.com/

Tried 'drying time': well, no washing for me this week...
Could have a chilly BBQ on Friday, though.

Then I tried the 'rest of 2005' link, which turned out in fact to be
the next 12 months - and found nothing but rain, with just a few
isolated sunny periods - now, that would really depress me, if I
believed it....


Reality check on metcheck:

Wonderful drying weather all week so far ...

still waiting to find out about Friday's BBQ

but:

"Predictions of a scorching summer today prompted the Government to
send out a warning on how to cope in a heatwave.
The Met Office has issued an alert that temperatures in July and August
could match the 101F recorded in Kent in 2003.
Now the Department of Health says it will distribute leaflets telling
people how to keep cool and protect themselves from the sun."

I think I'll believe this one - after all, I'd rather be happy until
the forecast is proved wrong...

Yup :-) a bit like horoscopes - if I read them and they are good - I am
a believer. If they are bad - it is all a load of codswallop :-))
Let's just be happy in anticipation. But maybe we should stockpile water
for when the water shortage inevitably happens !!
--
Sue Begg

Do not mess in the affairs of dragons - for
you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup!

In message , Sue Begg
writes
Let's just be happy in anticipation. But maybe we should stockpile
water for when the water shortage inevitably happens !!

Alas - on the news tonight they've already withdrawn the heatwave
forecast :-((

--
Klara, Gatwick basin

"Klara" wrote in message
...
http://www.metcheck.com/

Tried 'drying time': well, no washing for me this week...
Could have a chilly BBQ on Friday, though.

Then I tried the 'rest of 2005' link, which turned out in fact to be
the next 12 months - and found nothing but rain, with just a few
isolated sunny periods - now, that would really depress me, if I
believed it....


Reality check on metcheck:

Wonderful drying weather all week so far ...

still waiting to find out about Friday's BBQ

but:

"Predictions of a scorching summer today prompted the Government to send
out a warning on how to cope in a heatwave.
The Met Office has issued an alert that temperatures in July and August
could match the 101F recorded in Kent in 2003.
Now the Department of Health says it will distribute leaflets telling
people how to keep cool and protect themselves from the sun."

I think I'll believe this one - after all, I'd rather be happy until the
forecast is proved wrong...



Yeah, but look at it this way - the pessimist is at worst proved right, but
in the normal run of things can only ever be pleasantly surprised!

As for the accuracy of long-term weather predictions, take them with a pinch
of salt (of the kind of size that would cause medical problems).

Weather is a "chaotic system", and one outcome of this is that you can
predict with a fair degree of accuracy for the short term (IIRC it's either
3 or 5 days that is the maximum reliable forecast), and also roughly
predictable in the long term (ie it will be "cold" this winter, "hot" next
summer, "cold" the next winter), but there is just no accuracy that can be
assigned to these long term forecasts. The chaotic bit comes in because
very tiny differences to the input parameters of the calculations can have
wildly disproportionate effect on the outcome of the prediction.

ISTR that the post-mortem that took place after the met office's failure to
predict the 1987 hurricanes resulted in a lot of interest in the chaotic
nature of weather (in the mathematical sense), so I'm surprised that the met
office still issue these highly specific long-term forecasts. I hope that
they do because of more reliable models, and it's not just pressure to
predict.


--
Richard Sampson

mail me at
richard at olifant d-ot co do-t uk

In article , RichardS
writes
"Klara" wrote in message
...
http://www.metcheck.com/

Tried 'drying time': well, no washing for me this week...
Could have a chilly BBQ on Friday, though.

Then I tried the 'rest of 2005' link, which turned out in fact to be
the next 12 months - and found nothing but rain, with just a few
isolated sunny periods - now, that would really depress me, if I
believed it....


Reality check on metcheck:

Wonderful drying weather all week so far ...

still waiting to find out about Friday's BBQ

but:

"Predictions of a scorching summer today prompted the Government to send
out a warning on how to cope in a heatwave.
The Met Office has issued an alert that temperatures in July and August
could match the 101F recorded in Kent in 2003.
Now the Department of Health says it will distribute leaflets telling
people how to keep cool and protect themselves from the sun."

I think I'll believe this one - after all, I'd rather be happy until the
forecast is proved wrong...



Yeah, but look at it this way - the pessimist is at worst proved right, but
in the normal run of things can only ever be pleasantly surprised!

I have noticed that the pessimists of my acquaintance are generally
miserable whereas the optimists seem to lead much happier lives.

--
Kay
"Do not insult the crocodile until you have crossed the river"

Klara wrote:

"Predictions of a scorching summer today prompted the Government to send
out a warning on how to cope in a heatwave.
The Met Office has issued an alert that temperatures in July and August
could match the 101F recorded in Kent in 2003.
Now the Department of Health says it will distribute leaflets telling
people how to keep cool and protect themselves from the sun."

I think I'll believe this one - after all, I'd rather be happy until the
forecast is proved wrong...

However, their web sit now has this:

News release

Met Office clarifies summer forecast

12 May 2005

Statements in this morning's media imply that the Met Office has forecast record-breaking temperatures this summer. This is not true. Advances in meteorology mean that the Met Office can now make three- or four-month forecasts that suggest whether a season will be warmer or colder and wetter or drier than normal. However, forecasters cannot predict actual daily temperatures more than a week or so in advance.

The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office suggests that temperatures in July and August are likely to be above normal. There will undoubtedly be some hot days this summer but, at this stage, it is not possible to predict whether specific temperature thresholds will be reached. The seasonal forecast was used yesterday to launch the Department of Health's Heatwave Service, that will be backed by Met Office forecasts, which aims to protect lives during periods of hot weather. The Met Office will be issuing detailed temperature forecasts during the summer as and when necessary but within the timescales of our normal operational forecasts.

Chris
--
Chris J Dixon Nottingham UK


Have dancing shoes, will ceilidh.

In article ,
Kay wrote:

"Predictions of a scorching summer today prompted the Government to send
out a warning on how to cope in a heatwave.
The Met Office has issued an alert that temperatures in July and August
could match the 101F recorded in Kent in 2003.
Now the Department of Health says it will distribute leaflets telling
people how to keep cool and protect themselves from the sun."

Well, I hope that they will include some more science than their usual
crap. In particular, some advice based in the increasing evidence that
"sunscreen" creams are at least as likely to be part of the problem as
part of the solution.

Yeah, but look at it this way - the pessimist is at worst proved right, but
in the normal run of things can only ever be pleasantly surprised!

I have noticed that the pessimists of my acquaintance are generally
miserable whereas the optimists seem to lead much happier lives.

The thing that makes me (as a pessimist) so despondent is seeing
serious, avoidable problems coming, trying and failing to get the
idiot optimists to allow the avoiding action, and then having them
smugly say "well, it couldn't have been foreseen." Showing them
evidence that (a) I foresaw it, (b) I showed the predictions AND THE
SOLUTIONS to them, and (c) everything happened according exactly
as I predicted, gets the response "well, it's all your fault then,
for not succeeding in persuading us."

And, yes, my career has suffered very badly because I was proved
right. It would have been OK if I had been proved wrong, because
who gives a damn about an incompetent doomster, but a Cassandra or
Jeremiah needs persecution.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

The message
from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words:

And, yes, my career has suffered very badly because I was proved
right. It would have been OK if I had been proved wrong, because
who gives a damn about an incompetent doomster, but a Cassandra or
Jeremiah needs persecution.

Ooooh, goody! Bundle! All onto Nick...

--
Rusty
Open the creaking gate to make a horrid.squeak, then lower the foobar.
http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/

Jaques d'Alltrades wrote:
The message
from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words:

And, yes, my career has suffered very badly because I was proved
right. It would have been OK if I had been proved wrong, because
who gives a damn about an incompetent doomster, but a Cassandra or
Jeremiah needs persecution.

Ooooh, goody! Bundle! All onto Nick...

Not what I mean by "bundle", I sincerely hope. Nick is now a member
of the club for those who found out that bosses prefer you to be
wrong: it's when you're right they get really threatened.

--
Mike.

In message , Kay
writes
Yeah, but look at it this way - the pessimist is at worst proved right, but
in the normal run of things can only ever be pleasantly surprised!

I have noticed that the pessimists of my acquaintance are generally
miserable whereas the optimists seem to lead much happier lives.

Having been both, I can vouch for this. After a lifetime of optimism, I
suddenly turned pessimist roughly with the millennium. Is this an age
thing?
The REALLY depressing part is that my friends tell me I'm not a
pessimist, only being realistic at long last!

--
Klara, Gatwick basin

In article ,
Mike Lyle wrote:
Jaques d'Alltrades wrote:
The message
from (Nick Maclaren) contains these words:

And, yes, my career has suffered very badly because I was proved
right. It would have been OK if I had been proved wrong, because
who gives a damn about an incompetent doomster, but a Cassandra or
Jeremiah needs persecution.

Ooooh, goody! Bundle! All onto Nick...

Not what I mean by "bundle", I sincerely hope. Nick is now a member
of the club for those who found out that bosses prefer you to be
wrong: it's when you're right they get really threatened.

Who knows? It might be the sort of thing that turns me on!


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.