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#1
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"% Chance of rain"
What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance of rain"?
1) It will rain for 40% of the day. 2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point. I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are completely different meanings. |
#2
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"% Chance of rain"
On 20/07/2017 12:13, James Wilkinson Sword wrote:
What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance of rain"? 1) It will rain for 40% of the day. 2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point. I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are completely different meanings. I think it means 2 |
#3
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"% Chance of rain"
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:22:20 +0100, Ash Burton wrote:
On 20/07/2017 12:13, James Wilkinson Sword wrote: What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance of rain"? 1) It will rain for 40% of the day. 2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point. I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are completely different meanings. I think it means 2 So pretty useless then. I have no idea if it will be for 20 minutes or the entire day. -- You may be a cunning linguist, but I am a master debater. |
#4
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"% Chance of rain"
On 20/07/17 12:27, Jethro_uk wrote:
I cynically suspect that whatever methodology is being used, it allows a retrospective "we got it right" approach. The politically correct uncertainty principle. The more technically correct a statment is, the less use it is. -- A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes. |
#5
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"% Chance of rain"
On 2017-07-20 11:13:43 +0000, James Wilkinson Sword said:
What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance of rain"? 1) It will rain for 40% of the day. 2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point. I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are completely different meanings. It means there is a 40% chance that it will rain in the area to which the forecast applies and during the period (often a day) specified. It never means (1) and does not depend on the forecaster and is not a matter of belief. Nor, happily, does it depend on google. -- Asha minnies.opcop.org.uk nature.opcop.org.uk pictures.opcop.org.uk |
#6
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"% Chance of rain"
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:22:20 +0100, Ash Burton
wrote: On 20/07/2017 12:13, James Wilkinson Sword wrote: What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance of rain"? 1) It will rain for 40% of the day. 2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point. I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are completely different meanings. I think it means 2 Yesterday Accuweather MinuteCast was showing no rain for at least 120mins - I only looked at the site because it was raining and I hadn't noticed a forecast for it. -- AnthonyL |
#7
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"% Chance of rain"
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:46:10 +0100, AnthonyL wrote:
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:22:20 +0100, Ash Burton wrote: On 20/07/2017 12:13, James Wilkinson Sword wrote: What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance of rain"? 1) It will rain for 40% of the day. 2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point. I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are completely different meanings. I think it means 2 Yesterday Accuweather MinuteCast was showing no rain for at least 120mins - I only looked at the site because it was raining and I hadn't noticed a forecast for it. The best forecast I've found (if I'm already where I'm going to be and haven't moved in the last day) is my watch. It takes a pressure reading every minute and draws a graph of the next 12 hours of weather. Basically I look out the window and look at the graph, if it's going down then I know the weather will end up worse than it already is. -- Heaven is where the police are British, the chefs Italian, the mechanics German, the lovers French and it is all organized by the Swiss. Hell is where the police are German, the chefs British, the mechanics French, the lovers Swiss and it is all organized by Italians. |
#8
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"% Chance of rain"
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:44:54 +0100, Asha Santon wrote:
On 2017-07-20 11:13:43 +0000, James Wilkinson Sword said: What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance of rain"? 1) It will rain for 40% of the day. 2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point. I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are completely different meanings. It means there is a 40% chance that it will rain in the area to which the forecast applies and during the period (often a day) specified. It never means (1) and does not depend on the forecaster and is not a matter of belief. Nor, happily, does it depend on google. So it's utterly useless then? 40% chance of rain could mean there's a 40% chance I'll get a light shower for half an hour at some point, or it could mean there's a 40% chance it will bucket down all day. They should estimate the AMOUNT of rain that is going to fall, eg so many mm. -- I don't care what they say, I don't think "phone sex" is any fun at all, unless you happen to be in the same booth with her. |
#9
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"% Chance of rain"
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:27:17 +0100, Jethro_uk wrote:
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:13:43 +0100, James Wilkinson Sword wrote: What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance of rain"? 1) It will rain for 40% of the day. 2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point. I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are completely different meanings. I've taken it to mean that the chance of rain within the forecast area is 40%, which is subtly different. In the last month, the Met Office has issued 3 48 hours weather warnings for rain for my area. However, the chance of rain each time never exceeded 5%. I cynically suspect that whatever methodology is being used, it allows a retrospective "we got it right" approach. I suspect that also. -- Change is inevitable, except from a vending machine. |
#10
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"% Chance of rain"
On 2017-07-20 11:58:05 +0000, James Wilkinson Sword said:
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:44:54 +0100, Asha Santon wrote: On 2017-07-20 11:13:43 +0000, James Wilkinson Sword said: What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance of rain"? 1) It will rain for 40% of the day. 2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point. I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are completely different meanings. It means there is a 40% chance that it will rain in the area to which the forecast applies and during the period (often a day) specified. It never means (1) and does not depend on the forecaster and is not a matter of belief. Nor, happily, does it depend on google. So it's utterly useless then? 40% chance of rain could mean there's a 40% chance I'll get a light shower for half an hour at some point, or it could mean there's a 40% chance it will bucket down all day. They should estimate the AMOUNT of rain that is going to fall, eg so many mm. No, not useless. Some forecast services offer the probability for each hour of the day which is more than sufficient. It has happened on occasion that I have looked out of my front window and it has been raining while out of the rear window it has been sunny and dry. There is no way for a forecast to be that precise and 50% chance of rain would be a perfect forecast for that. Unless it is an unusual event, there is no way to predict the amount of rain which will fall on any given occasion. That is why they don't do it. If the risk of rain is say 90% then a forecaster may well say it 'will' rain but with a island weather, it is seldom so easy. All forecasts are verbalised accounts of probabilities (or risks) of events happening and that is all there is. The science does not exist, and probably never will, to accurately predict wat are virtually random events. -- Asha minnies.opcop.org.uk nature.opcop.org.uk pictures.opcop.org.uk |
#11
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"% Chance of rain"
"James Wilkinson Sword" wrote in message
news What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance of rain"? 1) It will rain for 40% of the day. 2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point. I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are completely different meanings. Given that it includes the word "chance" (ie probability) I'd interpret it as the second meaning: if (hypothetically) you replayed the day many times (Groundhog Day!) then approx 40% of the occurrences of the day would have some rain. |
#12
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CAUTION! The Pathological Attention Whore Strikes, AGAIN! BG
On 2017-07-20 13:48:07 +0000, The Peeler said:
nothing of note Indeed you have struck again. welcome to my killfile. plonk er -- Asha minnies.opcop.org.uk nature.opcop.org.uk pictures.opcop.org.uk |
#13
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"% Chance of rain"
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 11:46:10 GMT, lid (AnthonyL)
wrote: Yesterday Accuweather MinuteCast was showing no rain for at least 120mins I must confess that when I saw the OP, I had two thoughts; "An obvious troll, considering the entity posting is new, and posted to two unrelated groups, one of which is troll fodder." "Typical broadcast weather type, who really wants to be....a lumberjack!" (now that song will be running around in my head all day). --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. http://www.avg.com |
#14
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"% Chance of rain"
Gary Woods wrote:
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 11:46:10 GMT, lid (AnthonyL) wrote: Yesterday Accuweather MinuteCast was showing no rain for at least 120mins I must confess that when I saw the OP, I had two thoughts; "An obvious troll, considering the entity posting is new, and posted to two unrelated groups, one of which is troll fodder." "Typical broadcast weather type, who really wants to be....a lumberjack!" (now that song will be running around in my head all day). Your first thought was correct. It's Peter Hucker, ka ------------------------------------------------------- etc. A very well known troll. |
#15
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"% Chance of rain"
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:13:43 +0100, James Wilkinson Sword wrote:
What do you believe weather forecasters mean when they say "40% chance of rain"? 1) It will rain for 40% of the day. 2) There's a 40% chance it will rain at some point. I googled it and apparently it depends on the forecaster? 1) and 2) are completely different meanings. Unless there is high pressure stuck over us you can go to 7 UK forecast sites and get seven different percentages or timings. They all claim to get their information from the Met Office. I don't believe that all seven have in-house meteorologists so who makes it up? -- Jim S |
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