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#16
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Roundup Safety and Toxicity
Another joke that I enjoyed:
"I took an aptitude test to see how I could best contribute to humanity. The results came back "organ donor". Henry Kuska, retired http://home.neo.rr.com/kuska/ |
#17
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Roundup Safety and Toxicity
billo, your answer satisfies my suspicion that your quest is meaningless
since your first reply clearly shows that it excludes meaningful real world groups. I then asked you in another way (" If a group of licensed and periodically recertified people does not meet your criteria, then I cannot visual any meaningful real world group that your criteria would apply to. Please give some examples") so as to cover the logic of both exclude and include and you reply " My criteria for using things as directed is using things as directed". Which of course is no answer, and can be interpreted that you cannot think of one real word group yourself. (If you feel that that is an answer, please look up the definition of what was requested "example" http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=example . Henry Kuska, retired http://home.neo.rr.com/kuska/ "Bill Oliver" wrote in message ... In article , Henry Kuska wrote: Billo said: No, Henry. I am answering the question of why I bother with you. In fact, my challenge still stands. None of the articles you have posted deal with use as directed. In fact, that is one of the stated limitations in the large population studies. H. Kuska reply: ??????? the Minnesota paper states: "Population and population access. In Minnesota, licensing for application of pesticides commercially or for application to one's own farmland requires periodic recertification by completion of a program of education and examination. Applicators are licensed to apply specific classes of pesticides (herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, and/or fumigants)". If a group of licensed and periodically recertified people does not meet your criteria, then I cannot visual any meaningful real world group that your criteria would apply to. Please give some examples . Hmmm. Let's see, can we think of any certified people who don't act exactly as directed. Boy, you must be right. A person who goes through a quick training program and certification must never act in a way contrary to those guidelines. All those reports of malpractice and practice errors by physicians, nurses, and medical technologists in hospitals must be lies, eh, Henry? After all, if going through an orientation session immunizes people from this kind of thing, then years of training and multiple rigorous exams must make it impossible! And lawyers, they never cut corners either, do they? Or plumbers. Or carpenters. Or welders. Or funeral homes. Or restauranteurs. At least not licensed ones. And god knows that there are no licensed drivers that ever break the law. Henry, a good part of my living is investigating the messes caused by trained and licensed people who ignore the rules. There's nobody better than a trained and licensed Ordnance Disposal Expert to be found blowing up himself and his kids welding on a full propane tank. Familiarity breeds contempt, and "experts" are some of the worst at cutting corners -- because they are good enough that they *can* often cut corners and get away with it. My criteria for using things as directed is using things as directed. Also, please provide the exact quote in this paper that you feel makes the statement that the glyphosate was not used as directed. It was not a subject of the paper. Since it was not addressed, a scientist would not make unwarranted assumptions one way or the other. Once again, you pretend that something was tested in a paper that was not tested. This is another paper who's purpose was to generate hypotheses, not test them, and you tout this as a paper that tests the hypotheses. billo |
#18
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Roundup Safety and Toxicity
In article ,
Henry Kuska wrote: billo, your answer satisfies my suspicion that your quest is meaningless since your first reply clearly shows that it excludes meaningful real world groups. I then asked you in another way (" If a group of licensed and periodically recertified people does not meet your criteria, then I cannot visual any meaningful real world group that your criteria would apply to. Please give some examples") so as to cover the logic of both exclude and include and you reply " My criteria for using things as directed is using things as directed". Which of course is no answer, and can be interpreted that you cannot think of one real word group yourself. (If you feel that that is an answer, please look up the definition of what was requested "example" http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=example . No, Henry. If you want to make a statement about whether or not something is being used as directed, you study whether or not something is being used as directed. This is not meaningless. And it is not hard. What is meaningless is to use the Psychic Science Network to pretend that something is being tested when it is not. It would not be hard to test whether or not something is being used as directed. One might start with asking the quesition and finding out whether or not the respondents even claim that it is being used as directed. The second thing one might do is find out whether or not the respondents even actually *know* what the criteria are. The third is to physically look and see if the criteria are being met -- in the case of professional applicators, one can look in the barn and see if things are actually being stored correctly, look at the equipment and see if it is calibrated, look at residual levels in the workplace and see if spillages are correctly handled. As an example of the second, consider the use of Daubert criteria in the courts. A few years ago, the Supreme Court changed the way scientific evidence was admitted into court. They set up some specific criteria and stated that the judges were to be the gatekeepers of what was and was not legally considered "science." Now, using the Henry Psychic Method of assuming results, one would believe that federal and state judges, who have passed the boards, have massive experience, and have specific training would understand and correctly apply these criteria. However, when people actually set down and asked that question, the results were not what you would expect. In a questionnaire of judges, it turned out, for instance, while 88% agreed that "falsifiability" was an important criteria and that they used it regularly, only 6% knew what it meant; 91% felt that a known error rate was important, but only 4% knew what it meant; only 71% understood the concept of peer review. If you want to know if someone is actually following a protocol or instructions, you test for it. You don't just assume it. It's not hard, Henry. It's done in medicine *all the time,* and the results of such studies show that it is important to test for it. And it's not a meaningless question to ask. Ipse dixit died years ago, perhaps not before you retired, but in today's world of inquiry it is by no means meaningless to actually ask if people are doing things as directed. billo |
#19
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Roundup Safety and Toxicity
In article ,
Henry Kuska wrote: Another joke that I enjoyed: "I took an aptitude test to see how I could best contribute to humanity. The results came back "organ donor". Heh. That's a lot like an old Medical Examiner joke: Q) What do Medical Examiners call motorcyclists? A) Organ donors. billo |
#20
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Roundup Safety and Toxicity
In article ,
Henry Kuska wrote: billo, your answer satisfies my suspicion that your quest is meaningless since your first reply clearly shows that it excludes meaningful real world groups. Here are two examples of how it should be done. The first study was a large randomized study of the Atkin's Diet, which found that the Atkins Diet resulted in good weight loss for those who stayed on it, but had a very high level of attrition. In other words, if one stayed with the original group it didn't work -- because few people stayed on the diet. It is important to actually test whether people "on the diet" actually are doing what they are supposed to do: Foster, et al. A Randomized Trial of a Low-Carbohydrate Diet for Obesity NEJM 348:2082-2090, 2003. (begin excerpt) A total of 49 subjects completed 3 months of the study (28 on the low-carbohydrate diet and 21 on the conventional diet), 42 subjects completed 6 months (24 on the low-carbohydrate diet and 18 on the conventional diet), and 37 subjects completed 12 months (20 on the low-carbohydrate diet and 17 on the conventional diet). The percentage of subjects who had dropped out of the study at 3, 6, and 12 months was higher in the group following the conventional diet (30, 40, and 43 percent, respectively) than in the group following the low-carbohydrate diet (15, 27, and 39 percent, respectively), but these differences were not statistically significant. Overall, 59 percent of subjects completed the study, and 88 percent of those who completed the six-month assessment completed the full study. When the analysis included data on subjects who completed the study and data obtained at the time of the last follow-up visit for those who did not complete the study, the pattern of weight loss was similar to that obtained when the base-line values were carried forward in the case of missing data. Subjects on the low-carbohydrate diet lost significantly more weight than the subjects on the conventional diet at 3 months (P=0.002) and 6 months (P=0.03), but the difference in weight loss was not statistically significant at 12 months (P=0.27) (end excerpt) See, Henry, you don't just assume that because someone has received instructions that they follow them. You ask the question, and compare those who do and do not follow directions. In this study, compliance was measured for studying the efficacy of a birth control pill: F. D. Anderson, H Hait. A multicenter, randomized study of an extended cycle oral contraceptive. Contraception Volume 68, Issue 2 , August 2003, Pages 89-96 (begin excerpt) 3.2. Compliance There were two measurements of compliance, which were evaluated by assessing patient diary data as to whether or not a patient took her OC pill every day. Pill compliance within each extended or conventional cycle was determined by observing if the patient missed 2 consecutive days of pill-taking and, if so, the patient was considered to be noncompliant for that cycle. Overall, study compliance was determined by counting the percentage of total days in the 1-year study when the patient took the designated pill for a given day. Overall compliance of 80% would exclude a patient altogether from the Pearl Index calculation. Otherwise, noncompliance within a particular cycle would exclude that cycle only from the Pearl Index. For the life-table calculation, only the overall compliance criterion was used to exclude "noncompliant" patients from the cumulative pregnancy rate calculation, since exclusion of individual cycles from the patient's total would lead to a noncontinuous, intermittently truncated time frame. The overall treatment compliance rate in each of the study groups was very high with 95.4% of extended cycle regimen patients and 93.4% of conventional regimen patients assessed as compliant. A total of 22 (4.8%) extended cycle regimen patients and nine (4.0%) conventional regimen patients were discontinued from the study due to noncompliance. The number of clinically significant protocol deviations was minimal and no protocol deviations were used to exclude any patients from the analysis of efficacy or safety. Most protocol deviations were related to inclusion/exclusion criteria at study enrollment and were not observed during the active study interval. (end excerpt) Now, I know, Henry, that you do consider comparing compliant vs noncompliant groups "meaningless," but when studying the effects of therapy -- or the toxicity in adverse effects -- recognizing that one can both measure and separate compliant from noncompliant groups is important. In the case of looking at pesticide/herbicide toxicity when used as directed, that means actually looking at whether or not it is used as directed. billo |
#21
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Roundup Safety and Toxicity
H. Kuska reply: billo, thank you for your specific examples. Your examples
definitely should clarify to the thread readers how restricted your criteria is. billo's statement: "or the toxicity in adverse effects -- recognizing that one can both measure and separate compliant from noncompliant groups is important. In the case of looking at pesticide/herbicide toxicity when used as directed, that means actually looking at whether or not it is used as directed." and " See, Henry, you don't just assume that because someone has received instructions that they follow them. You ask the question, and compare those who do and do not follow directions." H. Kuska's comment: First I would like to point out that "periodic recertification by completion of a program of education and examination." Note the "and examination". Your suggested additional checks are impractical in the "real world". Even observing and / or asking is not going to give 100 % assurance that a product is going to be used "as directed" when the inspector is not present. Remember there would be a risk of losing a license I again submit that this group is as close as one can come to "real world" assurance that the product is being used as directed. We live in an imperfect world. You would need closely controlled human subjects (100 % utilization observation). This is impractical so animal studies are substituted: ------------------------------------------------------------------ Title: Effect of the herbicide glyphosate on enzymatic activity in pregnant rats and their fetuses. Authors: Daruich, Jorgelina; Zirulnik, Fanny; Sofia Gimenez, Maria. Authors affiliation: Catedra de Bioquimica Molecular, Area Quimica Biologica, Facultad de Quimica, Bioquimica y Farmacia, Universidad Nacional de San Luis, San Luis, Argent. Published in: Environmental Research (2001), 85(3), 226-231. Abstract: To prevent health risk from environmental chems., particularly for progeny, the authors studied the effects of the herbicide glyphosate on several enzymes of pregnant rats. The authors studied 3 cytosolic enzymes; isocitrate dehydrogenase-NADP dependent, glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase, and malic dehydrogenase in liver, heart, and brain of pregnant Wistar rats. The treatment was administered during the 21 days of pregnancy, with 1 wk as an acclimation period. The results suggest that maternal exposure to agrochems. during pregnancy induces a variety of functional abnormalities in the specific activity of the enzymes in the studied organs of the pregnant rats and their fetuses. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------- But this does not meet your very restricted "criteria" since we are now not looking at "humans". I still submit that your stated criteria as you have restricted it is worthless. I am interested in how safe the product is in real world usage (the intended use, not considering suicide, chemical warfare, or other utilizations that the manufacture obviously cannot be held accountable for). An example would be Teddy Bears with removable glass eyes. A strict interpretation would be that they are safe when used as intended, but practically they are unsafe in real world use. The Minnesota paper gives me the type of information I am interested in; and the reading that I have done suggests, to me, that obstetricians would base their "real world" advice to pregnant mothers on studies of how dangerous the product is in the "real world". I have already presented the March of Dimes information. Here is another: "Avoid working with chemicals, solvents, fumes and radiation." from http://www.sogc.org/healthybeginnings/tips.htm home page is http://sogc.medical.org/index.html These two recommendations are "real world" recommendations. Henry Kuska, retired http://home.neo.rr.com/kuska/ |
#22
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Roundup Safety and Toxicity
Second hand smoke - this is another topic which would be more appropriate
for another discussion group; but for those interested, here is the MedLine search for the keywords "second hand smoke" (to find all articles related to this subject, a number of different sets of keywords would have to be used in separate searches): http://www.scirus.com/search_simple/...on&rankin g=1 Henry Kuska, retired http://home.neo.rr.com/kuska/ |
#23
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Roundup Safety and Toxicity
In article ,
Henry Kuska wrote: Second hand smoke - this is another topic which would be more appropriate for another discussion group; but for those interested, here is the MedLine search for the keywords "second hand smoke" (to find all articles related to this subject, a number of different sets of keywords would have to be used in separate searches): http://www.scirus.com/search_simple/...on&rankin g=1 Henry Kuska, retired http://home.neo.rr.com/kuska/ A more profitable search would be to use the term "passive" rather than "second hand" and to use MEDLINE. billo |
#24
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Roundup Safety and Toxicity
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#25
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Roundup Safety and Toxicity
It seems to me that the article referred by Mr. Kuska noted an increased
risk of birth defects when glycophospate was used in combination with other pesticides and there has been some debate about how common this is in the real world, (whatever the real world is). However, most pesticides are persistent in the environment and end up being stored in the fat of animals higher up on the food chain, including humans. Most, if not all, of us are still carrying residues of DDT used long ago in North America, (and still being used in South America) - as well as residues of pesticides currently approved. So none of us on the planet are "pesticide free" - although it would be hard to say whether the amounts present in our blood stream (released whenever fat is burned for energy) would be at a level sufficient to activate the increased risk from glycophospate found in this study of agricultural workers. I guess my point is that "safe when used as directed" is not quite as straightforward a statement as it might appear, because we are living in a complex world now of chemical interactions not conceived of even 100 years ago, when plants were either poisonous or not, or water was either potable or not........ One need only look at the literature on prescription drug interactions, as well as drug/food, drug/herb interactions, to realize that life is seldom as simple as those statements that appear on labels. On balance, I'd say that many of the chemicals and drugs discoverd in the past century have vastly improved our lives, but that's not the same as saying that they are risk-free - and some which were miracles in their time have created nightmares later, as in the supermicrobes now resisitant to practically everything in the medical arsenal. I think many here are reacting not so much to Round Up as being the baddest chemical on the block, but rather to the notion that it is wise to place all of one's faith in a miracle chemical - because the history of the past century has not borne out that trust. |
#26
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Roundup Safety and Toxicity
"gregpresley" wrote in
: I think many here are reacting not so much to Round Up as being the baddest chemical on the block, but rather to the notion that it is wise to place all of one's faith in a miracle chemical - because the history of the past century has not borne out that trust. Exactly right, and distrusting anyone who _is_ that faithfull. Ursa.. -- ================================== Ursa (Major)/ \ *-*-* * ___________/====================================\_______*-*______ |
#28
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Roundup Safety and Toxicity
Regarding the articles concerning second hand smoke that billo refered to:
I have started a new thread (with links) on an environmental forum for those who are interested: http://nature.gardenweb.com/forums/l...0012079.html?1 Henry Kuska, retired http://home.neo.rr.com/kuska/ "Bill Oliver" wrote in message ... In article , Betsy -0 wrote: Kindly cite that study about second hand smoke. No problem. Enstron, JE, Kabat, GC. Environmental tobacco smoke and tobacco related mortality in a prospective study of Californians, 1960-98. BMJ. 2003 May 17;326(7398):1057. It is a study of 35,561 never-smokers with a smoking spouse. The full text can be found online through pubmed, or directly from BMJ: http://bmj.com/cgi/content/full/326/7398/1057 And, please cite all the studies that contradict it. Read the many comments that the BMJ put online. I will quote from two. Perhaps the best was an editorial in the Canadian Medical Association Journal, which addresses the general habit of obsessing about extremely small risk factors: _______ Polemic and public health, CMAJ 169 (3): 181 (2003) (begin excerpt) [snip] The problem with the data on passive smoking (and many other potential environmental hazards) is that the estimated risks are so close to zero. The study published in BMJ showed that the risks of heart disease, lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease among never-smokers living with a smoker compared to never-smokers living with a nonsmoker were 0.94 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85?1.05), 0.75 (95% CI 0.42?1.35) and 1.27 (95% CI 0.78?2.08) respectively, all statistically insignificant and none very large. Fifty-three years ago BMJ published research by Doll and Hill on 649 men who had lung cancer and compared their smoking habits with a group of 649 comparable men who did not have lung cancer.3 The risk (odds ratio) of lung cancer among smokers compared to nonsmokers was 14.0, meaning that smokers were 14 times more likely to develop lung cancer than nonsmokers. This result is interesting for 3 reasons. First, it is instructive that this huge increase in risk was not apparent from casual observation: because most men smoked, the effects of this behaviour were inapparent. Second, although even these astonishingly high risks were disputed, this study (and others that followed) marked the start of a long but steady decline in smoking among men, followed decades later by a decline in deaths from lung cancer. Third, from the perspective of almost all current research on environmental hazards, in which odds ratios of 1.2 (or an increase of risk of 20%) are considered sufficient to prompt action by public health advocates (or social hygienists?), perhaps we should ask if we are sometimes overzealous in our attempts to publicize and regulate small hazards. It is impossible to control completely for confounding variables in observational studies. The smaller the risk estimate, the greater the chance that confounding factors will distort it and invalidate it. This is not to say that observational studies should be abandoned. Faced with the results of the recent study we can, as individuals, elect to change our behaviours and possibly our risk exposures. But, when interpreting the results and then championing public policy and legislation to regulate exposure, we must be doubly wary of tailoring statistics to fit the current fashion. We must be open with our doubts, honest in our interpretations and cautious in our recommendations. Exaggerated claims of risk will only erode the credibility and effectiveness of public health. (end excerpt) The second provides an off-the-cuff metanalysis: Gian L. Turci "What killer? Let's call things with their name." BMJ Rapid Responses, 19 May 2003 http://bmj.com/cgi/eletters/326/7398/1057#32320 The situation on passive smoke is quite simple. The heterogeneity of the studies militates against a formal meta-analysis, and the general and admitted weakness of results rather favors a simple eyeball appraisal. Out of a total of 123 studies (excluding this last one) 16 have shown a risk elevation for cancer, 30 have shown a benefit from exposure, all the rest failed to demonstrate either way. Out of the 16 studies mentioned above, NONE showed an elevation of risk greater than 20 percent. We all know that in this kind of epidemiology, it takes an odds ratio elevation of 200% or more just to demonstrate that a correlation EXISTS. The US National Cancer Institute affirms that "Relative risks of less than 2 are considered small and are usually difficult to interpret. Such increases may be due to chance, statistical bias, or the effect of confounding factors [other causes] that are sometimes not evident"- and this is just an example. Thus, the 16 studies could not even demonstrate unequivocally the existence of a correlation. The evidence for other diseases attributed to passive smoking is even weaker. What killer? Propaganda and instigation of hysteria (whether done by public institutions or otherwise) do not constitute proof or evidence -- unless, of course, we want to tell the truth and use the real names: intolerance and prohibitionism; but please do not call it scientific demonstration, for that insults science and intelligence! billo |
#29
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Roundup Safety and Toxicity
In article ,
Siberian Husky wrote: Just don't pretend you are doing it on the basis of science. Did I pretend I did it on the basis of science? Just one reminder. Science is not the solution of everything. No, science is not the solution of everything. I did not challenge the anti-Roundup hystterics because they didn't like it on religious principles, matters of faith, aesthetics, whatever. I called them on their pretense that their statements of faith were based on science -- and that they lied about what the science said in order to do it. That is what I object to. billo |
#30
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Roundup Safety and Toxicity
In article ,
Lar wrote: In article 4cf8dc14.0309092251.75c94d86 , says... Just one reminder. Science is not the solution of everything. There are tons of mysteries in gardening, botany and zoology which are not yet solved. One such example is (you can point out I am wrong as I am not too sure) according to aerodynamics, the hummingbirds should not be able to fly at all; at least the aerodynamics engineers cannot explain how they fly. Think that was the bumblebee. .... and a documented urban legend. It is untrue both in the more common claim that scientists "proved" that bumblebees can't fly and in the second claim that aerodynamics engineers cannot explain how they fly. See: http://tinyurl.com/mvnb billo |
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